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Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

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Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#21

Post by KeplerBoy »

nabla9 wrote: post #15
gostsamo wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Consider that the chinese might be misrepresenting their costs. A newsletter was implying that they might do it to undermine the sanctions justifications. Agree that the AI bubble should pop though and the earlier, the better.

Their model is open and they published paper describing it https://arxiv.org/pdf/2412.19437 The can't be far off, or it would be noticed. Even if they are heavily government subsidized for energy and hardware, I don see how the cost of training in the US would be more than double.

People on the internet can lie. Especially when such a lie could cause the nasdaq to dip multiple percent points.

Not saying they are lying, but there incentives.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#22

Post by logicchains »

nabla9 wrote: post #15
gostsamo wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Consider that the chinese might be misrepresenting their costs. A newsletter was implying that they might do it to undermine the sanctions justifications. Agree that the AI bubble should pop though and the earlier, the better.

Their model is open and they published paper describing it https://arxiv.org/pdf/2412.19437 The can't be far off, or it would be noticed. Even if they are heavily government subsidized for energy and hardware, I don see how the cost of training in the US would be more than double.

They express their cost in terms of GPU hours, then convert that to USD based on market GPU rental rates, so it's not affected by subsidies. It's possible however they lied about GPU hours, but if that was the case an expert should be able to show they lied by working out how many flops are needed to train based on the amount of tokens they say they used vs the flops of the GPUs they say they used.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#23

Post by HPsquared »

dogma1138 wrote: post #6

Good time to buy then, I don’t understand how stupid some traders can be. A more efficient model is better for NVIDIA not worse. More compute is still better given the same model. And as more efficient models proliferate it means more edge computing which means more customers with lower negotiating power than Meta and Google… This is like thinking that if people need to dig only 1 day instead of an entire month to ge…

In said gold rush scenario, the price of gold itself would have collapsed.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#24

Post by negamax »

nabla9 wrote: post #2

Nvidia -13% in Frankfurt stock market just now. Valuations of private unicorns like OpenAi and Anthropic must be in free fall. DeepSeek spends $6 million in old H800 hardware to develop open source model that overtakes ChatGPT. AI gets better, but profit margins sink with strong competition. Chinese AI startup DeepSeek overtakes ChatGPT on Apple App Store https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42839656 Edit: Nvidia now…

The bigger correction will be in tech stocks that are overly exposed to datacenter investments to accommodate for ever rising AI demands. MSFT, AMZN, META they are all exposed

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#25

Post by nobunaga »

dogma1138 wrote: post #14
diegocg wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nvidia is way too overvalued regardless of deepseek or the success of AI. This is just some correction (not even too big even considering the current bubble), these traders are not stupid.

NVIDIA has a P/E ratio of 56 that’s double that of the S&P 500 but half that of AMD and the same one as Meta. And whether it’s overvalued or not isn’t relevant that selling a stock because the product the company produces is now even more effective is mind bogglingly stupid.

AMD does not have a PE double of NVIDIA. PE is high because of amortisation of an acquisition. People on hackernews talk a lot but have no idea what they talk about. You might know how to write javascript or some other language but clearly you have not read the earnings reports or financials of AMD and probably alot of the other companies you talk about. So please stop spreading nonsense.

Just for those that clearly have no idea https://old.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/1d2okn1/when_wil...

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#26

Post by pjc50 »

The whole AI valuation was based on being able to rent-seek a significant chunk of all white collar salaries, with a permanent monopoly moat because nobody else would pay hundreds of billions to train models.

And yet again a cheaper Chinese product turns up and everyone loses their minds. Expect a ban incoming to preserve the AI valuations.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#27

Post by belter »

dogma1138 wrote: post #6

Good time to buy then, I don’t understand how stupid some traders can be. A more efficient model is better for NVIDIA not worse. More compute is still better given the same model. And as more efficient models proliferate it means more edge computing which means more customers with lower negotiating power than Meta and Google… This is like thinking that if people need to dig only 1 day instead of an entire month to ge…

NVDA is a totally manipulated stock. The company beat earnings in the last three quarters and the stock dropped 15% to 20% immediately after the results release.

Every single time...

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#28

Post by myth_drannon »

negamax wrote: post #24
nabla9 wrote: post #2

Nvidia -13% in Frankfurt stock market just now. Valuations of private unicorns like OpenAi and Anthropic must be in free fall. DeepSeek spends $6 million in old H800 hardware to develop open source model that overtakes ChatGPT. AI gets better, but profit margins sink with strong competition. Chinese AI startup DeepSeek overtakes ChatGPT on Apple App Store https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42839656 Edit: Nvidia now…

The bigger correction will be in tech stocks that are overly exposed to datacenter investments to accommodate for ever rising AI demands. MSFT, AMZN, META they are all exposed

MSFT is down 7%

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#29

Post by WithinReason »

dogma1138 wrote: post #6

Good time to buy then, I don’t understand how stupid some traders can be. A more efficient model is better for NVIDIA not worse. More compute is still better given the same model. And as more efficient models proliferate it means more edge computing which means more customers with lower negotiating power than Meta and Google… This is like thinking that if people need to dig only 1 day instead of an entire month to ge…

Indeed:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

In economics, the Jevons paradox occurs when technological progress increases the efficiency with which a resource is used, but the falling cost of use induces increases in demand enough that resource use is increased, rather than reduced.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#30

Post by BoredPositron »

KeplerBoy wrote: post #21
nabla9 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their model is open and they published paper describing it https://arxiv.org/pdf/2412.19437 The can't be far off, or it would be noticed. Even if they are heavily government subsidized for energy and hardware, I don see how the cost of training in the US would be more than double.

People on the internet can lie. Especially when such a lie could cause the nasdaq to dip multiple percent points. Not saying they are lying, but there incentives.

Huggingface is reproducing it live on their blog…
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