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Good time to buy then, I don’t understand how stupid some traders can be. A more efficient model is better for NVIDIA not worse. More compute is still better given the same model. And as more efficient models proliferate it means more edge computing which means more customers with lower negotiating power than Meta and Google… This is like thinking that if people need to dig only 1 day instead of an entire month to ge…
Good time to buy then, I don’t understand how stupid some traders can be. A more efficient model is better for NVIDIA not worse. More compute is still better given the same model. And as more efficient models proliferate it means more edge computing which means more customers with lower negotiating power than Meta and Google… This is like thinking that if people need to dig only 1 day instead of an entire month to ge…
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Nvidia is way too overvalued regardless of deepseek or the success of AI. This is just some correction (not even too big even considering the current bubble), these traders are not stupid.
I agree with Aswath Damodaran here. NVDA is priced for perfection in AI, but also whatever is next. In addition, IMO NVDA’s margins are a gift and a curse. They look great to investors, but also mean all their customers are aggressively looking to produce their own GPUs.
This is an example of a recurrent phenomenon in politics. Trump comes in with big plans, this and that, threatening countries, deporting people, a clear agenda to take America to the hard right. Isolationism, crush China, screw every other country over, etc. etc. And then - something completely unexpected, a total curveball - arrives a week into office and everything changes. Your agenda collapses and you enter react…
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> DeepSeek spends $6 million in old H800 hardware to develop open source model that overtakes ChatGPT. DeepSeek claims that's what they spent. They're under a trade embargo, and if they had access to any more than that it would have been obtained illegally. They might be telling the truth, but let's wait until someone else replicates it before we fully accept it.
They have a lot of H100: https://www.reddit.com/r/NVDA_Stock/comments/1iadc0s/evidenc...
It's funny the bubble seems popping because the tech can be made better or cheaper instead due to loss of enthusiasm for the tech itself. AI is here to stay I suppose then.
If anything Meta and other foundation model companies should be dropping. What's the moat? DeepSeek is releasing stuff for free.
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Nvidia is way too overvalued regardless of deepseek or the success of AI. This is just some correction (not even too big even considering the current bubble), these traders are not stupid.
I agree with Aswath Damodaran here. NVDA is priced for perfection in AI, but also whatever is next. In addition, IMO NVDA’s margins are a gift and a curse. They look great to investors, but also mean all their customers are aggressively looking to produce their own GPUs.
I’m surprised they haven’t yet.
This is an example of a recurrent phenomenon in politics. Trump comes in with big plans, this and that, threatening countries, deporting people, a clear agenda to take America to the hard right. Isolationism, crush China, screw every other country over, etc. etc. And then - something completely unexpected, a total curveball - arrives a week into office and everything changes. Your agenda collapses and you enter react…
Where has Trump's agenda collapsed? I might have missed the press release.
And why would a curveball on AI throw off an agenda around trade, immigration and military engagement? I don't follow.
China could take the lead on AI and I don't see it would impact any of those things. Isn't DeepSeek open source? The US already has access to it, so what leverage could China possible have?
> A more cynical observer might suggest that _the timing was no coincidence_.
Do you feel the Chinese government closely controls AI research and timed this response?
Any evidence for that?
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Put more simply: The stock market is not a reflection of the economy. Wall Street is not Main Street.
It's a reflection of expectations about the future economy. Obviously, such expectations are not always accurate because humans are quite fallible when trying to predict the future. This is even more true when there is a lot of hype about a certain product. Yesterdays price of (say) NVidia was based on the expectation that companies would need to buy N billion of USD of GPUs per year. Now Deepseek comes out and makes…
So if the stock market was reflective of the economy (future or the present) then stocks should go up, instead they're going down. Why? Because the stock market is not reflective of the economy.
The stock market is essentially a reflection of societal perception. DJT which was brought up earlier is a great example, because the price of DJT has next to nothing to do with Trump's businesses and almost everything to do with how he is perceived (and remember there is no such thing as bad publicity).
Personally I think the fall will be momentary and followed shortly by a climb to recovery and beyond, but who really knows.
If you don't want to lose your money: Don't let the sensationalist financial journalists and pundits get to you, don't let big red numbers in your portfolio scare you, ignore traders (they all lose their money), don't sell your stocks unless you actually need that money for something right now, re-read your investment manifesto if you have one, and maybe buy the dip for shits and giggles if you have some spare cash laying around.
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Nvidia is way too overvalued regardless of deepseek or the success of AI. This is just some correction (not even too big even considering the current bubble), these traders are not stupid.
agreed but ASML has been chronically undervalued forever.