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Is the world becoming uninsurable?

charleshughsmith.substack.com

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Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#411

Not uninsurable, but buildings are going to have to become tougher. It's happened before. Chicago's reaction to the Great Fire was simple - no more building wooden houses. Chicago went all brick. Still is, mostly. The trouble is, brick isn't earthquake resistant. Not without steel reinforcement. I live in a house built of cinder block filled with concrete reinforced with steel. A commercial builder built this as his…

> The trouble is, brick isn't earthquake resistant. Not without steel reinforcement.

It's just a matter of throwing a couple hundreds $ of metal and cement every few rows of bricks, like this: https://www.pointp.fr/asset/27/07/AST212707-XL.jpg when you see how much american spend on houses it's a drop in the ocean.

FYI a two storey 10x10m house will run you less than 10k euros in bricks for the external walls, and that's with 30cm wide honeycomb bricks which probably provide enough thermal insulation as is for LA. Add 10k of rockwool insulation and you're good to go for most places.

You use wood for simple reasons: it's widely available, that's the only thing your workers are trained on, it's cheaper so builders make more money, it's faster and allow crazier design (mcmansions). Same thing for asphalt shingles, nobody uses that, it needs constant replacement, but it's cheaper, easier/faster to install.

In europe we mostly build rectangles with simple two pitch roofs, ceramic tiles that last 50+ years, most of them are made of bricks, even in seismically active countries like Italy.

Europe: https://www.philomag.com/sites/default/files/styles/article_...

US: https://www.reviewjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/950...

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why does State Farm in particular have a moral obligation to insure you against fire if it’s not profitable for them to do so? To pick random examples of unrelated companies, McDonalds or SpaceX would also refuse to insure you against fire. Why should people hate State Farm for this reason, but not McDonalds or SpaceX? If State Farm didn’t exist and the state ran insurance instead, and were willing to insure all come…

[flagged]

Why?

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#413

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> most of the time, they're optimistic. Evidence? Has anyone collated predictions over time and compared them with outcomes to date? I can remember a number of specific predictions (e.g. that snow would be unknown in most of the UK by the early 2000s) that were pessimistic. Of course, I recall those because they got a lot of media attention at the time and the media reporting is biased to the most extreme predictions…

HN just had a "Whoops we undercounted plant C02 absorption by 40% for the last 40 years" post so I would say the errors mostly go in one direction.

I don't understand this reasoning. How does the presence of a single recent post on HN say anything about if the errors go in one direction or in both directions?

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#415

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair we are talking about an area of the country that is prone to seismic activity, it does limit the building materials. Perhaps what should be more commonly accepted is that the US is a land of great natural beauty! And large tracts of it should be left to nature. What's the average monthly leccy bill in Phoenix during the summer? $400? Where does LA get most of its water? Local sources? I don't think that's…

> To be fair we are talking about an area of the country that is prone to seismic activity, it does limit the building materials. Japan comes to mind as a country that's solved this. > Where does LA get most of its water? Local sources? I don't think that's the case. Relevant: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2025-01-10/as-flame...

Sure Japan did it, so did Mexico. The latter is probably much more important as an example for the US.

https://www.preventionweb.net/news/not-drill-how-1985-disast...

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#416
Some years ago I contracted for a mega-big-global insurance company.

They would spread leaflets/internal publications on "Risk Profile for the Year 20##" every year. And they would issue updates every Q or H.

Insurance companies monitor every-little-thing. If it hasn't rained for X days in Z country, they KNOW IT, monitor it, and accordingly change policies, premiums, etc.

I always tell people that the most lucrative job (imho) is "Actuary" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Actuary) so for anyone who is young enough to make a career change or have kids on the verge of picking directions/professions, "Actuary" for-the-win!!

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#417
It's a financial problem, ultimately. Living in Antarctica is difficult and expensive because of the conditions, but with enough money it's manageable.

California is not very hospitable on its own but with human intervention it was made liveable. But that is now running out, because e.g. the water supply is no longer adequate for what is used.

But this is the difficult situation we find ourselves in; due to climate change, hospitable areas are no longer hospitable, and while you can throw money at the problem, it becomes exponentially more expensive to continue to live there. If this continues, it will trigger a (mass) migration. This can be applied everywhere, and the phrase "climate change will trigger mass migrations" has been uttered many times already. It however feels like people only considered this to be a problem in e.g. the global south, affecting poor people because they don't have the financial means to shape the earth and their living conditions by throwing money at the problem.

I live in the Netherlands that for hundreds of years has thrown money and resources at the problem that it's below sea level and prone to flooding. We're still managing, but still get flooding in some places due to e.g. heavy rains deeper in Europe. But if the sea level goes up enough, either we'll have to spend billions in building higher sea walls... or abandon regions entirely. The worst case predictions mention a 2.5 meter sea level rise by 2100, that'll definitely test our infrastructure to put it mildly.

(this comment was a reply first but moved it to a top level one because I added my main article comment as well).

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#419

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Climate change enters the chat...

Even pessimistic scenarios don't predict threats to buildings (other than war, which to my knowledge never was insurable) in most areas of the world.

> Even pessimistic scenarios don't predict threats to buildings

Floods, storms, droughts, fire? They appear to be getting worse.

More restrictive codes designed for better fireproofing buildings, for instance, can solve a number of problems in California in fire prone areas. Another thing that has a political solution is forest management. Lack of water can be solved by desalination, which becomes an energy problem rather than a water one. Very dry areas can benefit from solar panels because they reduce water loss from evaporation, thus reducing the pressure on water supplies.

It is expensive, but that's another problem.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#420

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe be there is no longer "cheap" and that's the issue

I don't understand the downvote. I think this hit the nail on its head. People whine about insurances pulling out. All they want is for somebody else to pay for their risk. It's their choice to live in that area, they should bear the consequences. It's not like it is or has ever been a secret. Climate change is known for decades now. Many people just chose not to "believe" in it. Well, their choice, but now that sh*…

But this cuts both ways. The insurers chose to provide their services in the area for the amount of money agreed upon. If anyone was more aware of the risks and probabilities, it's them.

Why do they get to pull out now when it's time to hold their end of the contract?

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