Former CEO of AXA, a major French insurer, famously announced that a world at +4°C would be "uninsurrable" [1]. That was 10 years ago. It's true that most predictions about climate are wrong - most of the time, they're optimistic. (Not always, fortunately [2]) [1] https://www.leparisien.fr/economie/business/special-cop21-un... [2] https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/emissions-are-no-longer-fo...
> most of the time, they're optimistic. Evidence? Has anyone collated predictions over time and compared them with outcomes to date? I can remember a number of specific predictions (e.g. that snow would be unknown in most of the UK by the early 2000s) that were pessimistic. Of course, I recall those because they got a lot of media attention at the time and the media reporting is biased to the most extreme predictions…
Is the world becoming uninsurable?
401–410 of 1001 posts
Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?
#402Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't know about that. The Iberian peninsula is not historically at much risk for natural disasters, and we now suffer alternating forest fires and floods pretty much every year...
I remember forest fires yearly in northern Spain in the 80s. Are they more violent now?
Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?
#403A friend owns a Land Rover with such a notoriously bad engine that insurers refuse to insure it. Land Rover had to make their own car insurance [1].
Another friend owns an electric car that is becoming increasingly uninsurable. I'm told that due to the battery, any significant collision defaults to a complete destruction of the vehicle and not a repair. The second-hand market for electric cars is also terrible, almost no car dealer will touch them in the UK.
Another friend had a car that was insured for £5k, but it was actually worth more. An accident occurred that completely destroyed the car in a fire, and they offered £1.5k. They approached the insurer and said if £1.5k is adequate to replace the vehicle, then they could simply drop a vehicle off instead. Eventually they increased the amount to £2.5k, half of their own estimate, and far less than the vehicles actual worth.
Another friend got into an accident and was permanently injured. They got an initial offer from the other insurance company, which their insurance said to decline as they believed they should expect more. Several years of slow progress, with the original insurer shutting down and passing their work to several other insurers, they were told too much time had elapsed and they should have gone for the original amount. They offered a £50 "good will gesture" and then closed the case. In the UK we have the Financial Ombudsman for insurance disputes [2], which after review decided that £50 was perfectly adequate.
Another friend had their vehicle temporarily ceased by the police (the police were wrong to do so in this case, but you have zero right to appeal). They lost one of the sets of keys for the vehicle and scratched the car. The police told the person there was nothing they could do, and to claim on the insurance. They instead paid for the damage themselves, because the insurance premiums on such a claim would not be worth it. Just tonight I saw something similar where somebody's mirror was damaged in a hit & run, choosing to fix it themselves to avoid insurance premiums increase.
I used to send out parcels and insure them, but several parcels arrived damaged (admitted by the couriers) and they said they needed proof of packaging the items correctly. From therein I would video the packaging of all items and something occurred again, but they made it impossible to actually use their insurance.
My point is this: Getting insurance is becoming increasingly difficult, but also getting the insurer to honour their agreement is becoming increasingly difficult. In the UK you are legally required to have car insurance, but they are clearly robbing people with no recourse to justice. The system is already broken and not fit for purpose.
[1] https://insurance.landrover.co.uk/
[2] https://www.financial-ombudsman.org.uk/consumers/complaints-...
Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?
#404Not uninsurable, but buildings are going to have to become tougher. It's happened before. Chicago's reaction to the Great Fire was simple - no more building wooden houses. Chicago went all brick. Still is, mostly. The trouble is, brick isn't earthquake resistant. Not without steel reinforcement. I live in a house built of cinder block filled with concrete reinforced with steel. A commercial builder built this as his…
When I briefly lived in Oklahoma I found it frustrating that they use stick frame construction for homes and apartment buildings. Even when we know how to build much safer wind resistant houses. What I thought was worse was once a tornado rips up a neighborhood builders are allowed to build replacement stick framed homes.
Genuine question. Does this story get told to children in Oklahoma, and if so, don’t the children think to themselves “wtf parents, have you seen our house?”.
Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?
#405Earlier quoted context omitted.
A significant portion of human structures are located close to the coast (seaborne trade having been a huge enabler of economic development for a few hundred years) and are exposed to flooding from rising sea levels, or built in valleys that are increasingly at risk from flooding due to far-above-long-term-historic-norms precipitation runoff (higher atmospheric temps lead to more energy in weather systems; see eg mas…
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Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?
#406Earlier quoted context omitted.
If the regulators have defined 'price gouging' as a price substantially below the break even mark, literally any profitable insurance product is implicitly believed by them to be price gouging. The US does a weird thing where "insurance" no longer means pooling risk but some sort of transfer payment welfare system. If they're going to define "price gouging" as profitable activity it is hard to see how the economy is…
The math of insurance suggests that, if it needs to be widely carried (either due to things like mortgage requirements, or the simple realization most people don't have enough resources to absorb a major catastrophe themselves), the most economical way to go is to have a single risk pool that's as broad and diverse as possible, so it can swallow a large clustered crisis more easily. Yes, this is a bit of robbing Pete…
That's the only way.
> which will be unviable as a business and probably politically touchy too
Why would it be? If you live in Los Angeles - doesn't mean you don't need insurance (even if it several times the cost of insurance in the safer areas).
> or you can include them in the broad pool
No, you can't. Your competitor who doesn't do this will offer cheaper insurance - because they doesn't distribute high risk of small group to everybody else.
> the people with a full-cinderblock home in a non-flammable state pay $20 more a year so the entire endeavour can work.
Why would they do that? 20 bucks is 20 bucks.
> The concept probably works better if you have some concept of social cohesion to lean on
You mean if you with totalitarian governance deprive people of the ability to choose? Yeah, that could work. I mean, that's how the gulags were justified.
Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?
#407Earlier quoted context omitted.
Climate change enters the chat...
Pole drift.
Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?
#408Earlier quoted context omitted.
+4°C is to the upper end of projections if it did (which is not probable) happen it'd take until the end of the century if we were to get there the entire world will be a different place; everything will have advanced so we won't be insuring our present world with our current knowledge and current tech but a future world with future knowledge and future tech
Not everything advances. We still have houses built in the 1800s/1900s that are usable in predictable/similar climates/circumstances. A changing climate changes that. Sure, we could bulldoze everything and build new stuff that can handle a +2C, +3C, +4C, etc... world, but that's expensive.
Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?
#409Not uninsurable, but buildings are going to have to become tougher. It's happened before. Chicago's reaction to the Great Fire was simple - no more building wooden houses. Chicago went all brick. Still is, mostly. The trouble is, brick isn't earthquake resistant. Not without steel reinforcement. I live in a house built of cinder block filled with concrete reinforced with steel. A commercial builder built this as his…
https://nypost.com/2025/01/15/real-estate/passive-house-surv...
Metal roof, passive house so embers don’t get sucked in. Concrete walls around the property and plants that don’t contribute to the fire.
The house might cost an additional $100k to build compared to conventional. But it would make all that back on energy, roofing, and insurance costs- probably at the point the conventional home would need a roof replacement.
Builders don’t build such houses unless a client or building code mandates it.
Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?
#410American, living in area prone to natural disasters: "Is the WHOLE WORLD becoming uninsurable?" The answer is obviously "no" since there are other parts of the world that don't live on a hurricane highway nor build houses made from firewood in an area prone to wildfires.
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