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Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

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Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#61

Post by jitl »

Etheryte wrote: post #22
wodderam wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kai-Fu Lee describes the culture so well in AI Superpowers. The roots are well before GPU restriction. Absolute cut throat competition. Imagine Sam Altman throwing a chair out a window in a meeting lol. The message of AI Superpowers is that China will lag the US at first but once things stabilize this will happen because China has a lot more engineers and a lot more data. Anyone who hasn't read AI Superpowers should…

I don't know, I've been hearing the story that China is about to upend the US as the leading global superpower ever since I was a kid. There's always a new vogue and novel twist put on the rationale and how it's gonna happen, but so far it's like fusion, always a few years away.

If you want to look at an objective numeric metric for this, why not foreign military bases? US has 128+, China had ~2. To project global military power China will need similar order of magnitude presence. I use that number as a check against sometimes breathless and sensational journalism about the topic.

It’s harder for me to come up with a simpler metric for “Belt and Road” / IMF style control-through-capital.

But, I think it will happen. After visiting China and seeing how much consistent progress both in infrastructure from the government and in daily life from the economy, my impression is US government makes 2 steps forward 1 step back in the same time it takes China to take 100 steps forward.

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#62

Post by paganel »

qwertox wrote: post #36
kjellsbells wrote: post #10

If you tell the world that eggs are awesome while denying other countries access to eggs, they discover ways to use less eggs and eventually realize they don't need eggs at all. Then you are stuck making Dennys breakfasts while the rest of the world is on to fine dining. China has incredibly strong incentives to do the pure research needed to break the current GPU-or-else lock. I hope, for science' sake, we dont end…

It remains to be seen how stable a totalitarian government can be. China has the benefit of having full control over its people and therefore gets to decide what is important and what not, and currently people are ok with handing that control over to the government. But it's also a very fragile state, which can only be retained through full repression.

> It remains to be seen how stable a totalitarian government can be

Much more stable than the government that has Trump, Musk and Vivek calling the shots, that's for sure.

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#63

Post by paganel »

borski wrote: post #48
aaomidi wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

We’ve seen a CEO shot, and the majority of people definitely don’t cheer it on; just a very vocal minority. Moreover, he may yet get the death penalty; I’m not sure I’d call that any more “fragile” than any other shooting.

[flagged]

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#64

Post by huijzer »

aaomidi wrote: post #41
qwertox wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It remains to be seen how stable a totalitarian government can be. China has the benefit of having full control over its people and therefore gets to decide what is important and what not, and currently people are ok with handing that control over to the government. But it's also a very fragile state, which can only be retained through full repression.

[flagged]

I guess it's time to bring back an old joke from Ronald Reagan [1]:

An American and a Russian are arguing about their two countries. The American says look: "In my country, I can walk into the Oval Office, pound the president's desk, and say 'Mr. President, I don't like the way you're running our country!'".

And the Russian says "I can do that." The American says "You can?" The Russian says "Yes, I can walk right into the Kremlin, go to the General Secretary's office, slam my fist on his desk and say "I don't like the way President Reagan is running his country."

[1]: https://youtu.be/9qh-1_tXeuQ

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#65

Post by elashri »

suraci wrote: post #53
aaomidi wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

There's a saying in Chinese liberals community: We cannot help but admire the American system's ability to self-correct. I've seen it twice these years, one was after JoeBiden won election, said the system choose Biden to fix Trump mess, one was after DTrump won, said the system correct the Biden error. So China is, of course, more fragile.

All what I can see from this comment logic is that the US have a cycle of mess that get rotated not a demonstration of self correction mechanisms.

Not to say that I believe that the US (or any other government or country) unable to have self correction ability or mechanisms. I am just pointing that your logic is flawed.

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#66

Post by borski »

paganel wrote: post #63
borski wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We’ve seen a CEO shot, and the majority of people definitely don’t cheer it on; just a very vocal minority. Moreover, he may yet get the death penalty; I’m not sure I’d call that any more “fragile” than any other shooting.

[flagged]

That is simply not true. Moreover, this forum is not “targeted towards the well-off.”

Out in the real world, Luigi is a criminal who shot a man in cold blood and sparked a conversation. That’s about it.

Hardly a hero. And the majority of the populace does not agree with you.

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#67

Post by solaarphunk »

Etheryte wrote: post #22
wodderam wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kai-Fu Lee describes the culture so well in AI Superpowers. The roots are well before GPU restriction. Absolute cut throat competition. Imagine Sam Altman throwing a chair out a window in a meeting lol. The message of AI Superpowers is that China will lag the US at first but once things stabilize this will happen because China has a lot more engineers and a lot more data. Anyone who hasn't read AI Superpowers should…

I don't know, I've been hearing the story that China is about to upend the US as the leading global superpower ever since I was a kid. There's always a new vogue and novel twist put on the rationale and how it's gonna happen, but so far it's like fusion, always a few years away.

Economic superpower perhaps - just take a look at their relative GDP over time.

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#68

Post by hollerith »

tossandthrow wrote: post #28
Etheryte wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know, I've been hearing the story that China is about to upend the US as the leading global superpower ever since I was a kid. There's always a new vogue and novel twist put on the rationale and how it's gonna happen, but so far it's like fusion, always a few years away.

What makes you think it has not happened? There has not been an event to establish who the current super power is in new time.

The professional military leaders in China, Japan, SK, Taiwan, Singapore and Philippines acts as if the US is the current superpower.

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#69

Post by chvid »

qwertox wrote: post #36
kjellsbells wrote: post #10

If you tell the world that eggs are awesome while denying other countries access to eggs, they discover ways to use less eggs and eventually realize they don't need eggs at all. Then you are stuck making Dennys breakfasts while the rest of the world is on to fine dining. China has incredibly strong incentives to do the pure research needed to break the current GPU-or-else lock. I hope, for science' sake, we dont end…

It remains to be seen how stable a totalitarian government can be. China has the benefit of having full control over its people and therefore gets to decide what is important and what not, and currently people are ok with handing that control over to the government. But it's also a very fragile state, which can only be retained through full repression.

It is probably more stable now than at any time since the communist takeover.

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#70

Post by gr8joos »

borski wrote: post #66
paganel wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

That is simply not true. Moreover, this forum is not “targeted towards the well-off.” Out in the real world, Luigi is a criminal who shot a man in cold blood and sparked a conversation. That’s about it. Hardly a hero. And the majority of the populace does not agree with you.

[dead]
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