421–430 of 620 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The politics of Ukraine war is extremely complicated. They aren't actually. And none of that history relates to the current war. Which is all about Russia's internal politics and ideology. And not about the after-effects of post-WW2 territorial transfers at all. Those transfers in turn were in turn the work of the Allied powers, not Ukraine.
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In some way I feel things have stagnated. Apart from rapid progress on AI. We will continue to see development and progress on hardware. N2 finally from TSMC but not on Apple SoC yet. Blackwell GPU, continue price improvement in GPU competition due to Intel ARC. Etc Most of these are obvious and continue from current trend.
I used to post these trend and roadmap on HN. Now they no longer seems important or matter. iOS and Android have somewhat converged into very similar for the past 3-4 years, that I wasn't expected.
May be Trump winning election along with the pendulum swing back in such massive way wasn't expected as well.
May be this is a sign of depression but In some sense I feel everything is very boring. My most unpresent feeling is that A lot of things outside tech have declined in quality. And we are not improving on it.
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Edit: May be I will use this space to rant about things.
Video Codec - No x266. No VVC Encoder. No Progress on AV2. Stagnated H.267 research. The most popular codec is still AVC finalised in 2003, and AVC High Profile in 2005. So we are 20 years already and still using it.
AAC-LC is finally patent free. But the world no longer cares about Audio Codec. AAC-LC was the first version of AAC that came just after MP3 and we are on 27 years already.
JPEG-XL Not getting anywhere. Despite clearly being the better option for BBP 1.0+. JPEG is still most widely use, and JPEG was finalised in 1992 so we are 32 years in already.
Apple milking on hardware. iOS isn't getting any better. Although latest version of macOS finally have some useful addition.
Internet getting smaller. We can no longer search for things we once saw with Google. Google hasn't been great at most things since their IPO. But it does seems that people are getting excited with their latest AI development.
Amazon milking its AWS. No significant competition from HyperScaler. And no middle ground with Dedicated Sever and Cloud Offering.
Minimal Hardware progress on NAND and HDD. Especially in terms of Cost / GB. HAMR is late by at least 5 - 7 years depending on how you count it.
Retail are now going to Tech without understand anything about it. From QR Code Menu to ordering system inside restaurant with minimal Mobile Network reception. Adding WiFi but with old equipment, capacity constrain before loading anything is very very bad UX.
MNOs moving much slower into 5G telecom equipment upgrading. Basically milking 5G and 4G customer for as long as possible. Instead of trying to make its services better.
USB-C is still a pile of mess.
No Consumer NAS backup function with S3 Glacier Deep Archive.
Streaming is a pile of mess. Netflix gone down hill. Selection of Movies have completely disappeared. I have no idea how Youtube Music is still...... oh well after all it is google I guess I shouldn't expect anything.
Everything is subscription. No BluRay successor in the pipeline. Software continue to be bloated.
Mobile Gaming is just a repeat of the same thing. Literally the same engine with different IPs. And loot box gambling. I have finally deleted all games on my iPhone.
Even Desktop Gaming aren't better. There are finally enough people complaining about Unreal Engine, while simplify game development ultimately make most games looked the same. Along with low frame rate. One could argue this is development studio problem and nothing to do with Unreal, I think there are finally some voices concern about how EPIC encourages it.
Modern AAA Games are also so concerned about Graphics and other crap but completely forgotten about Game Play and Storyline.
On Gaming. I am waiting for Switch 2. But then it is not only delayed. But in terms of hardware released and used in Nintendo Console, Switch 2 will likely be the worst of all in its history using tech that will be 5-7 years old by the time it releases. I know it is not all about hardware but it could have been a generation better and we wouldn't repeat what happen with Zelda lag in some scenes.
Outside Tech, Shrinkflation is happening everything in the food and drinks industry. They are finally reaching another 10 - 15 years cycle where they are looking to cut corners. Both in ingredients and size.
Food quality across the board is decreasing. Mostly because of inflation.
Cheap Chinese Electric cars are everywhere. May be people like them. But they are of very low quality. A little sad German didn't react. But again this is to be expected. And why everything is boring.
Wireless Earphone industry is happy with their margin. May be I am the only person who want battery swap on these thing instead of thinking them as disposable gadget every 2 years. I was hoping someone outside Apple would do it since I first bought AirPod Gen 1. But no. nearly 10 years later we are still throwing them away.
Housing is still expensive. We still dont have ways to built high rise high quality neatly furnished building with substantially less time.
So much about Apple Pay replacing the wallet and we just passed 10 years anniversary. NFC hasn't improved.
I guess after typing a lot of these out I realised and can summarised it as, everyone is busy milking their product and services they all forgot about the content. That is what annoys me the most. Things aren't getting better.
We progressively advance towards Cyberpunk: - governments around the world proceed with bowing to megacorps/cults/mobs; - entire jobs disappear to AI [1], people are told that they "just need to" learn a new job, at the age of 50+; - money is further diverted from fundamental research and towards AI, because governments and private institutions are convinced that AI will magically solve the world's problems; - AGI re…
I'm not sure when, but I've been "long Intel" for a long time.
Global population will reduce by 20+% due to H5N1 pandemic. Many survivors will go Vegan. Climate change will continue accelerating.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> with significant benefit to kids Straight kids from stable homes, perhaps. For LGBT kids, or kids in abusive homes, it's the end of a significant lifeline.
It's interesting yet saddening to play out the consequences along the path you've outlined. LGBT kids, by definition a 2-4% minority, are unlikely to find other people like themselves. They remain closeted for longer, trying and failing to conform. Their struggle will be unfortunate, but also not measurable . What will be measurable is the % of youth who identify as LGBT, which will be lower because more of them woul…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Nah, has to be shooting. Guns are politically protected and the mass shooting is a traditional American ritual. They've not even discovered the primitive technology of the car bomb.
So you're saying... gun drone?!
- Companies continue to integrate AI into everything including stuff that does not need it like toasters in line with every corporate trends thus far - Robo waifus become more available with social movements congregating around the phenomenon - POW crypto breaks as quantum computers are found to have been able to manipulate massive numbers of accounts and money flow throwing markets into turmoil - Reasoning LLMs become more standard at corporates as part of the audit trail necessary as per new AI regulations - 128GB becomes the new GPU gmr/LLM market segment target - further polarization and even further isolation in given groups perception of reality ala 'belief circles' - Flynn effect is finally shown as reversed, because people utilize their LLM more and not use their mental muscles as much - Drones are banned for personal use past a certain size - Drones for commercial use are more heavily regulated - First legal case of robot trouble as owner uses LLM to intruct their robo-companion to attack a human bypassing built-in guardrails using novel prompt starting with 'imagine' ( IP owners of John Lennon sue robotics manufacturer and major LLM provider ) - Exciting developments in exoskeletons allowing for brain control without implants - New developments in batteries rendering old ( previously seemingly worthless ) materials suddenly in demand - Politics and financial markets in turmoil as a result of geopolitical tensions and erosion of public trust in US among its populace
- (90%) US accelerated inflation - (75%) US marked increase in military-industrial complex spending, perhaps $800B/y - (70%) US hollows-out functional regulators necessary for safety, growth, and industry - (65%) US recession spring-summer 2025 - (50%) US major cyberattack crippling infrastructure - (45%) US austerity cuts to Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security
- The overwhelming amount of excess solar generation during the day will propel grid storage into getting a lot of investment. Its capacity will still be mostly a rounding error in 2025.
- The overwhelming amount of excess solar generation during the day will propel discussions about carbon capture and credits. Those won't go anywhere in 2025.
- Meanwhile, the climate won't become much worse in 2025 compared to 2024. What is still pretty bad, but there will certainly be useless heated discussions about it.
- LLMs will reach peak disillusionment. It's not clear if large LLM providers will even keep providing them. But at the same time there will appear a few people here and there using them for stuff they are good at. Those people won't get much attention.
- Linux won't reach 2% of the PCs. But it will get close.
- The US won't jump into a recession as soon as Trump becomes the president. Not much will change in 2025 alone.
- The EU economy will be a bit better than 2024.
- The China economy will be a bit worse than 2024. But there will be no way to verify this.
- Here in South America most countries will be a bit better than 2024. But Brazil will be worse.
Let's see... what other subjects I can ask my crystal ball about?