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Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?
411–420 of 620 posts
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?
#412Earlier quoted context omitted.
The politics of Ukraine war is extremely complicate. After WW2 Ukraine got territories from Hungary (and they are still very mad because of this), Slovakia, Poland and Romania. Then Ukraine had very aggressive policies against the people from these territories and they mostly failed, these minorities speak Russian as the second language, not Ukrainian. This is not something that it is easily forgotten, people in the…
The politics of Ukraine war is extremely complicated. They aren't actually. And none of that history relates to the current war. Which is all about Russia's internal politics and ideology. And not about the after-effects of post-WW2 territorial transfers at all. Those transfers in turn were in turn the work of the Allied powers, not Ukraine.
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Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?
#413Earlier quoted context omitted.
In Brazil we have a famous saying, not related to wars but football, "já combinou com os Russos?" or in literal translation, "Did you already check with the Russians?".
What is the meaning of this term? I am not native english speaker
It means that this is a decision Ukraine can't make all by themselves. It depends on what will happen to them as much as it depends on what they will decide.
It also doesn't fit very well, because it's more intended to be used about cartoonish plans that expect other people to behave exactly as the plan predicts. I dunno why the GP got to it.
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?
#414-USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. -Expanded land use restrictions and federal tariffs against solar and wind, resulting from pressure from fossil fuel lobbyists and the new head of the department of energy. -Another CEO is shot. -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well u…
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Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?
#415Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why not? Because crypto is somehow easier to buy/liquidate than gold?
Gold will always retain value. Stocks and crypto can fall to 0. It is the only asset that has retained high value for thousands of years. When the future in uncertain (like start of a war/pandemic), gold is a safe heaven. Stocks and crypto get obliterated in panics.
> Gold will always retain value.
After >40 years, gold has only just gotten back to its 1980s inflation-adjusted price:
* https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-...
Papers have been written on how it does not hedge inflation:
* https://www.nber.org/papers/w18706
* https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3667789
See also Roy Jastram's The Golden Constant: The English and American Experience 1560 to 1976:
> Andre Sharon, head of the international research department at Drexel Burnham, Inc., notes, “the value of gold essentially derives from its capacity to preserve real capital and purchasing power.”† I select this particular quotation because of the prestige of the organization and the position of the spokesman, but statements in this vein can be found in great numbers. They can be traced back for generations and in many countries. How can this proposition so contrary to statistical fact become so widely believed and quoted? Possibly because gold has preserved capital in cataclysmic cases it is easy to infer that it can be trusted to do the same in less severe circumstances. To extrapolate from gold’s protection in singular catastrophes to its use as a strategy against cyclical infation is an example of faulty inductive reasoning.
* http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/RoyJastram...
So if the barbarians are (close to literally) coming across the fields, gold can be useful to hide or take with you as you head for the hills, but for most economic situations it is not useful.
> Stocks and crypto can fall to 0.
In which case, you better be a farmer with lots of ammo so you can feed yourself and protect what's yours. Of course the Mad Max chaos is a popular trope, but historical events show that people tend to be altruistic and pull together during disasters:
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?
#416Earlier quoted context omitted.
This 100%. The monstrous debt storm just over the horizon that most people can't see (or refuse to acknowledge) will hit and will hit hard. The Fed won't be able to restrain or lessen it with policies and blunt instruments at their disposal. Over the last 4 months I've moved most of my investments to gold, trading cards, BTC, wine, land and rare earth.
>Over the last 4 months I've moved most of my investments to gold, trading cards, BTC, wine, land and rare earth. And you believe that in an economic crisis, people are going to want to buy these things?
> And you believe that in an economic crisis, people are going to want to buy these things?
Gold is obviously more common in some cultures, and could be used for trade if paper money swings wildly. For example, a kilo of gold (32.15 troy ounces/$86k) is not an uncommon incentive gift from real estate developers in China when purchasing properties, to offset variations in costs and pricing. However, in the US, my observations have been the gold buyers are looking for an easy buck.
China is very different. People in China are buying "beans" of gold for $87. Chinese consumers have fewer investment options that are secure, and real estate investments are less favorable now.
"...there is a growing sentiment that the gold market is governed no longer by economic factors but by the whims of Chinese buyers and investors. “China is unquestionably driving the price of gold,” said Ross Norman, chief executive of MetalsDaily.com, a precious-metals information platform based in London. “The flow of gold to China has gone from solid to an absolute torrent.”"
Another interesting quote:
"When China increased its gold holdings in the past, it bought domestically using renminbi, said Guan Tao, global chief economist at BOC International in Beijing. But this time, he said, the bank is using foreign currencies to buy gold — effectively reducing its exposure to the U.S. dollar and other currencies."
China is one of the largest foreign holders of US treasuries. It may be trying to gradually dump them while preserving the value of the bonds.
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?
#417-Late 2025 some TSMC 2 nanometer chips, maybe for Apple. Intel, Samsung, and perhaps Rapidus will have 20% yields.
-Solid state battery doesn't yet appear in phones.
-MicroLED in some high-end glasses. At least one company outside China, probably Samsung, will demonstrate a tri-fold OLED screen.
-Phase 2 experiments for a successor to Ozempic.
-Cobenfy will increase in voluntary popularity because it's on the muscarinic receptor.
-Trump will fail to regulate grocery monopolies so the use of PiGrow will increase https://github.com/Pragmatismo/Pigrow
-Tesla's collaborative robot is delayed while the Chinese competitor is released.
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?
#418Earlier quoted context omitted.
Even as a native English speaker, I only understand the literal meaning, not how it (or the original) would apply here.
This is an expression from the cold war, and roughly means "have you reached an agreement with your foe?" in a context that the foe is involved in the "solution" you're proposing. Something like that.
it’s more like imaginary scenarios still need to face field reality
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?
#419Earlier quoted context omitted.
Gold will always retain value. Stocks and crypto can fall to 0. It is the only asset that has retained high value for thousands of years. When the future in uncertain (like start of a war/pandemic), gold is a safe heaven. Stocks and crypto get obliterated in panics.
> Gold will always retain value. After >40 years, gold has only just gotten back to its 1980s inflation-adjusted price: * https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-... Papers have been written on how it does not hedge inflation: * https://www.nber.org/papers/w18706 * https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3667789 See also Roy Jastram's The Golden Constant: The English and American Exper…
> After >40 years, gold has only just gotten back to its 1980s inflation-adjusted price
If you look at the absolute peak of its price for the last 100 years, it took 40 years to get back to it. Yeah, so? Absolute peaks are like that.
If you don't cherry-pick the year, the gold price right now is looking good compared to the past. (Though an honest reading of that chart would lead one to suspect that we might be near another peak right now...)
Gold will always retain some value. It may not retain 100% of its current value (based on that chart, you could lose 80%). But it still might do better than, say, the Zimbabwe dollar, the Continental, or even the ruble over the past decade.
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?
#420Earlier quoted context omitted.
The politics of Ukraine war is extremely complicated. They aren't actually. And none of that history relates to the current war. Which is all about Russia's internal politics and ideology. And not about the after-effects of post-WW2 territorial transfers at all. Those transfers in turn were in turn the work of the Allied powers, not Ukraine.
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How is what aguaviva said in the GP propaganda? You picked an odd comment to make that criticism.