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Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

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Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#61
post #6

Google will announce new products (will call them initiatives) and will not launch them to the general public. ChatGPT Search will get significant (high 1 digit) share of the search market.

Google will rename their AI product at least 3 times, Google will also launch and shut down at least 5 messaging services.

Google AI will be better and more popular than the rest before they shut it down.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#62

Forget about 2025. I predict that, despite being a highly valued member of my organization and despite my company making money hand over fist, I will not get a holiday bonus this year.

"Best year ever!" "Sorry, we can't do raises this year."

Who is getting all the money?

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#64
It's weird that despite the AI improvements and actual benefits to developers, the current workflow like copilot is still implemented as a hit or miss. It should be the time already for the more limited but more precise AI workflow for developers in 2025.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#65
God, this thread is bleak. Not undeservedly, but...woof.

Nobody's mentioned antibiotic resistant bacteria much that I saw, so that'll probably keep being more and more of an issue.

Everyone predicted a second Great Depression during Covid that lined up with 1929... Well, Trump and his friends might drive us toward that in 2029, or earlier.

AI peaks and we can't eke out much more real benefit from it, but there's too much investment in it for businesses to admit it, so the grifters spin into high gear.

Elon Musk and the other billionaires continues to get richer.

The poor continue to get poorer.

Trump pulls the US out of every socially-good but vaguely anti-business agreement.

Russia finally pulls out of Ukraine but keeps the bits it "liberated".

China declares itself to be the biggest and most stable global superpower as America and Russia have spun off the deep end.

I have to replace my bike tires.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#66

There are even more restrictions aimed at stopping kids using social media. Restrictions on phone use in schools, who can sign up for social media, etc.. Additionally, that it'll eventually prove to be a wild success, with significant benefit to kids. On the darker side, the same technologies and restrictions will be applied in various ways to adults (similar to the porn verification laws), which will have significan…

I'm still not sure how they plan to enforce this. Even now, I see an age verification popup on both illicit sites and even sites I feel are innocuous. But I can just click that I'm old enough to move on.

If the social media companies are only trying to shift blame, this makes sense. They're not liable if the customer lies.

But if that loophole is closed, the only way to enforce age approved sites would be a global identity system that is somehow inextricably linked to your real-life persona. Everything you do online is linked to who you are. And that's VERY dystopian and doesn't (yet) exist to my knowledge.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#67
1) Companies will develop many specialized LLMs linked via a router-like app that determines the best LLM to perform your request. This will yield better results without requiring an AGI. It might even be good enough to replace a specialized information tech job.

2) The cost of a line of code will continue to drop. A Moore's like law is coming/here for code.

3) Trade jobs will start to become what code jobs were in the 00's -- very well paid.

Fair warning, coders think about learning a trade like plumbing, electrician, so on...

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