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Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

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11–20 of 620 posts

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#11
There are even more restrictions aimed at stopping kids using social media. Restrictions on phone use in schools, who can sign up for social media, etc..

Additionally, that it'll eventually prove to be a wild success, with significant benefit to kids.

On the darker side, the same technologies and restrictions will be applied in various ways to adults (similar to the porn verification laws), which will have significantly more negative effects.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#12
#1 Something has to happen of the drones that are over various US military sites. People seem to want to bury their head in the sand, not acknowledging China owns substantial "farmland" in the US, especially near military sites, that could in theory be home to any number of drone bases. If China is preparing for war, it could risk a global catastrophe.

#2 The Russia-Ukraine war is likely to come to a peaceful end. Putin seems to have mostly lost his appetite for war, and we know that Trump will not want to fund Ukraine any more. Ukraine will have to accept the loss of some conquered territory.

#3 With regard to non-CoT LLMs, gpt-4o becomes worse on all relevant benchmarks compared to the leading open source models. Currently, as I understand, it still wins on some benchmarks.

#4 Tiktok, if not all social media, gets banned for those under 18 on the grounds of foreign influence, although ID requirements get struck down, and kids can misrepresent their age.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#13
post #7

Dopamine management medication will lead to a renaissance of human ingenuity and scientific discoveries and a big crash for social media and gambling sites (and in fact most online activities) but everyone will start becoming more robotic and even less social. Think GLP-1 inhibitors except for thinking more deeply and for longer periods. If not 2025 very soon.

Do GLP-1 already do this, to some extent?

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#14
post #7

Dopamine management medication will lead to a renaissance of human ingenuity and scientific discoveries and a big crash for social media and gambling sites (and in fact most online activities) but everyone will start becoming more robotic and even less social. Think GLP-1 inhibitors except for thinking more deeply and for longer periods. If not 2025 very soon.

Antipsychotic medicines already are dopamine antagonists, but they lead to substantial weight gain, and they hurt motivation.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#16

I will start off with an uncommon one: Gambling addiction in kids is through the roof, sports betting, crypto betting, csgo skin betting. These are being openly advertised and we will start seeing the first major push towards stopping some of them. Some of the owners of the most uncommon Counterstrike skin gambling sites are making about $50 million a month.

A search for CSGO skin betting brings up a ton of sites, but I still have no idea what it is. Can you explain it? I don't really understand what is being bet on there. (Also, I'm slightly scared of the answer)

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#17
post #6

Google will announce new products (will call them initiatives) and will not launch them to the general public. ChatGPT Search will get significant (high 1 digit) share of the search market.

Perplexity, Phind, Grok, etc. are surprisingly good already as search engines.

Perplexity is better than Google for most of my common use-cases.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#18
post #7

Dopamine management medication will lead to a renaissance of human ingenuity and scientific discoveries and a big crash for social media and gambling sites (and in fact most online activities) but everyone will start becoming more robotic and even less social. Think GLP-1 inhibitors except for thinking more deeply and for longer periods. If not 2025 very soon.

These already exist, they’re called CNS stimulants.

Sounds like they're describing the opposite of CNS stimulants though. People take meth and coke and go on se, gambling binges. Something that moderates and manages dopamine in a way that breaks the hold gambling and social media has on people's brains would be very different. Something that dulls the retative mini-bursts of dopamine hits you get with every click and scroll.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#19
Trump and cronies will absolutely wreck market stability. There will be actual shortages of basic products. But they will not be acknowledged as mistakes since the companies will be able to price gouge and maintain profits.

There will be at more attempts at more CEO and billionaire murders. They will use propaganda and media manipulation to muddle the grassroots approval of similar action, and change the narrative around Luigi.

Everything will get more expensive. More layoffs. Most people will have to work much harder for much less, but it'll be okay because number will go up.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#20
post #6

Google will announce new products (will call them initiatives) and will not launch them to the general public. ChatGPT Search will get significant (high 1 digit) share of the search market.

Google will rename their AI product at least 3 times, Google will also launch and shut down at least 5 messaging services.
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