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Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

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Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#371

Post by carlosjobim »

huijzer wrote: post #241
standeven wrote: post #154

-USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. -Expanded land use restrictions and federal tariffs against solar and wind, resulting from pressure from fossil fuel lobbyists and the new head of the department of energy. -Another CEO is shot. -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well u…

> USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. Some GDP numbers to put things in perspective (source: tradingeconomics.com). Ukraine: $0.2T Russia: $2T United States: $27T European Union: $18T So even if you drop the US, only the EU should be sufficient. Russia More specifically, I saw estimates that Rus…

GDP is imaginary. It is not how much money you have or how much wealth you have. It's not how much weapons or how much fuel or steel you have. It is only a measurement of how fast imaginary money is traded between people within an economic zone. And Europe has a lot of such economic "activity" with very little real world results.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#372

Post by BaudouinVH »

- Elections will be unexpectedly won by candidate running anti-immigration, Russia-friendly candidates

- 2025 will be the hottest year on record

- BlueSky will reach 100 million users

- There will be at least one government fall in France

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#373

Post by forinti »

drcwpl wrote: post #354

IQ will continue to decline driven by over-reliance on LLM output and the majority watching video shorts. Nevertheless, long form podcasts will continue to grow, although still watched by less than 1% of the population

I think we'll probably see many issues provoked by buggy and faulty code made by LLMs.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#374

Post by onra87 »

rapsey wrote: post #306
Yoric wrote: post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not? Because crypto is somehow easier to buy/liquidate than gold?

Gold will always retain value. Stocks and crypto can fall to 0. It is the only asset that has retained high value for thousands of years. When the future in uncertain (like start of a war/pandemic), gold is a safe heaven. Stocks and crypto get obliterated in panics.

Isn't the future uncertain since the creation of Bitcoin? I'd like to be obliterated like I've been with BTC going through multiple global crisis :)

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#375

Post by FergusArgyll »

Ukraine War ends

Gaza War ends

Still no Super Bowl for the Ravens

Gallup general mood[0] above 37%

Russel outperforms NASDAQ

No Quantum news

Inflation does not rise meaningfully (in US)

Relative stability in Syria

EU economy slows

Some North Korea news [1]

Year of the Linux Desktop [2]

[0] https://news.gallup.com/poll/1669/general-mood-country.aspx [1] Nuke test and/or negotiations [2] Joke

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#376

Post by drcwpl »

criddell wrote: post #366
drcwpl wrote: post #354

IQ will continue to decline driven by over-reliance on LLM output and the majority watching video shorts. Nevertheless, long form podcasts will continue to grow, although still watched by less than 1% of the population

It’s interesting to me that you talk about watching podcasts. To me, they are still mostly a feed of audio files with some outlier video podcasts gathering big audiences. Am I out of date on that? Is video the primary format for podcasts now? > 1% of the population Human population. I bet they are used for training a significant number of big AIs.

You are right, the 'watch' ones are outlier podcasts, eg Lex Fridman, Rogan, Dwarkesh Patel, Tyler Cowen, The Diary of a CEO, Machine Learning Street Talk, Hoover Institute, and so on, but it is building momentum.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#377

Post by onra87 »

Yoric wrote: post #274
standeven wrote: post #154

-USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. -Expanded land use restrictions and federal tariffs against solar and wind, resulting from pressure from fossil fuel lobbyists and the new head of the department of energy. -Another CEO is shot. -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well u…

> -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well under $100k. Eh, I was expecting the opposite, with people flocking it to bitcoin (or some other crypto) as a backup strategy in case of political/ecological instability. What makes you think that there will be a major correction?

I even think that with the polarization of the world and the new global crisis coming, people might realise the ever growing need of decentralization, and we might see the real birth of web3 technologies. (Not speaking about meme coins =))

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#378

Post by qwertox »

latexr wrote: post #355
qwertox wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If 20% of your economy is busy throwing ordnance at someone else sounds pretty unsustainable, then you are probably right. The bigger harm Russia is putting onto itself is its inability to take part in the AI race. They've left the battle over to the US and China, while the EU at least isn't idling. If they wouldn't have started the war and have at least pretended to be good friends, they could have used their vast…

We’re discussing a literal war, with all the death and destruction that entails, and your claim is “the bigger harm” is not wasting more money on a power hungry subpar parrot that is accelerating the dissemination of disinformation and making it harder to fight climate change with its energy consumption. We’re all doomed. Anyone who believes AI will kill us is delusional, humans are greedy and stupid enough that we’l…

Bigger harm than "20% of your economy is busy throwing ordnance at someone else". That comment was focusing on the economy, not on the deaths.

Regarding AI, it could lead to solutions to the problems we've been creating through the industrialization.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#379

Post by andy_ppp »

Detrytus wrote: post #370
AdrianB1 wrote: post #356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The politics of Ukraine war is extremely complicate. After WW2 Ukraine got territories from Hungary (and they are still very mad because of this), Slovakia, Poland and Romania. Then Ukraine had very aggressive policies against the people from these territories and they mostly failed, these minorities speak Russian as the second language, not Ukrainian. This is not something that it is easily forgotten, people in the…

> Then Ukraine had very aggressive policies against the people from these territories. Let's call it for what it really was: Ukrainians commited genocide against Poles. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massacres_of_Poles_in_Volhynia...

Even so I assume the vast majority of Polish people would prefer a border with Ukraine rather than a larger one with Russia...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katyn_massacre

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_repressions_of_Polish_c...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_transfer_in_the_Sov...

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#380

Post by dominicrose »

kyriakos wrote: post #188
bobro wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Crazy how wrong people were in the top 2024 comments.

Indeed someone predicted vision pro will be wildly popular.

Yes. People are not stupid. It's one thing to have a phone in your purse. It's another to have something on your head and eyes, like how is anyone going to agree to that? Sure if it was very cheap you'd find some interested folks.
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