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Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

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Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#351

Post by ben_w »

Starship: first attempt at the Moon, I'd guess 80%. No Mars windows.

--

AI: wildly unpredictable at every stage and in every regard. Cheaper, better, faster, more drama, that's all easy to predict, but how much of each and which specific benchmarks/legal issues are not.

Only AI capability predictions I will make are:

• Probably still no Tesla level 5 FSD, but Waymo will continue rolling out slowly and cautiously.

• Androids will still be split into cheap toys and expensive industrial equipment, not fully general domestic servants

--

Power:

• Wind power increases 7-21%

• PV increases 20-26%

• Fusion has some press releases, doesn't demonstrate much useful

• Battery production increases by about 33% while getting about 14% cheaper per unit

--

BigTech companies:

• At least one FAANG gets split up properly, possibly multiple. They've been annoying too many governments for too long.

• X gets more drama, but details are unpredictable. Could equally be "bankrupt", "mandatory for US federal government", "banned in EU, UK, Australia", "sold to Trump personally".

--

Consumer tech:

• Computers get about 31% more power efficient

• 50%: Some specific Smart Dust product revealed to public, people announce expensive paint contianing x motes of smart dust per litre.

• VR/AR: 25% dropped from news cycle like 3D TV, 50% continues like games consoles, 25% something that currently seems sci-fi

--

Geopolitics:

• Musk finds $2T to cut (66%), Congress pretends to take it seriously (80%), but nobody wants the cuts in their district (99.9%) so it stalls unless and until Musk can find a way to effectively buy out the downsides (80% chance Musk finds a way at all, but only 25% chance the method he finds is actually legal).

• US weapons stop being sent to Ukraine: (completely banned even for sale: 5%; they can be sold but no more are given "for free": 60-70%; repeat of previous Trump request for dirt on domestic opponents in exchange for aid: 30-40%)

• EU aid stops going to Ukraine: 1% while they remain independent, 99% if they get conquered.

• Ukraine develops nuclear deterrent: 30-50% if aid stops or is threatened, otherwise 5-10%

• Putin dies: assassinated, ~2%; all other causes, ~4%

• Trump dies: assassinated, 1-2.25%; all other causes, 5-6%

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#352

Post by senorrib »

ben_w wrote: post #305
dsab wrote: post #245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is the meaning of this term? I am not native english speaker

Even as a native English speaker, I only understand the literal meaning, not how it (or the original) would apply here.

This is an expression from the cold war, and roughly means "have you reached an agreement with your foe?" in a context that the foe is involved in the "solution" you're proposing. Something like that.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#353

Post by ukuina »

A hierarchy of LLMs, but they communicate via shared latent space instead of tokens. This will allow for really tiny models on the edge that work best at clarifying intent (and not much else; they have no world knowledge), but seamless and rapid offloading to the cloud with all context still preserved when the intent is thoroughly understood.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#354

Post by drcwpl »

IQ will continue to decline driven by over-reliance on LLM output and the majority watching video shorts.

Nevertheless, long form podcasts will continue to grow, although still watched by less than 1% of the population

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#355

Post by latexr »

qwertox wrote: post #321
huijzer wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. Some GDP numbers to put things in perspective (source: tradingeconomics.com). Ukraine: $0.2T Russia: $2T United States: $27T European Union: $18T So even if you drop the US, only the EU should be sufficient. Russia More specifically, I saw estimates that Rus…

> If 20% of your economy is busy throwing ordnance at someone else sounds pretty unsustainable, then you are probably right. The bigger harm Russia is putting onto itself is its inability to take part in the AI race. They've left the battle over to the US and China, while the EU at least isn't idling. If they wouldn't have started the war and have at least pretended to be good friends, they could have used their vast…

We’re discussing a literal war, with all the death and destruction that entails, and your claim is “the bigger harm” is not wasting more money on a power hungry subpar parrot that is accelerating the dissemination of disinformation and making it harder to fight climate change with its energy consumption.

We’re all doomed. Anyone who believes AI will kill us is delusional, humans are greedy and stupid enough that we’ll do it ourselves.

https://www.newyorker.com/cartoon/a16995

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#356

Post by AdrianB1 »

pjc50 wrote: post #313
cm2187 wrote: post #249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's true but apart from Poland, all large EU countries have anaemic weapon production and diverted all their military spending into social programs decades ago, which they cannot reverse. They are at their budget deficit limits and are all in territory where if they increase tax rates, tax proceeds go down (along with growth and employment). So the reality is that I don't think there is any chance the EU is a subs…

The question becomes one of politics: how much does each EU member care? I'm reminded about the old joke about the difference between ham and eggs being that the chicken is involved but the pig is committed. Poland, Romania, and the Baltic states are "committed" in that they regard the risk of a Russian invasion as real, and have seen occasional incursions by Russian flights and even missiles. If it comes to a fight…

The politics of Ukraine war is extremely complicate. After WW2 Ukraine got territories from Hungary (and they are still very mad because of this), Slovakia, Poland and Romania. Then Ukraine had very aggressive policies against the people from these territories and they mostly failed, these minorities speak Russian as the second language, not Ukrainian. This is not something that it is easily forgotten, people in the countries listed above still have family in Ukraine and have first hand experience of the situation.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#357

Post by augusto-moura »

fph wrote: post #348
dom96 wrote: post #343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well under $100k. Wild prediction from me: Trump creates a US coin, everyone realises that a large government can easily create an alt coin, with enough people buying it and selling Bitcoin because it has the US government's support. Bitcoin then loses significant value and possibly becomes worthless eventually. The value of Bitcoin is only there because it…

Prediction: Musk will call it x-coin.

Traded as a single X letter, to confuse people even more

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#358

Post by mytailorisrich »

mrweasel wrote: post #300
rahmansahinler1 wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

United states mainly provides quality weapons to the Ukraine which EU does not have. EU provides humanitarian aid. Which is also important but without American help Ukraine will lose the war against Russia

I'm optimistic in the sense that I believe that if the EU offered to pay for the weapons, then the Trump government won't mind supplying them. The issue is that it would be difficult for the EU to reach an internal agreement.

> if the EU offered to pay for the weapons

It's a bit like if Mexico offered to pay for the wall at some point... Europe should not be a carpet, it has more than enough weapons manufacturers and any additional funding should be directed to them.

The war in Ukraine has so far been good for the US and bad for Europe so it's bonkers to suggest that Europe should make things even 'worse' for itself.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#360

Post by tremarley »

dom96 wrote: post #343
standeven wrote: post #154

-USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. -Expanded land use restrictions and federal tariffs against solar and wind, resulting from pressure from fossil fuel lobbyists and the new head of the department of energy. -Another CEO is shot. -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well u…

> -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well under $100k. Wild prediction from me: Trump creates a US coin, everyone realises that a large government can easily create an alt coin, with enough people buying it and selling Bitcoin because it has the US government's support. Bitcoin then loses significant value and possibly becomes worthless eventually. The value of Bitcoin is only there because it…

Bitcoin has a proof of work based blockchain.

The length and story of the chain is a unique experiment, unlikely to be replicated ever again in my opinion

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