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Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

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Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#251

Post by viraptor »

paraschopra wrote: post #228
viraptor wrote: post #141

* I was hoping for that this year, but: split of LLMs into databases and reasoning. Think small, capable PHI with pluggable information. Currently we're burning a lot of energy both to learn and process everything at once. The next step will be something closer to RAG, potentially selecting databases to load depending on topic, like a librarian. This will both enable more client-side applications and save lots of mon…

>I was hoping for that this year, but: split of LLMs into databases and reasoning This hasn't worked out because knowing what to query and how to query requires intelligence, and that's contained in weights.

Splitting knowledge out doesn't mean you need to drop weights. Just that it needs to become independent / attachable.

To some extent we've already seen this with MoE and Frankenstein models.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#252

Post by glogla »

huijzer wrote: post #241
standeven wrote: post #154

-USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. -Expanded land use restrictions and federal tariffs against solar and wind, resulting from pressure from fossil fuel lobbyists and the new head of the department of energy. -Another CEO is shot. -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well u…

> USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. Some GDP numbers to put things in perspective (source: tradingeconomics.com). Ukraine: $0.2T Russia: $2T United States: $27T European Union: $18T So even if you drop the US, only the EU should be sufficient. Russia More specifically, I saw estimates that Rus…

[dead]

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#253

Post by locallost »

esperent wrote: post #121
quantisan wrote: post #72

Previous years: 2024: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38777115 (the rest of this list is copied from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38779963 ) 2023: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34125628 2022: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29746236 2021: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25594068 2020: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21802596 2019: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18753859 2018:…

There's a second 2024 thread here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38614465 Reading through the two 2024 threads I'm struck that most predictions a) were completely wrong b) reflected more what people wanted to happen rather than what was likely. Edit: now that I've read through this thread I'll add c) were much more hopeful than this year's predictions.

It reflects the mood, which tells me all I need to know about things like short term stock changes. In reality nobody can predict the future. My predictions have historically also been way off, but what is surprising to me is that people don't reflect on their misses. For the most part I've given up in predicting anything, at best I will look at trends and see if there's something there or not.

But with that said I will now post my predictions for 2025 :-).

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#254

Post by rossdavidh »

- Russian economy flounders, ruble ends the year considerably lower against western currencies than it is now

- Crypto actually ends the year higher, because Russian and Chinese oligarchs use it to try to get their money out of their home countries

- inflation pressures prevent US interest rates from going more than half a point lower; may even start raising again

- AI hype bubble will continue, but OpenAI will still not have a positive cash flow by end of year, and neither will other major AI startups

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#255

Post by jhanschoo »

Program synthesis becomes the trendword in AI, just as RAG was in 2024. AI apps become increasingly versatile and useful, further hiking up the ladder for knowledge work, and in general commodifying many domains; very slowly by end of 2025, but surely.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#256

Post by average_r_user »

huijzer wrote: post #241
standeven wrote: post #154

-USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. -Expanded land use restrictions and federal tariffs against solar and wind, resulting from pressure from fossil fuel lobbyists and the new head of the department of energy. -Another CEO is shot. -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well u…

> USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. Some GDP numbers to put things in perspective (source: tradingeconomics.com). Ukraine: $0.2T Russia: $2T United States: $27T European Union: $18T So even if you drop the US, only the EU should be sufficient. Russia More specifically, I saw estimates that Rus…

I want to share your optimism regarding the EU (countries) continuing the support for Ukraine. Still, if the US drops its support and its moral and (material) persuasion to the EU, I'm not sure that the EU won't pull the plug as well, considering the wavering and indecision shown by several countries regarding the approval of aids.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#257

Post by rahmansahinler1 »

huijzer wrote: post #241
standeven wrote: post #154

-USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. -Expanded land use restrictions and federal tariffs against solar and wind, resulting from pressure from fossil fuel lobbyists and the new head of the department of energy. -Another CEO is shot. -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well u…

> USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. Some GDP numbers to put things in perspective (source: tradingeconomics.com). Ukraine: $0.2T Russia: $2T United States: $27T European Union: $18T So even if you drop the US, only the EU should be sufficient. Russia More specifically, I saw estimates that Rus…

United states mainly provides quality weapons to the Ukraine which EU does not have. EU provides humanitarian aid. Which is also important but without American help Ukraine will lose the war against Russia

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#259

Post by wombatpm »

After a compliant SEC and FTC are installed, Twitter and Truth Social will merge in some weird all stock transaction that allows DJT to recoup 3-4 billion while Elon gets to be listed on the stock exchange again at some absurd valuation.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#260

Post by globular-toast »

CrimsonRain wrote: post #240
globular-toast wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The selective disabling thing works in the lab according to some tolerances. On the road they are a nuisance, simple as that. Eyes are sensitive and those things don't work anywhere near as well as they should.

They work just fine. I can always notice them working for my car and other's cars.

> I can always notice them working for my car and other's cars.

Exactly. Noticing them working is very distracting. There simply shouldn't be the possibility of having such a bright light aimed directly at you from oncoming vehicles ever.

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