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Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

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Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#221

Post by seanmcdirmid »

redundantly wrote: post #220
bruce511 wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with the rest, but not necessarily investments collapsing. It seems to me that the incoming administration will be friendly to business, gutting consumer and environmental protections. Assuming tarrifs happen, there will be price hikes. And if there are general price hikes it's easy (and sometimes necessary) to hike your own prices even if you're not directly affected. This will improve profits (at least in t…

> It seems to me that the incoming administration will be friendly to business Friendly to some businesses. Stocks aren't the only investments people make. Their own small businesses, homes and other property, crypto, etc.

I wonder if trump will actually go through with the tariffs though. If it is as widespread on day one as he keeps bragging about, the stock market would surely crash.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#222

Post by doku »

andy_ppp wrote: post #7

Dopamine management medication will lead to a renaissance of human ingenuity and scientific discoveries and a big crash for social media and gambling sites (and in fact most online activities) but everyone will start becoming more robotic and even less social. Think GLP-1 inhibitors except for thinking more deeply and for longer periods. If not 2025 very soon.

I feel the dogged persuit of a task and obsessive curiosity might be more closely related to addiction than to self control. A good balance of productivity from the self control and the obessive curiosity of human nature might be needed for ascension

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#223

Post by tasuki »

idiot_predictor wrote: post #165

* One or a few of the faangmanga-ish leaders will retire (or forced to by the board) and the new leader will be from within (likely Tim Cook for age reasons but could equally likely be Sundar Pichai for non-age reasons) * LLMs (for non-coding tasks) will likely fizzle out as expensive talking fidget spinners and not the world saviors that the companies behind them envision them to be. AI will go back to being fun and…

> LLMs (for non-coding tasks) will likely fizzle out as expensive talking fidget spinners and not the world saviors that the companies behind them envision them to be.

100% wrong. LLMs are wildly useful in daily life, even the cheaper models.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#224

Post by sky2224 »

The cost of PC components in the US are going to sky rocket higher than we've ever seen with tariffs coming. I really doubt that US fabs will be able to keep up with demand either.

I just put down $2500 on a new PC because of this.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#225

Post by sakopov »

Russia - Ukraine war comes to an end.

Market continues to rally into first quarter then most equities slide and start trading sideways.

Inflation softens as shelter slides.

Recession in second half of the year.

Bitcoin hits $150k at some point next year and then starts lagging with the general market.

US prioritizes LNG development and export.

Google becomes leader in AI.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#226

Post by azurezyq »

standeven wrote: post #154

-USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. -Expanded land use restrictions and federal tariffs against solar and wind, resulting from pressure from fossil fuel lobbyists and the new head of the department of energy. -Another CEO is shot. -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well u…

- At the same time EV continues to grow faster everywhere else than NA.

- US requires more percentage of EV components made domestically, making US the most expensive EV market.

- US made EVs will retreat to NA markets only.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#227

Post by dkrich »

One of the unusual trends of the past several years is that higher education has become less and less respected and people now look to private industry for the R&D that universities were designed to perform for the public good.

I think 2025 Will mark a bottom for that in one way or another- either private industry (the FANGs) suffers a setback or (more likely in my view) research universities start a comeback as a new set of startups begin to launch out of a department (not necessarily CS or hardware). Perhaps in another field like gene therapy.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#228

Post by paraschopra »

viraptor wrote: post #141

* I was hoping for that this year, but: split of LLMs into databases and reasoning. Think small, capable PHI with pluggable information. Currently we're burning a lot of energy both to learn and process everything at once. The next step will be something closer to RAG, potentially selecting databases to load depending on topic, like a librarian. This will both enable more client-side applications and save lots of mon…

>I was hoping for that this year, but: split of LLMs into databases and reasoning

This hasn't worked out because knowing what to query and how to query requires intelligence, and that's contained in weights.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#230

Post by globular-toast »

viraptor wrote: post #145
unsnap_biceps wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly, I think the headlight "bars" like on the Rivian R1T or Cybertruck is going to be the standard going forward. It gives a better driving experience (to the driver, way worse for the other drivers...)

> way worse for the other drivers Light bars selectively disabling some LED segments (as in not blinding other drivers) are already a thing, but... they're not allowed in the US. If the regulation around it comes closer to the EU one, everyone will be better off.

The selective disabling thing works in the lab according to some tolerances. On the road they are a nuisance, simple as that. Eyes are sensitive and those things don't work anywhere near as well as they should.
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