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Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

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Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#161

Post by owenpalmer »

uncomplexity_ wrote: post #132
andy_ppp wrote: post #7

Dopamine management medication will lead to a renaissance of human ingenuity and scientific discoveries and a big crash for social media and gambling sites (and in fact most online activities) but everyone will start becoming more robotic and even less social. Think GLP-1 inhibitors except for thinking more deeply and for longer periods. If not 2025 very soon.

haha this is gonna be an interesting one for sure. it's crazy how us humans yearn for magic pills for the highs and the lows just to get ourselves in a healthy baseline and as bryan johnson's experiments look like, it all comes down to our consistency in eating healthy, exercising regularly, and resting enough - those three alone will net you better health than most people - and it's hard to get into habit of doing t…

+1 for mentioning Bryan Johnson

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#162

Post by throwaway2037 »

Lordarminius wrote: post #159
abetusk wrote: post #108

* Solar energy will account for around 8% (give or take 1%?) of the worlds energy usage * We'll see the worlds first trillionaire * Bitcoin will reach $200k+, and remain largely stable around that price, at the end of 2025 * Generative AI for music will continue to improve substantially. I have a lack of imagination, but maybe something like on demand streaming services, maybe targeted to niche music genres (lo-fi, e…

* Bitcoin is on a trajectory to reach 200k and it will if we get a strong bull season. However the elephant in the room is the House of Cards that is the US financial system. It appears primed to go poof! * Solar and LLM's will bloom.

    > the US financial system. It appears primed to go poof!
Can you explain more, and provide some specific examples? Are you talking about commercial banks, investment banks, or insurance companies? (They make up the bulk of what most people mean when they say "financial system".) Post-2008 GFC, ibanks are stronger than ever because they are much more conservative. With the exception of a couple of run-on-the-banks, commercial banks have been more stable than ever in the last 50 years. Similar for insurance companies.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#164

Post by IAmGraydon »

andrewinardeer wrote: post #87
calenti wrote: post #70

Debt chickens will come home to roost and once the bond interest/return death spiral starts it will be very difficult to break. Interest payments are already #3 in the national budget.

This 100%. The monstrous debt storm just over the horizon that most people can't see (or refuse to acknowledge) will hit and will hit hard. The Fed won't be able to restrain or lessen it with policies and blunt instruments at their disposal. Over the last 4 months I've moved most of my investments to gold, trading cards, BTC, wine, land and rare earth.

>Over the last 4 months I've moved most of my investments to gold, trading cards, BTC, wine, land and rare earth.

And you believe that in an economic crisis, people are going to want to buy these things?

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#165

Post by idiot_predictor »

* One or a few of the faangmanga-ish leaders will retire (or forced to by the board) and the new leader will be from within (likely Tim Cook for age reasons but could equally likely be Sundar Pichai for non-age reasons)

* LLMs (for non-coding tasks) will likely fizzle out as expensive talking fidget spinners and not the world saviors that the companies behind them envision them to be. AI will go back to being fun and exciting again and not the delight of both Wall Street and the ‘shoeshine boy’.

* Cloud egress costs will be heavily scrutinized and competed upon as transferring data no longer becomes a competitive advantage.

* Apple or someone like Apple will take advantage of cratering storage/compute costs by moving things off cloud to a locally owned ‘box’ that pairs with a new dumb-client/thin phone (backups, massive storage, running some compute on this box, sharing/storing ‘family’ stuff, streaming games or movies etc) also accessible via a reverse proxy (vpn) from anywhere.

* A combo of aibo/roomba/ring like device that goes about or rolls around your house and does things for you… kinda real life flubber.

* Selling users’ data goes out of fashion (goog/meta) as new companies use privacy as a competitive advantage to sell ads.

* Finally games actually have AI that doesn’t suck - a new class of AI games that would challenge and delight humans like never before.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#167

Post by abetusk »

uncomplexity_ wrote: post #140
abetusk wrote: post #108

* Solar energy will account for around 8% (give or take 1%?) of the worlds energy usage * We'll see the worlds first trillionaire * Bitcoin will reach $200k+, and remain largely stable around that price, at the end of 2025 * Generative AI for music will continue to improve substantially. I have a lack of imagination, but maybe something like on demand streaming services, maybe targeted to niche music genres (lo-fi, e…

banger. on real life image and video intelligence though i think google will take the lead here as they just have monopoly on dataset here given they have google images and youtube. on proprietary general intelligence ai i think openai and anthropic will keep their lead, while on open source mark zuckerberg will be continuously leveling the playing field so the general population can keep up in terms of availability…

> ... i think google will take the lead here as they just have monopoly on dataset ...

I think there's plenty of data for people to train substantial models, either drawing directly from the public domain or scraping content. The cost of compute and disk space will continue to drop exponentially fueling the ability of small businesses and amateurs.

Compute is still following Moore's law, more or less, when you allow for GPUs. Hard drives are relatively on the same path, with maybe a price halving every 3 years or so.

> ... while on open source mark zuckerberg will be continuously leveling the playing field so the general population can keep up in terms of availability of access and end-result productivity.

Meta's offering is not open source. I agree that all the big players will make substantial moves in this space but I'm much more interested in the niche models that are actually libre/free/open source. I suspect FOSS will eventually eat all the big players lunch but I don't have a good read on it (nor do I know anything about China's OSS models).

> it's gonna be great to see lots of micro communities offering better content than netflix/disney/hbo ...

It sounds like a "Black Mirror" episode but I can't wait (and I don't think it'll be as bad as "Black Mirror").

> i wonder how much of the industry will transition into pure prompting too ...

My read on this is that we're in the "experimental art house" phase of this type of generative AI. So many people create weird things, experimenting with the technology but ultimately having low expectations in terms of what gets produced.

Sometime soon (1-2+ years?) my guess is we'll see finer control with someone, either an actor, director, etc. that can provide dialogue, facial expression and body language with minimal setup, a camera or voice recording, say, that can make or refine avatar/agent performance. I would guess this would be available to specialized visual graphics shops but will eventually bleed out so that amateurs have access. I think we might be seeing this available already.

Eventually, we'll have "make what I want", but I would imagine that's 5-10+ years away.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#168

Post by paul7986 »

bmcahren wrote: post #28
franze wrote: post #6

Google will announce new products (will call them initiatives) and will not launch them to the general public. ChatGPT Search will get significant (high 1 digit) share of the search market.

I'll bandwagon on chat.com getting 10% or higher marketshare. Look back at Google search's 800 number; https://techcrunch.com/2013/05/12/google-kills-sms-search/ (the only article I could find). We're at that stage of chat.com going mainstream. Already chat.com is a better experience for finding local shops and restaurants. ChatGPT voice mode was surgically amazing while driving. I had a personal assistant refining c…

I think Open AI will release a GPT phone and the UX is built around your phone being your personal AI assistant.

When you pick it up it's like you are always on a Facetime call with your AI personal assistant. You can skin your AI personal assistant how they look .. to look like a celebrity to a deceased friend or relative whose always there to help & guide you through your day (get things done for you, your knowlegdebase, knows your life and sees how you are doing via Vision AI.. if you want it can be your friend and show care for you).

If Open AI doesn't do this then another AI company will in 2025. We need a new phone / personal device paradigm. The iPhone and Android are stale and boring in 2024!

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#169

Post by wombatpm »

abetusk wrote: post #108

* Solar energy will account for around 8% (give or take 1%?) of the worlds energy usage * We'll see the worlds first trillionaire * Bitcoin will reach $200k+, and remain largely stable around that price, at the end of 2025 * Generative AI for music will continue to improve substantially. I have a lack of imagination, but maybe something like on demand streaming services, maybe targeted to niche music genres (lo-fi, e…

I think if you count animation we’re probably real close going from comic book series to animated feature.
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