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Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

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Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#131

Post by uncomplexity_ »

WheelsAtLarge wrote: post #67

1) Companies will develop many specialized LLMs linked via a router-like app that determines the best LLM to perform your request. This will yield better results without requiring an AGI. It might even be good enough to replace a specialized information tech job. 2) The cost of a line of code will continue to drop. A Moore's like law is coming/here for code. 3) Trade jobs will start to become what code jobs were in t…

small window for ai workflow and ai agent startups for quick cash and grab as large corporations move slow in this field

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#132

Post by uncomplexity_ »

andy_ppp wrote: post #7

Dopamine management medication will lead to a renaissance of human ingenuity and scientific discoveries and a big crash for social media and gambling sites (and in fact most online activities) but everyone will start becoming more robotic and even less social. Think GLP-1 inhibitors except for thinking more deeply and for longer periods. If not 2025 very soon.

haha this is gonna be an interesting one for sure.

it's crazy how us humans yearn for magic pills for the highs and the lows just to get ourselves in a healthy baseline

and as bryan johnson's experiments look like, it all comes down to our consistency in eating healthy, exercising regularly, and resting enough - those three alone will net you better health than most people - and it's hard to get into habit of doing those since we all got distractions around us.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#133

Post by uncomplexity_ »

subsection1h wrote: post #75
thepuppet33r wrote: post #65

God, this thread is bleak. Not undeservedly, but...woof. Nobody's mentioned antibiotic resistant bacteria much that I saw, so that'll probably keep being more and more of an issue. Everyone predicted a second Great Depression during Covid that lined up with 1929... Well, Trump and his friends might drive us toward that in 2029, or earlier. AI peaks and we can't eke out much more real benefit from it, but there's too…

> God, this thread is bleak. [...] I have to replace my bike tires. Your bike tires have contributed to the microplastic crisis. :-)

and it's now inside our testicles ;)

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#134

Post by bacon_waffle »

esafak wrote: post #100
madphilosopher wrote: post #68

Auto makers will decide that putting 6 headlights on pickup trucks is no longer competitive. Consequently, they will innovate that the world needs pickup trucks with 8 headlights, starting in 2025. FML.

https://theonion.com/fuck-everything-were-doing-five-blades-...

"The 8th blade sends an electronic pulse to the center of the brain, which destroys the part of the brain responsible for hair growth and 4 other nonessential functions"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UjAZnGeBcgg

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#135

Post by stowaway496 »

silisili wrote: post #99
madphilosopher wrote: post #68

Auto makers will decide that putting 6 headlights on pickup trucks is no longer competitive. Consequently, they will innovate that the world needs pickup trucks with 8 headlights, starting in 2025. FML.

I don't care if they have 100 lights, I just want us to go back to the soft yellow bulbs, instead of whatever we use now that pierces my retinas.

There should be a standard regulation on automakers to provide only yellow light bulbs and limits on lumens. Also, should be law to enforce it is followed and not modified.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#136

Post by _DeadFred_ »

bruce511 wrote: post #91
thepuppet33r wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm still not sure how they plan to enforce this. Even now, I see an age verification popup on both illicit sites and even sites I feel are innocuous. But I can just click that I'm old enough to move on. If the social media companies are only trying to shift blame, this makes sense. They're not liable if the customer lies. But if that loophole is closed, the only way to enforce age approved sites would be a global id…

There's a parent-driven approach I'm hearing about more and more. Parents in a school get together and agree on smartphone accessibility. For example "no smart phone till high school, dumb Nokia for comms if required". This is hyper-local but works well because there's no peer pressure- nobody has one etc. The other effective approach in play is "no screens in private areas" - ie no screens in bedrooms and bathrooms.…

Sounds like a business opportunity. Make a token (Bluetooth low energy token?) that parents can place in the location where devices can be used. Either have it baked into the hardware's software (so Apple would need to support it) or sell a Wifi router that only allows the 'screen' devices to connect to wifi when the token senses the device (which would make it work for any device with wifi and Bluetooth token's ranges).

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#137

Post by jauntywundrkind »

thepuppet33r wrote: post #66
CubsFan1060 wrote: post #11

There are even more restrictions aimed at stopping kids using social media. Restrictions on phone use in schools, who can sign up for social media, etc.. Additionally, that it'll eventually prove to be a wild success, with significant benefit to kids. On the darker side, the same technologies and restrictions will be applied in various ways to adults (similar to the porn verification laws), which will have significan…

I'm still not sure how they plan to enforce this. Even now, I see an age verification popup on both illicit sites and even sites I feel are innocuous. But I can just click that I'm old enough to move on. If the social media companies are only trying to shift blame, this makes sense. They're not liable if the customer lies. But if that loophole is closed, the only way to enforce age approved sites would be a global id…

Quite unfortunately imo Google is full steam ahead building the Digital Credentials API, a standard way to have the browser present verifiable identification. Paving the way for the most ghastly intrusion of governments onto the internet; what a horrible thing to do to the internet!

> allows websites to selectively request verifiable information about the user through digital credentials such as a driver's license or a national identification card stored in a digital wallet.

https://developer.chrome.com/blog/digital-credentials-api-or...

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#138

Post by ptero »

stackghost wrote: post #110
andrewinardeer wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This 100%. The monstrous debt storm just over the horizon that most people can't see (or refuse to acknowledge) will hit and will hit hard. The Fed won't be able to restrain or lessen it with policies and blunt instruments at their disposal. Over the last 4 months I've moved most of my investments to gold, trading cards, BTC, wine, land and rare earth.

I'm not American but would like to read more about this "debt storm", since your politics move world markets. Can you provide some jumping-off points for the financially-literate?

"Broken Money" by Lyn Alden is a good engineering background. Then, for example, read one of many macro articles on fiscal dominance.

You do not have to read Lyn first, but without reading it on modern financial systems I personally would not understand most technical points in the current macro discussions.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#139

Post by anonzzzies »

hypoxia wrote: post #33

I think the defining story of 2025 will be AI agents getting very good with computer use, largely enabled by RL fine tuning.

Lets hope so; computer use with AI is currently absolutely terrible. It is something I expected to see far larger progress in this year but it's no better than last year.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#140

Post by uncomplexity_ »

abetusk wrote: post #108

* Solar energy will account for around 8% (give or take 1%?) of the worlds energy usage * We'll see the worlds first trillionaire * Bitcoin will reach $200k+, and remain largely stable around that price, at the end of 2025 * Generative AI for music will continue to improve substantially. I have a lack of imagination, but maybe something like on demand streaming services, maybe targeted to niche music genres (lo-fi, e…

banger.

on real life image and video intelligence though i think google will take the lead here as they just have monopoly on dataset here given they have google images and youtube.

on proprietary general intelligence ai i think openai and anthropic will keep their lead, while on open source mark zuckerberg will be continuously leveling the playing field so the general population can keep up in terms of availability of access and end-result productivity.

something to keep eye on though is china. have you guys seen their recent open source models? very impressive. looking at it, it seems like a head to head battle between USA and China. Europe seems heavily distracted with its regulations and politics.

> I have a lack of imagination, but maybe something like on demand streaming services, maybe targeted to niche music genres (lo-fi, electronica, elevator/hold/office music)

goddamn that would be interesting. it's gonna be great to see lots of micro communities offering better content than netflix/disney/hbo etc which is prone to political and non-political influences and slow-downs in production.

> Generative AI for video will continue to improve substantially. The best I can come up with is that there will be a breakout indie film or music video that's produced from a skeleton crew relying heavily on generative AI video.

i wonder how much of the industry will transition into pure prompting too. back then we used manual instruments and talented voice actors for voice, these days you could (possibly) produce similar results if you're skilled enough to precisely describe it to the ai you are directing / working with.

> The cost of robots and other robotics will drop substantially, providing a reasonable bipedal option at $8k

huge bet on this too, the brains are getting better and for sure yc's request for startup will eventually have a section dedicated for the body and limb part targetting different industries.

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