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Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

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Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#141

Post by viraptor »

* I was hoping for that this year, but: split of LLMs into databases and reasoning. Think small, capable PHI with pluggable information. Currently we're burning a lot of energy both to learn and process everything at once. The next step will be something closer to RAG, potentially selecting databases to load depending on topic, like a librarian. This will both enable more client-side applications and save lots of money for providers.

* Some AI provider seriously looking at / funding RWVK?

* (More) Healthcare issues in the US, spilling into other countries. (or just the beginning of them anyway - effects will last much longer and life expectancy will decline)

* Some companies seriously looking at AI as another manager / decision maker. Quietly, not as a publicity stunt like it's done now.

* Google search market share falling further. Maybe 85%, down from the current 90%. (more of a wish than a prediction)

* US policies / ideas around cryptocurrency will be wildly incoherent, causing big swings every month

* Consumer RISC-V laptops (again, wishlist)

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#142

Post by _DeadFred_ »

uncomplexity_ wrote: post #133
subsection1h wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> God, this thread is bleak. [...] I have to replace my bike tires. Your bike tires have contributed to the microplastic crisis. :-)

and it's now inside our testicles ;)

'you got bike tire in my testicals!'

isn't quite as catchy as the old Reese's cup 'you got chocolate in my peanut butter' version but somehow sums up 2024.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#143

Post by intended »

We move to the post truth economy.

Info and culture war stuff remains an attackers arena. The market place of ideas continues to become less efficient for the average Joe.

Wikipedia starts to collapse. We move from artisanal content moderation to industrial content moderation.

People who can afford it, pay for accuracy and verified information.

Centralization of trust sources begins again.

People who can’t afford it follow tribal leaders.

Polarization passes singularity levels.

AI performs worse than expected, but continues to be made more tractable.

This results in public push back against AI, because no one in the labor force wants the neo liberal era to return.

The DSA data reports on Social Media create at least 1 furore by q1.

Markets wait with bated breath for the signs of contraction, and any contraction results in contagion effects.

No one expects the trump tariffs.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#144

Post by anonzzzies »

wruza wrote: post #84
rvz wrote: post #52

Given the hype in AI and crypto, I unfortunately predict that there will be widespread layoffs in 2025. Usually I had a habit of getting my predictions on point, now I hope this prediction is wrong since we all know most predictions in this thread will be wrong; just like last year.

This is actually relieving. People are very pessimistic itt (lol see the top comment for the past year https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38777115 ).

I find this all way too optimistic. Cannot imagine any of this year current top comment will happen with grifters at the top of the biggest economy, and with the speed of AI taking out jobs (which people deny here, I guess because big traditional companies are lagging behind); I think in 2025 this will become very visible.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#145

Post by viraptor »

unsnap_biceps wrote: post #73
madphilosopher wrote: post #68

Auto makers will decide that putting 6 headlights on pickup trucks is no longer competitive. Consequently, they will innovate that the world needs pickup trucks with 8 headlights, starting in 2025. FML.

Honestly, I think the headlight "bars" like on the Rivian R1T or Cybertruck is going to be the standard going forward. It gives a better driving experience (to the driver, way worse for the other drivers...)

> way worse for the other drivers

Light bars selectively disabling some LED segments (as in not blinding other drivers) are already a thing, but... they're not allowed in the US. If the regulation around it comes closer to the EU one, everyone will be better off.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#146

Post by petabyt »

- Valve releases a Steam client for ARM64 and makes native ports of all their games, other companies follow and ARM becomes a much more viable platform for both Windows and Linux

- People will continue to push back against genAI, every company will still be split on whether to use it in marketing, customer support, etc (no change)

- Trump administration slashes a lot of regulations that affect manufacturing as he tries to make the US less dependent on imports, it doesn't make a huge difference though

- Trump to meet Putin in person

- AI hype cycle reaches a peak, bubble bursts soon after

- Linux market share 6% by end of year

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#147

Post by Imustaskforhelp »

benjaminwootton wrote: post #112
abetusk wrote: post #108

* Solar energy will account for around 8% (give or take 1%?) of the worlds energy usage * We'll see the worlds first trillionaire * Bitcoin will reach $200k+, and remain largely stable around that price, at the end of 2025 * Generative AI for music will continue to improve substantially. I have a lack of imagination, but maybe something like on demand streaming services, maybe targeted to niche music genres (lo-fi, e…

I think you’d need an almighty market rally for some of these. For the first trillionaire we’d need to see Tesla double and the market would need to be going bananas for Bitcoin to 2x. Remember 2024 has been a monster year in the markets and they just indicated they are slowing down the rate cuts.

I know right , I think he might be too bullish on bitcoin for it to double , though I may be wrong but it just feels like there would be swings because I still believe that there is no use of bitcoin , Its just that its the one which started these coins and there could be better one for use cases , maybe like IDK monero for real anonymous transactions , but even then these are more of a sidekick thing which I don't think I would ever use but I still like the idea of monero , I really really stay away from crypto.

I like index funds so much , that everything else feels a time / effort waste even though I am aspiring to be a programmer , maybe that's partially why I don't see much reason in crypto.

I just think of index funding 80% + bonds 20% or maybe 100% index fund into my own country index ,and maybe having some backup money in need , probably in a liquid fixed deposit or having multiple bank accounts and giving them all the maximum amount of money which is guaranteed to be given to me if a bank fails by the govt. , probably 10k$ is enough in my country or maybe I am still over estimating.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#148

Post by thepuppet33r »

subsection1h wrote: post #75
thepuppet33r wrote: post #65

God, this thread is bleak. Not undeservedly, but...woof. Nobody's mentioned antibiotic resistant bacteria much that I saw, so that'll probably keep being more and more of an issue. Everyone predicted a second Great Depression during Covid that lined up with 1929... Well, Trump and his friends might drive us toward that in 2029, or earlier. AI peaks and we can't eke out much more real benefit from it, but there's too…

> God, this thread is bleak. [...] I have to replace my bike tires. Your bike tires have contributed to the microplastic crisis. :-)

Not if I burn them! Then they contribute to the air quality issue! Time to go cry in the corner!

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#149

Post by anonzzzies »

kypro wrote: post #105

An interesting prediction is one that is predictive of something impactful and correctly predicts something which is currently significantly under weighted by others. Given this I'll say that 2025 is going to be a significant year geopolitically and economically for Western Europe. Social unrest is rising here, especially around the topic of immigration, and countries like France and the UK are currently on a path to…

I agree with you (living in europe as well); I don't think it will happen in 2025; probably trump year 1 will go fine and europe will just go further down as it is. But somewhere in this trump term, all dominos will fall: US debt storm, normal people in the biggest economy no longer being able to live of their wages, the rich owning all, followed by a massive recession; this will be the final straw for a weakened europe. I am not entirely sure how to arm for this, but I will have to find out.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#150

Post by thepuppet33r »

bruce511 wrote: post #91
thepuppet33r wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm still not sure how they plan to enforce this. Even now, I see an age verification popup on both illicit sites and even sites I feel are innocuous. But I can just click that I'm old enough to move on. If the social media companies are only trying to shift blame, this makes sense. They're not liable if the customer lies. But if that loophole is closed, the only way to enforce age approved sites would be a global id…

There's a parent-driven approach I'm hearing about more and more. Parents in a school get together and agree on smartphone accessibility. For example "no smart phone till high school, dumb Nokia for comms if required". This is hyper-local but works well because there's no peer pressure- nobody has one etc. The other effective approach in play is "no screens in private areas" - ie no screens in bedrooms and bathrooms.…

Maybe I was just a bad kid, but if my parents had done something like this, my friends and I would have pooled our cash and bought a used phone.

That wouldn't invalidate this and it would still be better, but just FYI. Any parent-driven solution would be seen as the parents being ridiculous and unfair by the kids, at least at first.

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