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The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

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Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#751

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm 100% with you. Dodge has the 2025 ramcharger which has amazing specs! 690 mile range, 14,000lb towing capacity, 663 hp, etc. etc. I've got reservations about dodge, and reservations about the first year of the model from any manufactuerer. Otherwise, I'd gladly shell out 70k+ and my left nut to get one. I really wish more manufacturers would go this direction. I've got no interest in 100% EV, because I do things…

not a PHEV, but I've been incredibly happy with the 2023 F-150 Powerboost. It's a Mild hybrid system, with great towing capacity, power & torque. Does not sound quite as "stout" as the Dodge, but like you I have my reservations about the brand. I've been Using it as a honest work truck in the civil engineering / construction world, and have been able to get 600 miles from a tank without trying too hard. I've seen ple…

Hey! It's a fellow Civil Engineer on HN!

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#752

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That isn't quite true. They are aware of EV trucks - they won't buy one of course, but they are aware. They spread stories about those trucks not having any useful range (which is true - when pulling a trailer or driving well over the speed limit the EVs lose range) Those diesel trucks they drive get 600 miles unloaded.

I think the Cybertruck has a lot of crossover appeal.

Aside from being useless? That truck is a toy, nothing more. You better have a backup vehicle.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#753
post #737

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A $100k pickup isn't a regular pickup, anymore than an $80k sedan is a regular sedan. It's gotta be more expensive than 95% of the pickups on the road. If it gets 11 mpg it must have a really beefy engine and be geared for towing. If it uses premium fuel, it's one of the badged models likely. One thing that's odd about the pickup market is it isn't segmented into low tier/mid tier/luxury tier the way other vehicles a…

how is it efficient when there's regulation that prevents manufacturers from directly selling, and have to go through dealers?

Tesla sells directly but the market is not perfect. An imperfect market can still be efficient. It’s a spectrum not a binary.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#754
post #717

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A slight increase? Particulates increase with the 4th power of weight, and EVs way a significant amount more.

Now I think I know where you're pulling that fourth power from. You're probably thinking of road wear which does scale like that. But that's road wear, not tire wear, and doesn't result in the same airborne particulate issue here. And even then, it's small potatoes compared to actual big trucks and busses rolling on the roads.

I was thinking about road wear. I had thought the same equation applied to both tires and the road. Why wouldn't the increases in wear on both increase in the same way? (You seem to know why, so honest question, not snark)

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#755
post #717

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A slight increase? Particulates increase with the 4th power of weight, and EVs way a significant amount more.

Go digging into the details of the comparison in the article above. They're comparing a Model Y to a Kia Niro FHEV. https://www.emissionsanalytics.com/news/do-no-harm The Model Y has +89% more volume. Its considerably bigger car with more torque. It's not a good comparison. And even though its 32% heavier and has a ton more torque, its tire wear was 26% greater. You're arguing it goes up by the fourth power, but it w…

It says the Kia has 50% as many emissions even once you add the tailpipe emissions. Because the larger Model Y tires offgas more.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#756
post #755

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Go digging into the details of the comparison in the article above. They're comparing a Model Y to a Kia Niro FHEV. https://www.emissionsanalytics.com/news/do-no-harm The Model Y has +89% more volume. Its considerably bigger car with more torque. It's not a good comparison. And even though its 32% heavier and has a ton more torque, its tire wear was 26% greater. You're arguing it goes up by the fourth power, but it w…

It says the Kia has 50% as many emissions even once you add the tailpipe emissions. Because the larger Model Y tires offgas more.

Let me reiterate it again. The Kia is a much smaller car with way less torque. It is a poor comparison from the get-go. Go find a similar sized vehicle with a similar amount of torque. But this study is pretty heavily biased, so they chose their cars accordingly.

But let's continue on and see what it is you're trying to point out.

> Kia has 50% as many emissions

You're now talking about the VOCs table at the bottom. This is a pretty bullshit test overall.

> Large samples from one tyre on each vehicle were also taken and placed in a ‘microchamber’ heated to 20 degrees Celsius, around the temperature of a vehicle certification test, and held at that level for the same duration of the on-road EQUA test – around three-and-a-half hours. The off-gassed VOCs were analysed and quantified, and then scaled up by the relative surface area of the sample to that of all four tyres on the vehicle. The results are shown in the table below.

So, this isn't actually testing the tires under load on the car at all, they're just baking a small piece in the oven and scaling the resulting VOCs to the size of the tires. This test isn't testing the car, its testing the tire. There are no controls over this test. It's just a tire of an unknown age from one car with a part cut out and a tire of an unknown age from another car with a part cut out. The brands and models are pretty different, which could lead to pretty radical results.

If I put brand new tires on that Kia and used some pretty old ones on the Tesla those numbers would look radically different. Even two different models of tires from the same manufacturer could yield vastly different numbers. If you used the exact same model from the exact same manufacturer made at the same time the car with bigger tires would have the worst emissions, which says absolutely nothing about whether that's a tire going on an EV or a sedan with a hybrid engine or a truck with a DEF delete getting 6 MPG. See how that's then a pretty poor test?

Seriously friendo, read the studies you're wanting to use to talk about these things. There's so many absolutely bullshit studies trying to get you to think one way or another. Don't just go "table says 57%, ev bad!"

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#757
post #754

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Now I think I know where you're pulling that fourth power from. You're probably thinking of road wear which does scale like that. But that's road wear, not tire wear, and doesn't result in the same airborne particulate issue here. And even then, it's small potatoes compared to actual big trucks and busses rolling on the roads.

I was thinking about road wear. I had thought the same equation applied to both tires and the road. Why wouldn't the increases in wear on both increase in the same way? (You seem to know why, so honest question, not snark)

I don't fully know but it is probably something to do with the fact tires are designed to be more malleable and flexible than roads. The tire is also flexing and pushing on an air cushion while the road itself is being pressed against and having to flex with the ground.

Also, almost all the particulate emissions are due to the abrasive nature of the road-tire interface tearing apart the tire. Tires are a cheaper and simpler wear items than roads, something is going to give, so we've decided we'll replace our tires more often than tearing up our roads. Just like if you ever got road rash, the road is going to tear you up far more than you're going to tear the road up. So, while the road forms cracks and what not from its repeated stresses it's not coming apart like dust nearly as much. Don't get me wrong, some small, tiny amount of it does but not nearly as much as the tire.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#758

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US Congress has mandated a growing list of advanced features, leading to complex vehicles, complex supply chains, and higher sticker prices.

If that were true, you wouldn't be able to buy multiple vehicles for under $18,000, which would have been a $10,000 vehicle at the turn of the century. How many $10,000 cars do you remember from 2000? I was in the market for my 3rd car by then and I can tell you the answer was zero. Cars are actually cheaper today than they've ever been DESPITE the increased safety and emissions features and you are exactly wrong in…

You are very passionate about retail car prices.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#759
post #573

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That number is in the ballpark of what it costs to install solar on a rooftop here in Minnesota. The other part is these solar gardens don't stop paying for your electric bill if you move, so it's especially equitable for renters.

6.9MW / 700 homes is 9.85 kW/home. Two of these would do more than that (10.5 kW), for (at current exchange rates) $5934, or just over a quarter that price: https://www.kaufland.de/product/512021383/?search_value=sola... And even at that price, it's overlapping in price range with the non-solar equivalents. The funny thing is, I grew up (in the UK) with news stories about how the latest computers were so expensive in…

can one even get that german made solar kit in the usa?

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#760

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your average, rather small, gasoline pump 'charges' an ICE at an average speed around 4000 KW, effectively 1200 KW after accounting for moderate efficiency -- hybrids will get better. Good EV charging today is a peak around 300 KW with a much lower average. Honestly, _averaging_ 300 KW is probably within a factor of 2 of the highest we'll do for light vehicles given economic (how much electric distribution infrastruc…

Or you could have drop in batteries? You pull up to a charging station, they take your battery and replace it with one charged to 100%. Does this require further work? Yes of course. We are definitely not there yet, and we may never get there. But let's not pretend that this is an insurmountable problem.

Battery swapping has so many serious pragmatic problems I don't think we'll ever see it offered at scale for public use. It could be a fit for large private fleets however.

On the engineering side:

- Swapping requires standardization of batteries across models and manufacturers. To accommodate different vehicles the batteries will need to be rather small so most vehicles will need multiple swapped every time

- Requires more space and weight because the battery cannot be structural. This will reduce the overall range of EVs

- Connectors for high voltage, signalling, cooling fluid, and high strength mechanical rated for thousands of cycles in the face of road grime and poorly maintained swap robots will not be small. Cooling system contamination will be a serious concern.

On the financial side:

- Batteries are expensive, how do you track and reclaim them across the entire continent? What about theft? Destruction insurance?

- With swappable batteries the incentive is to store them at 100% then run them 100% to 0%, which is especially bad for battery longevity

- How do you deal with batteries swapped at different 'swap' networks?

On the user side:

- What if the swap station is out of batteries when you need them? Are you always gambling on holiday weekends that you won't need to sit for hours charging (if that is even possible!)?

- Since some batteries will be more worn than others, how do you deal with constant variability of range because maybe last week you got a new set of batteries and next week you'll get an older set with only 80% capacity left.

- Are you allowed to charge at home? How is the wear from that charged?

- Did I buy a battery with my car, or are cars no longer batteries included? If my car came with a battery, how do I know I get it back? Do I get paid for the wear other users put on it? Do I need to retrieve my battery from the same station on the way home after a road trip?

That's just off the top of my head. I'm sure there are others. Most of these issues are solvable with unlikely levels of corporate cooperation or immense levels of excess capital expenditure. However, they all cost money and will reduce the economic viability of battery-swap EVs versus every other vehicle type.

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