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The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

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Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#741

Post by dh2022 »

llm_trw wrote: post #613
JeremyNT wrote: post #561

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do think part of it is how darned long cars last now. I have an 18 year old car that I purchased used long ago and currently has no mechanical issues. I've had a few repairs but nothing terribly expensive. I have no interest in replacing it. When you think about it, people who are frugal will buy practical and cost effective cars and drive them for a decade or more (that is, if they buy a car at all!). That means t…

The difference is that new cars are safe cars. Old cars are death traps. If you value your life you will be buying the new shiny every 5 years or less.

If only those 4 people that burned to death in a Tesla last week [1] would have a chance to revisit their vehicle choice...

[1] https://people.com/4-killed-after-tesla-crash-sparks-fire-in...

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#742

Post by nytesky »

616c wrote: post #614
llm_trw wrote: post #613

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The difference is that new cars are safe cars. Old cars are death traps. If you value your life you will be buying the new shiny every 5 years or less.

Is there evidence for the rationale for five years or less for the age of a car? I hate all the entertainment systems and believe anything beyond Bluetooth and no complex entertainment system to be a lethal distraction that makes cars just as unsafe as older or weaker safety controls.

I do think CarPlay is very helpful for navigation, I mean, I can read map because I’m old but my kids and my wife when they’re driving need a onscreen display if they’re going somewhere new. And the CarPlay or similar provides a good navigation option that I think is safer than mounting a phone.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#743

Post by twoWhlsGud »

evgen wrote: post #650
llm_trw wrote: post #613

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The difference is that new cars are safe cars. Old cars are death traps. If you value your life you will be buying the new shiny every 5 years or less.

It is one of those 'was it really that long ago? I am getting old' moments to actually look this up, but the last major safety features which moved the needle on keeping you alive in a car were the mandates for side-impact protection and anti-lock braking systems. Both are more than ten years old. I think you would be hard-pressed to name a single innovation from the past five years which has increased your lifespan…

Anti-lock brakes, if I remember correctly, had essentially no safety effect in the real world. Stability control, on the other hand, dropped single car accidents by something like a third. Perhaps you were thinking of that?

Regardless of that, the threat environment has changed pretty dramatically in the last two decades. I gave up my 2006 VW sedan for a new SUV this year because the IIHS numbers had started to look bad for lighter vehicles.

https://www.iihs.org/ratings/driver-death-rates-by-make-and-...

Back in 2006 the previous gen VW Passat was basically as safe as anything you could buy (according to their dataset). Now you need something a lot bigger to be upper tier.

The new vehicle is a plug-in so in the first 4 months of driving I've more than doubled my fuel efficiency. So there's that, anyway.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#744

Post by derwiki »

m463 wrote: post #637
JeremyNT wrote: post #561

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do think part of it is how darned long cars last now. I have an 18 year old car that I purchased used long ago and currently has no mechanical issues. I've had a few repairs but nothing terribly expensive. I have no interest in replacing it. When you think about it, people who are frugal will buy practical and cost effective cars and drive them for a decade or more (that is, if they buy a car at all!). That means t…

I think of the last generation of pro-level film cameras. They were expensive, but well designed and durable, yet ... who wants to pay in time and money to develop film every 36 pictures? I think some really good gas cars only make sense if you use them infrequently to haul heavy things or lots of passengers. Otherwise it is getting cheaper to run an EV - you might even charge it with electricity you capture yourself…

With PG&E it really feels like the cost to run an EV keeps increasing.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#745

Post by peanball »

dh2022 wrote: post #740
digitallis42 wrote: post #658

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Adaptive cruise was still higher end at that time. Certainly not ubiquitous at the mid tier. Heck, it's barely ubiquitous now. Both adaptive cruise and automatic emergency braking are game changer features for safety on the highway.

Adaptive driving is a nuisance for me whenever I rent a new car (it seems most of the rentals have this feature). Those visual and audio cues going off when I am in the middle of changing lanes is very disconcerting - and makes me lose focus for a fraction of a second. I wish I could turn it off - but after one look at that hot mess on that center touch-screen I back off in repulsion. (I also do not like the lights o…

Usually they don’t beep on lane changes when you use the indicators before switching.

The lights in the side mirrors are also not removing the obligation to check your blind spot.

Both help, but don’t take away your responsibility as driver.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#746

Post by choilive »

itsoktocry wrote: post #601
choilive wrote: post #369

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We do. Through community solar programs low/medium income households can get anywhere from 10%-50% off their electricity supply costs.

Oh, the low income people only have to pay 50-90% of the costs eh?

Yes..? What are you trying to get at?

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#747

Post by com2kid »

noworriesnate wrote: post #275
WorldMaker wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Pretty much everywhere but the US has the option of getting an electric car for under $25,000 from BYD or Renault. The US is afraid of competition in the automotive industry and the current import tariffs and taxes on cars are a bit of an elephant in the room here, too.

We have three choices: 1) compete by enslaving our workers and treating them horribly like they do in China, 2) refuse to compete by simply outsourcing the slavery to China, or 3) compete by treat our workers well, use tariffs and tacitly admit that Trump has a good idea. Option 2 seems like the only option that is afraid of competition.

Labor is at most 10% of the overall cost of a car.

Now explain the remaining 15k of price difference!

Sure another 5 or 6k is subsidies from the Chinese government to the manufacturers, but there is still another $10k more that American cars cost VS Chinese cars.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#748

Post by hnburnsy »

dh2022 wrote: post #741
llm_trw wrote: post #613

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The difference is that new cars are safe cars. Old cars are death traps. If you value your life you will be buying the new shiny every 5 years or less.

If only those 4 people that burned to death in a Tesla last week [1] would have a chance to revisit their vehicle choice... [1] https://people.com/4-killed-after-tesla-crash-sparks-fire-in...

> If only those 4 people that burned to death in a Tesla last week [1] would have a chance to revisit their vehicle choice... >

Kind of a weird story for People magazine to be covering, but I guess any story with Tesla gets clicks. Doesn't say if the fire or the high speed impact killed those passengers.

Anyhoo, I'd bet those 140+ people killed by GMs ignition switch wish they had a chance to revisit their car buying choice.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#749

Post by short_sells_poo »

travisb wrote: post #698
short_sells_poo wrote: post #384

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Even if charging infrastructure was perfect EVs still require a significant amount of time to charge compared to refueling an ICE vehicle. That's just down to charging infrastructure no? Sure, there are physical limits to how much electricity one can move in a given time, but we are nowhere at those physical limits. So it's just down to infrastructure in the end. If there was infrastructure to quickly and reliably…

Your average, rather small, gasoline pump 'charges' an ICE at an average speed around 4000 KW, effectively 1200 KW after accounting for moderate efficiency -- hybrids will get better. Good EV charging today is a peak around 300 KW with a much lower average. Honestly, _averaging_ 300 KW is probably within a factor of 2 of the highest we'll do for light vehicles given economic (how much electric distribution infrastruc…

Or you could have drop in batteries? You pull up to a charging station, they take your battery and replace it with one charged to 100%.

Does this require further work? Yes of course. We are definitely not there yet, and we may never get there. But let's not pretend that this is an insurmountable problem.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#750

Post by dangus »

throwawaymaths wrote: post #700
dangus wrote: post #636

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Something you have to understand is that the Aptera is bound to fail because it has two doors, two seats. That's why the Honda Insight failed. The car didn't look crazy, it looked like a Civic. It didn't sell because was a tiny two-seater. Look at the top 25 selling vehicles in America. Not one is lacking four door, 4+ passengers. The ceiling for two door vehicles is the Ford Mustang. Ford sells about 50,000 of them,…

So, I've met a lot of aptera investors and reservation holders and, (modulo selection bias, ofc), your characterization of them is incorrect. By far most of them are considering keeping a utility car and using aptera as a daily driver for work. It's not so expensive that that is crazy thing to do or want. Anyways, time will tell which of us is correct.

Obviously, I don't expect them to try and become the next Tesla or Toyota and make a car for every person, but there are just not a lot of car companies that can survive selling 10 or 20 thousands units per year, especially at an affordable price rather than selling a small amount of high volume luxury vehicles.

You look at the situation Jaguar is in where they are desperately pausing all production for an entire year to retool and try to come back and solely make six figure luxury vehicle to support their small volumes and that makes me wonder how Aptera can swing it with such a niche vehicle.

I totally believe you that there are people who want to use the Aptera this way. The problem with that is that for $30k there are a lot of options to fill that need that are very similarly eco-friendly and low cost of fuel.

$30k will buy you a Tesla Model 3 or Toyota Prius and both of those cars have extra utility by having double the seating capacity.

I just think that if this efficient commuter vehicle concept was more popular we would see more two-door cars around, vehicles like the original Honda Insight. You even see cars like the Mini Cooper and Mazda Miata that can fill this personal car role for many people facing declining sales numbers: people really demand 4 doors.

The thing is, someone who is buying a second car for $30k is far up the affluence ladder. Most people when they buy a car need it to do everything: commuting, transporting friends and family, making Home Depot runs. Having a second brand new $30k car just to commute is a huge luxury.

And that type of affluent person probably has a home with a garage, which kind of negates the solar charging concept immediately.

So, in my opinion, you really need to buy this car not for economic reasons, not for reasons of enjoyment/fun driving experience (like a sports car), but for ideological reasons. And that can be a tough sell.

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