FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

Post by hnburnsy » Thu, Nov 14, 2024, 6:20 AM UTC

hnburnsy wrote: post #180

seizethecheese wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These imputed opinions tend to do a better job than traditional news. On election night, polymarket was ahead of the news channels every step of the way. Edit: to be clear, I’m referring to polymarket essentially “calling” each swing state well before the networks did. I’m not just referring to the overall outcome.

DDHQ was also significantly ahead of the large media, and seemed to be what lead some of the moves in the betting markets. Seems like anyone at DDHQ with the fore-knowledge of the race calling could have easily front ran the betting markets. Same with Nate Silver and his daily releases. In the back of my mind I also wonder about that last minute Iowa pollster who released an outlier poll.

Post by hnburnsy » Thu, Nov 14, 2024, 6:27 AM UTC

_zgx0 wrote: post #45

sitzkrieg wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

are futures markets gambling in your eyes because speculators can participate?

Futures markets serve an important role outside of speculation, i.e. producers managing their future price risk. Betting markets do not.

Post by mrcode007 » Thu, Nov 14, 2024, 7:34 AM UTC

throwaway2037 wrote: post #148

mrcode007 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IIRC There is only one prediction market with a single regulatory exemption granted for the University of Iowa and the bets are limited to $500. The rest of what we see are (binary) event contracts (options) Based on my understanding, which may be incorrect, they seem to be basically a rebranding of binary options which were illegal in the US for the longest time. With a clever renaming trick things now work :)

Wow, I never knew about this exchange: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_Electronic_Markets Thank you to share. > Rules and limits > The IEM is neither regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) nor by any other agency due to its academic focus and the small sums that are involved. Indeed, the IEM has received two no-action letters that extend no‑action relief. A speculator may put at risk in…

Post by aaron695 » Thu, Nov 14, 2024, 9:02 AM UTC

moomin wrote: post #70

neilv wrote: post #28

> "This is obvious political retribution by the outgoing administration against Polymarket for providing a market that correctly called the 2024 presidential election," a Polymarket spokesperson tells Axios. When I saw that statement, from a company spokesperson, it was striking. Is it now respectable and advisable for a corporation to make official statements like this?

There’s people in the comments characterising this as political positioning, and I think they’re dead on. However, it continues to do my head in how utterly ridiculous this statement is. Literally, there’s not even a motive.

Post by kccoder » Thu, Nov 14, 2024, 9:54 AM UTC

ianhawes wrote: post #141

koolba wrote: post #2

According to the NY Post they came in at 6am this morning and seized his phone and other electronics: https://nypost.com/2024/11/13/business/fbi-seizes-polymarket...

Heavily armed agents of the Federal Government.