Can we please stop calling them "prediction markets". This only legitimizes what they really are, "gambling exchanges".
FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan
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Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan
#12Can we please stop calling them "prediction markets". This only legitimizes what they really are, "gambling exchanges".
I am not familiar with the term 'gambling exchange', where'd you get it? Many 'sportsbooks' are referred to as 'betting exchanges', but that has become something of a term of art, much like the term 'prediction market'.
In any case, attempting to use a derogatory or denigrating euphemism to refer to something is usually less productive than simply exposing (what you perceive to be) its faults. What specific issues do you have with these markets/exchanges?
Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan
#13Can we please stop calling them "prediction markets". This only legitimizes what they really are, "gambling exchanges".
I am not familiar with the term 'gambling exchange', where'd you get it? Many 'sportsbooks' are referred to as 'betting exchanges', but that has become something of a term of art, much like the term 'prediction market'. In any case, attempting to use a derogatory or denigrating euphemism to refer to something is usually less productive than simply exposing (what you perceive to be) its faults. What specific issues do…
Not GP, but I suspect it's the gambling part? Hence the name?
Gambling is a destructive addition that the vast majority of participants cannot manage well. It harms not only them, but their children and their spouses. How many a kid's college fund has gone up in smoke? A lot of harm is done to very innocent people in pursuit of a ten second rush. (Much like all other addictions.)
I also very respectfully disagree that inventing a name for something is not productive - it's incredible effective, in fact. That's why political campaigns often favour duelling names over hot button issues: it's easier to win broad based support from soccer moms and football dads for 'marriage equality', whereas 'homosexual marriage' may be a harder sell. See also 'medicare for all' versus 'socialized medicine', 'pro-choice' v 'pro-life' etc.
Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan
#14Can we please stop calling them "prediction markets". This only legitimizes what they really are, "gambling exchanges".
I am not familiar with the term 'gambling exchange', where'd you get it? Many 'sportsbooks' are referred to as 'betting exchanges', but that has become something of a term of art, much like the term 'prediction market'. In any case, attempting to use a derogatory or denigrating euphemism to refer to something is usually less productive than simply exposing (what you perceive to be) its faults. What specific issues do…
But it is not derogatory or euphemistic, it is descriptive. Polymarket is gambling by any definition. Gambling is known and proven to have great harms and risks to society.
(And I got the term "gambling exchange" from the UK where Betfair Exhange basically does what Polymarket do since 2000, without the Crypto glamour.)
Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan
#15Earlier quoted context omitted.
I am not familiar with the term 'gambling exchange', where'd you get it? Many 'sportsbooks' are referred to as 'betting exchanges', but that has become something of a term of art, much like the term 'prediction market'. In any case, attempting to use a derogatory or denigrating euphemism to refer to something is usually less productive than simply exposing (what you perceive to be) its faults. What specific issues do…
But it is not derogatory or euphemistic, it is descriptive. Polymarket is gambling by any definition. Gambling is known and proven to have great harms and risks to society. (And I got the term "gambling exchange" from the UK where Betfair Exhange basically does what Polymarket do since 2000, without the Crypto glamour.)
are futures markets gambling in your eyes because speculators can participate?
Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan
#16I think the key factor here is that the website allowed Americans to bet on the political market. Which I still don't quite understand, the FBI waiting until after the election for this. Why didn't they go after them sooner? Feels wrong.
Robinhood launched a new feature where we could bet on the presidential candidate. I've heard of a couple others too, so I think that laws were created and funded by competitors, and they defined what was legal in a way that excluded polymarket.
I think in this case, polymarket allows betting on anything, competitors got betting on the election legalized (https://www.barrons.com/news/last-minute-legal-ruling-allows...), so they get the cash from polymarket's idea then get them banned/stopped long enough to take their market share.
VC's call it Regulatory Capture, politicians call it corruption.
Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan
#17[flagged]
Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan
#18He’ll get pardoned. It’s a Thiel company.
Maybe he shouldn’t have been arrested in the first place?
Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan
#19Earlier quoted context omitted.
One explanation is it gives Polymarket more rope to hang themselves with. Trading volume likely spiked in the lead up, and during, election night. Big numbers make for splashier headlines. Another could be concern of doing anything visibly election related prior to the election, in case the winner didn’t like the action.
While I understand that logic, I also find it a bit distasteful. Law enforcement shouldn't tolerate crimes being committed on its watch any longer than necessary. Of course, the exact meaning of "necessary" is the problem. We can probably all agree that letting a serial murderer kill more people in order to have more evidence against him would be an absolute abomination. But the situation is not that clear with white…
They probably have a different definition of what is "necessary" than you. If waiting for further crimes to be committed makes the case more of a sure thing in their eyes) then it's necessary. Or if it gives them more serious crimes to prosecute or a higher up person to prosecute. I believe this is common in organized crime investigations.