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FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

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Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#161

Post by dgfitz »

lesuorac wrote: post #159
dgfitz wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Incorrect. There is no requirement that even an indictment has occurred in the past. This thread started with that statement, which is what I based my comments on. To take the piss on it, only a fool would pardon someone for a crime of which they are not accused. Are you implying that point?

Nixon is the typical example of somebody pardon'd without an indictment. Like it would be wise to imply it could happen because it has! There are a other trivial examples. Confederate solders weren't indicted [1]. The Vietnam draft dodging pardons didn't even name people [2] [3]. Why they would do it? I mean to nullify the 5th amendment right. Maybe you want to prosecute a crime boss so you give somebody a pardon (or…

Sorry, those are your examples? Besides the Nixon disaster (stop hiding behind that) and confederate soldiers, any other examples?

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#162

Post by seizethecheese »

Tenoke wrote: post #154
Terr_ wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> letting people learn what's happening in the world around us I think that phrasing is a bit too optimistic. Even in cases where the "prediction" cannot influence the outcome, the primary "learning about the world" involves the imputed opinions of bettors. Betting at horse-races doesn't teach you nearly as much about horses as actually going to the stables. :P

Err, checking the line on a horse race is a much more reliable way to tell who has what chance of winning than going to the stables as a random person, and most likely for a professional as well.

Excellent point. I’d go further and say it’s likely to be the single best information, much better than consuming media about horse racing.

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#163

Post by seizethecheese »

drexlspivey wrote: post #108
Terr_ wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> letting people learn what's happening in the world around us I think that phrasing is a bit too optimistic. Even in cases where the "prediction" cannot influence the outcome, the primary "learning about the world" involves the imputed opinions of bettors. Betting at horse-races doesn't teach you nearly as much about horses as actually going to the stables. :P

If there is a better predictor than what is implied by the market then someone could make money on it. Hence the odds tend to be pretty accurate (with enough volume) because obvious edges like that tend to go to zero. A good example of that was the last election where people with access to private polls betted heavily and shifted the market one way.

This comment appears to be downvoted for ideological reasons? To me it seems manifestly true. The comment isn’t saying the market is perfect, just that it tends towards the best estimate because of incentives.

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#164

Post by FactKnower69 »

kragen wrote: post #126
which wrote: post #124

I still don't understand the Polymarket business model. Why take the legal risk of $3 billion in volume as an unlicensed commodities exchange if you're not even going to get paid for it? 1% would be $30,000,000!

Idealism, probably. The objective of prediction markets is to improve the collective cognitive capacity of humankind (see Earthweb for a science-fiction exposition of this by way of a rather heavy-handed plot device). Certain people are willing to take great risks to achieve things like that, maybe including Coplan, who I'm not personally acquainted with. See Alex Tabarrok's triumphant take from before the raid: http…

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Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#166

Post by stephen_g »

rty32 wrote: post #46
legitster wrote: post #4

Obviously there are no details yet, but I suspect it's as simple as: - Polymarket is still very illegal in the US - Lol. We all know it's easy to get around that - If the CEO knew or was complicit in US citizens breaking laws, he could be in trouble. And if there was evidence he was encouraging it, he could be in big trouble

The CEO or the company can only be in trouble if they are found guilty in court. That's not going to happen in the next two months, and Trump probably couldn't care less about this.

I'm not in the US, but as far as I know about the country the legal system there keeps running whether the current US President cares about individual cases or not...

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#167

Post by Terr_ »

Tenoke wrote: post #154
Terr_ wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> letting people learn what's happening in the world around us I think that phrasing is a bit too optimistic. Even in cases where the "prediction" cannot influence the outcome, the primary "learning about the world" involves the imputed opinions of bettors. Betting at horse-races doesn't teach you nearly as much about horses as actually going to the stables. :P

Err, checking the line on a horse race is a much more reliable way to tell who has what chance of winning than going to the stables as a random person, and most likely for a professional as well.

My point is that the "learning about what is happening in the world around us" part falls flat when what comes next is "by finding which person to copy test answers from."

I mean, yeah, you technically learn something, but the limitations undercut the sales-pitch.

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#168

Post by [deleted] »

dgfitz wrote: post #161
lesuorac wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nixon is the typical example of somebody pardon'd without an indictment. Like it would be wise to imply it could happen because it has! There are a other trivial examples. Confederate solders weren't indicted [1]. The Vietnam draft dodging pardons didn't even name people [2] [3]. Why they would do it? I mean to nullify the 5th amendment right. Maybe you want to prosecute a crime boss so you give somebody a pardon (or…

Sorry, those are your examples? Besides the Nixon disaster (stop hiding behind that) and confederate soldiers, any other examples?

[deleted]

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#169

Post by balfirevic »

beejiu wrote: post #14
nickff wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not familiar with the term 'gambling exchange', where'd you get it? Many 'sportsbooks' are referred to as 'betting exchanges', but that has become something of a term of art, much like the term 'prediction market'. In any case, attempting to use a derogatory or denigrating euphemism to refer to something is usually less productive than simply exposing (what you perceive to be) its faults. What specific issues do…

But it is not derogatory or euphemistic, it is descriptive. Polymarket is gambling by any definition. Gambling is known and proven to have great harms and risks to society. (And I got the term "gambling exchange" from the UK where Betfair Exhange basically does what Polymarket do since 2000, without the Crypto glamour.)

> But it is not derogatory or euphemistic, it is descriptive. Polymarket is gambling by any definition. Gambling is known and proven to have great harms and risks to society.

Congrats on using the worst argument in the world: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yCWPkLi8wJvewPbEp/the-noncen...

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#170

Post by kragen »

FactKnower69 wrote: post #164
kragen wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Idealism, probably. The objective of prediction markets is to improve the collective cognitive capacity of humankind (see Earthweb for a science-fiction exposition of this by way of a rather heavy-handed plot device). Certain people are willing to take great risks to achieve things like that, maybe including Coplan, who I'm not personally acquainted with. See Alex Tabarrok's triumphant take from before the raid: http…

[flagged]

[flagged]
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