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FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

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Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#151

Post by nl »

cperkins wrote: post #48

If this were aimed at Polymarket and their betting activities, then their lawyers would be getting subpoenas and the like, and a raid on their president would most likely be in concert with raids on their offices. AFAICT, it was only his person targeted. That the FBI raided the home of an individual most likely means a criminal investigation of that person, for a federal crime or a crime that crosses state boundaries…

Bloomberg explicitly says it is part of an investigation of Polymarket allowing US users[1].

I guess it follows the pattern of the Binance investigation where they were able to show the Binance CEO instructed people to make sure the technical measures they implemented to ensure only non-US people were on their exchange were easy to bypass.

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-13/polymarke...

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#153

Post by nl »

orblivion wrote: post #43
legitster wrote: post #4

Obviously there are no details yet, but I suspect it's as simple as: - Polymarket is still very illegal in the US - Lol. We all know it's easy to get around that - If the CEO knew or was complicit in US citizens breaking laws, he could be in trouble. And if there was evidence he was encouraging it, he could be in big trouble

Kalshi got the goahead from an appeals court to list election bets. I think Robinhood added election bets soonafter. Is there a reason that wouldn't apply to Polymarket? Granted, Polymarket was operating before that ruling. https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-federal-court-upholds-rulin...

Kalshi is allowed to offer Futures under supervision of the CFTC[1]. The CFTC had previously said that prediction markets are not futures (they claimed they are illegal gaming), and Kalshi sued to get a ruling that they are futures.

Polymarket has avoided coming under regulation by the CFTC by avoiding US users. For their markets to be legal under current regulations they'd have to have all their markets approved by CFTC.

[1] https://kalshi.com/blog/article/how-is-kalshi-regulated

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#154

Post by Tenoke »

Terr_ wrote: post #101
nomilk wrote: post #84

As a former user of in-trade and more recently of poly market, it is so annoying that there are laws against these sites. They serve an incredibly important function: letting people learn what’s happening in the world around us by observing a single number (e.g. % win probability). I most receently used the site yesterday to see what the incumbent Australian government’s reelection chances are after they tabled ‘ID a…

> letting people learn what's happening in the world around us I think that phrasing is a bit too optimistic. Even in cases where the "prediction" cannot influence the outcome, the primary "learning about the world" involves the imputed opinions of bettors. Betting at horse-races doesn't teach you nearly as much about horses as actually going to the stables. :P

Err, checking the line on a horse race is a much more reliable way to tell who has what chance of winning than going to the stables as a random person, and most likely for a professional as well.

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#155

Post by seizethecheese »

fn-mote wrote: post #133
seizethecheese wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These imputed opinions tend to do a better job than traditional news. On election night, polymarket was ahead of the news channels every step of the way. Edit: to be clear, I’m referring to polymarket essentially “calling” each swing state well before the networks did. I’m not just referring to the overall outcome.

Making these statements after the fact is tricky. Very tricky. I would be interested in a blog post explaining it. The classical fallacy is attributing skill to someone who has successfully predicted 10 coin flips (or market trends) in a row, ignoring the fact that there were many other people making different predictions and there was always going to be one of them who was successful.

Of course this is true, and the observation is underpowered. However, on election night it wasn’t just about being right it was about digesting information in real time and promulgating information faster. For example, polymarket had trump at like 99% likelihood of winning when the networks were still playing “horse race”.

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#156

Post by kwisatzh »

galleywest200 wrote: post #60
kwisatzh wrote: post #8

He’ll get pardoned. It’s a Thiel company.

Accepting a presidential pardon requires an admission of guilt. Would being a confirmed criminal aide them in business in any way?

Public perception of what it means to be convicted has shifted with this election. Thiel of all people wouldn’t care if he is doing business with someone who is convicted, as long as they continue to make him money and push whatever agenda Thiel has.

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#157

Post by seizethecheese »

galleywest200 wrote: post #120
seizethecheese wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These imputed opinions tend to do a better job than traditional news. On election night, polymarket was ahead of the news channels every step of the way. Edit: to be clear, I’m referring to polymarket essentially “calling” each swing state well before the networks did. I’m not just referring to the overall outcome.

I am not sure what that has to do with calling elections. The Associated Press calls who wins, not some random person with $5 to throw away.

Polymarket had each state at above 95% likelihood of trump well ahead of the networks suggesting he was winning each state. It’s not just calling winner, it’s ingesting information faster

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#158

Post by TacticalCoder »

LewisVerstappen wrote: post #116
cperkins wrote: post #48

If this were aimed at Polymarket and their betting activities, then their lawyers would be getting subpoenas and the like, and a raid on their president would most likely be in concert with raids on their offices. AFAICT, it was only his person targeted. That the FBI raided the home of an individual most likely means a criminal investigation of that person, for a federal crime or a crime that crosses state boundaries…

[flagged]

> The FBI is NOT an organization that’s dedicated to keeping Americans safe.

The new Attorney General just said that if the FBI doesn't now begin to serve the interest of the american people, he'd get rid of the FBI altogether.

So using the FBI for political targeting may very well soon.

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#159

Post by lesuorac »

dgfitz wrote: post #145
lesuorac wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty much whatever you got pardon'd for. > [1] The pardon would have put Nixon in a difficult position on the witness stand since he would not have been able to assert any Fifth Amendment privilege when questioned about his actions as president. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pardon_of_Richard_Nixon#Afterm...

> Incorrect. There is no requirement that even an indictment has occurred in the past. This thread started with that statement, which is what I based my comments on. To take the piss on it, only a fool would pardon someone for a crime of which they are not accused. Are you implying that point?

Nixon is the typical example of somebody pardon'd without an indictment. Like it would be wise to imply it could happen because it has!

There are a other trivial examples. Confederate solders weren't indicted [1]. The Vietnam draft dodging pardons didn't even name people [2] [3].

Why they would do it? I mean to nullify the 5th amendment right. Maybe you want to prosecute a crime boss so you give somebody a pardon (or immunity) so they can't/don't plead the 5th and have to testify against them.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pardons_for_ex-Confederates#An...

[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Draft_evasion#Pardons

[3]: https://www.nytimes.com/1977/01/22/archives/texts-of-documen...

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#160

Post by JeremyNT »

neilv wrote: post #28

> "This is obvious political retribution by the outgoing administration against Polymarket for providing a market that correctly called the 2024 presidential election," a Polymarket spokesperson tells Axios. When I saw that statement, from a company spokesperson, it was striking. Is it now respectable and advisable for a corporation to make official statements like this?

If they can curry favor with the incoming (extremely crypto friendly) administration, their problems with the FBI go away.

This kind of conspiratorial thinking dominates the Republican party and such a story would play well with the base. There is a clear motive for this approach - and it seems likely to work.

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