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TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

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Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#481

Post by jsheard »

archerx wrote: post #448
jsheard wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can pay $0 for those models because a company paid $lots to train them and then released them for free. Those models aren't going away now of course, but lets not pretend that being able to download the product of millions of dollars worth of training completely free of charge is sustainable for future developments. Especially when most of the companies releasing these open models are wildly unprofitable and will…

You’re acting as if computing power isn’t going to get better. With time training the models will get faster. Let me use CG rendering as an example. Back in the day only the big companies could afford to do photoreal 3D rendering because only they had access to the compute and even then it would take days to render a frame. Eventually people could do these renders at home with consumer hardware but it still took fore…

The flipside to that metaphor is that high-end CG productions never stopped growing in scope to fill bigger and better hardware - yes you can easily render CG from back in the day on a shoestring budget now, but rendering Avatar 2 a couple of years ago still required a cluster with tens of thousands of CPU cores. Unless there's a plateau in the amount of compute you can usefully pour into training a model, those with big money to spend are always going to be several steps ahead of what us mere mortals can do.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#482

Post by iphoneisbetter »

jsheard wrote: post #191
iphoneisbetter wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or maybe, just maybe, TSMC has gaslit all of us to think it is much harder than it really is. If Taiwan isn't needed for its chips, what is the strategic interest of the USG?

It's not like nobody is trying to compete with TSMC, Samsung and Intel are doing their best, but TSMC are consistently ahead despite all of these companies using the same ASML lithography machines.

Good point. However my mind is drawn back to the fact that the USG licenses the patents to ASML. A tweak or change of that licensing model could suddenly make TSMC's cost basis rise and Intel's drop. We are after all talking about US national security interests as the backdrop - the usual market rules may not apply so cleanly.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#483

Post by KoolKat23 »

dathinab wrote: post #81
JanSt wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Using Claude 3.5 Sonnet in Cursor Composer already shows huge benefits for coding. I'm more productive than ever before. The models are still getting better and better. I'm not saying AGI is right around the corner or that we will reach it, but the benefits are undeniable. o1 added test-time compute. No need to be snarky.

idk. about Claude 3.5 but if you remove implicit subventions from the AI/AGI hype then for many such tools the cost to benefit calculation of creating and operating will become ... questionable furthermore the places where such tools tend to shine the most often places where the IT industry has somewhat failed, like unnecessary verbose and bothersome to use tools, missing tooling and troublesome code reuse (so you wr…

The scaling laws coming to mind. This concern becomes trivial as we scale. Its like worrying that your calculator app running on your phone could be more efficient when adding two numbers.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#484

Post by dang »

I've re-upped the original article here:

Behind OpenAI's plan to make A.I. flow like electricity - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41663562

Submitters: "Please submit the original source. If a post reports on something found on another site, submit the latter." - https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#485

Post by tetris11 »

petee wrote: post #474
tetris11 wrote: post #351

Earlier quoted context omitted.

that's curious, what was the alternative to the CD at the time?

Most cars had cassette players, many still had 8-tracks; vinyl or or tape at home. Not that they were great options, but there was alot of existing media available, and hardware was common, so an expensive bulky device to play fragile media at lower quality than vinyl, was how it was viewed by many initially. Edit: just checking, the Sony Walkman came out in 1979, CDs in 1982, but the Walkman dominated the 80s & 90s,…

Data cassette tapes look like they could have held up to max 600 MB[0], but CDs came out at out of the gate in 1980s with 650 MB.

I guess in terms of storage I can't quite grasp why he thought that CD wouldn't take on. (Hindsight 50/50, of course.)

0: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cassette_tape#Data_recording

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#486

Post by dbmikus »

erosivesoul wrote: post #471
thelastparadise wrote: post #431

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I (20+ years experience programmer) find it leads to a much higher quality output as I can now afford to do all the mundane, time-consuming housekeeping (refactors, more tests, making things testable). E.g. let's say I'm working on a production thing and features/bugfixes accumulate and some file in the codebase starts to resemble spaghetti. The LLM can help me unfuck that way faster and get to a state of very clean…

What LLM do you use? I've not gotten a lot of use out of Copilot, except for filling in generic algorithms or setting up boilerplate. Sometimes I use it for documentation but it often overlooks important details, or provides a description so generic as to be pointless. I've heard about Cursor but haven't tried it yet.

Cursor is much better than Copilot. Also, change it to use Claude, and then use the Inspector with ctrl-I

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#487

Post by asadotzler »

hiddencost wrote: post #148
wil421 wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just like robo-taxis are supposed to be driving us around or self driving cars. Not to mention the non-fiat currency everyone can easily use to buy goods nowadays.

Waymo is doing 100k paid driverless trips a week with significantly better safety than humans in matched conditions.

The easiest 100 thousand trips per week (look at the three cities) out of the US's 7.7 billion trips per week? How is that meaningful?

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#488

Post by eschaton »

airstrike wrote: post #362
bdndndndbve wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's substantial to say that AI is currently overhyped because it's hitting a weak spot in human cognition. We sympathize with inanimate objects. We see faces in random patterns. If a machine spits out some plausible looking text (or some cookie-cutter code copy-pasted from Stack Overflow) the human brain is basically hardwired to go "wow this is a human friend!". The current LLM trend seems designed to capit…

> If a machine spits out some plausible looking text (or some cookie-cutter code copy-pasted from Stack Overflow) This is not a reasonable take on the current capabilities of LLMs.

It’s certainly been my experience with the technology.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#489

Post by no_op »

consteval wrote: post #469
no_op wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Non-general AI won't cause mass unemployment, for the same reason previous productivity-enhancing tech hasn't. So long as humans can create valuable output machines can't, the new, higher-output economy will figure out how to employ them. Some won't even have to switch jobs, because demand for what they provide will be higher as AI tools bring down production costs. This is plausible for SWEs. Other people will end u…

> So long as humans can create valuable output machines can't Not all humans are going to be capable of this as time goes on. Those humans will be subjected to abject poverty. The reality is not everyone can possess a highly skilled knowledge job. Not everyone can go to college. What of them?

The irregularities of many real-world problems will keep even humans of low intelligence employable in non-AGI scenarios. Consider that even if you build a robot to perform 99% of the job of, say, a janitor, there's still that last 1%. The robot is going to encounter things that it can't figure out, but any human with an IQ north of 70 can.

Now, initially this still looks like it's going to reduce demand for janitors by 99%. So it's still going to cause mass unemployment, right? Except, it's going to substantially reduce the cost of janitorial services, so more will be purchased. Not just janitorial services, of course. We'll deploy such robots to do many things at higher intensity than we do today, and as well as many things that we don't do at all right now because they're not cost effective. So in equilibrium (again, the transition may be messy), with 99% automation we end up with an economy 100x the size, and about the same number of humans employed.

I know this sounds crazy, but it's the historical norm. Today's industrialized economies already have hundreds of times the output of pre-industrial economies, and yet humans mostly remain employed. At no point did we find that we didn't want any more stuff, actually, and decide to start cashing out productivity increases as lower employment rather than more output.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#490

Post by shriek »

KoolKat23 wrote: post #470
shriek wrote: post #399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of the time the entire apps are just a timer app or something simple. Never a complex app with tons of logic in them. And if you're having to write paragraphs of texts to write something complex then might as well just write that in a programming language, I mean isn't that what high-level programming language was built for? (heh). Also, you're not the only one who's had the thought that someone is vested in som…

You can write the high level structure yourself and let it complete the boilerplate code within the functions, where it's less critical/complicated. Can save you time.

Oh for sure. I use it as smart(ish) autocomplete to avoid typing everything out/looking up in docs everytime but the thought of prompt engineering to make an app is just bizarre to me. It almost feels like it has more friction than actually writing the damn thing yourself.
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