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TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

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Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#291

Post by ninetyninenine »

snowwrestler wrote: post #229
ninetyninenine wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If an AI can do my job, why would my employer fire me? Why wouldn’t they be excited to get 200% productivity out of me for the marginal cost of an AI seat license? They’d be excited at getting 100x of 100% output out an AI for 20 dollars a month and laying you off as redundant. If you aren’t scared of the potential of this technology you are lying to yourself.

Again: I’m only made redundant if there is no more work that my employer needs me to do. Why should I be scared of technology that makes me more productive?

Why would there be more work left for you to do if AI can do it in seconds?

Ai is trending towards a point where it makes your employers productive such that they don’t need you.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#293

Post by [deleted] »

bob1029 wrote: post #151

It is clear to me that Sam has never set foot inside of a semiconductor manufacturing facility. Or, if he did he definitely wasn't paying attention to what was going on around him. I don't know how you could witness these things and then make glib statements about building 36 of them. It will likely take well over a decade to recoup investment on any new chip fab at this point. Chasing ~4 customers on one narrow use…

[deleted]

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#294

Post by anon291 »

Jach wrote: post #138
rubyfan wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reminds me of autonomous vehicles a couple of years back. Or even AI a couple of years back, remember Watson? The hype cycle was faster to close that time.

IBM Watson was more than a couple years back. The Jeopardy event was in 2011. It's currently 2024. As for cars, I don't know what you're referring to specifically, and the hype is still ongoing as far as I can tell. It has taken 10+ years to get to present day, from the start of the "deep learning revolution" around 2010. I vaguely recall Uber promising self-driving pickups somewhere around 8-10 years ago. A main dif…

Yeah I have no idea what these people are talking about. The current gen of AI is qualitiatively different than previous attempts. For one, GPT et al are already useful without any kind of special prompting.

I'd also like to challenge people to actually consider how often humans are correct. In my experience, it's actually very rare to find a human that speaks factually correctly. Many professionals, including doctors (!), will happily and confidently deliver factually incorrect lies that sound correct. Even after obvious correction they will continue to spout them. Think how long it takes to correct basic myths that have established themselves in the culture. And we expect these models, which are just getting off the ground, to do better? The claim is they process information more similarly to how humans do. If that's true, then the fact they hallucinate is honestly a point in their favor. Because... in my experience, they hallucinate exactly the way I expect humans to.

Please try it, ask a few experts something and I guarantee you that further investigation into the topic will reveal that one or more of them are flat out incorrect.

Humans often simply ignore this and go based on what we believe to be correct. A lot of people do it silently. Those who don't are often labeled know-it-alls.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#295

Post by wongarsu »

HarHarVeryFunny wrote: post #201
brookst wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there any reason to believe costs won’t come down with scale and hardware iteration, just like they did for everything else? Short term pricing inefficiency is not relevant to long term impact.

Of course, but every token generated by a 100B model is going to take minimally 100B FLOPS, and if this is being used as an IDE typing assistant then there is going to be a lot of tokens being generated. If there is a common shift to using additional runtime compute to improve quality of output, such as OpenAI's GPT-o1, then FLOPs required goes up massively (OpenAI has said it takes exponential increase in FLOPS/cost…

Which is why the work to improve the results of small models is so important. Running a 3B or even 1B model as typing assistant and reserving the 100B model for refactoring is a lot more viable.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#296

Post by fulafel »

no_op wrote: post #164
dizzydes wrote: post #72

Three things that get me about current AI discourse: - The public focus on AGI is almost a distraction. By the time we get to AGI highly-specialised models will have taken jobs from huge swaths of the population, SWE and CS are already in play. - That AI will need to carry out every task a role does to replace it. I see this a lot on HN. What if SWEs get 50% more efficient and they fire half? That's still a gigantic…

Non-general AI won't cause mass unemployment, for the same reason previous productivity-enhancing tech hasn't. So long as humans can create valuable output machines can't, the new, higher-output economy will figure out how to employ them. Some won't even have to switch jobs, because demand for what they provide will be higher as AI tools bring down production costs. This is plausible for SWEs. Other people will end u…

We do have emplyoment problems arguably caused by tech, currently the bar of minimum viable productivity is higher than before in a lot of countries. In western welfare states there aren't jobs anymore for people who were doing groundskeeper ish things 50 years ago (apart from public sector subsidized employment programs).

We need to come up with ways of providing meaningful roles for the large percentage of people whose peg shape doesn't fit the median job hole.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#297

Post by gm3dmo »

JanSt wrote: post #16
bdndndndbve wrote: post #10

The current AI hype wave has really hit a nerd soft spot - that we're steps away from AGI. Surely if a computer can make plausible-looking but incorrect sentences we're days away from those sentences being factually accurate! The winter after this is gonna be harsh.

Using Claude 3.5 Sonnet in Cursor Composer already shows huge benefits for coding. I'm more productive than ever before. The models are still getting better and better. I'm not saying AGI is right around the corner or that we will reach it, but the benefits are undeniable. o1 added test-time compute. No need to be snarky.

I feel like these new tools have helped me get simple programming tasks done really quickly over the last 18 months. They seem like a faster, better and more accurate replacement for googling and Stackoverflow.

They seem very good at writing SQL for example. All the commas are in the right place and exactly the right amount of brackets square curly and round. But when they get it wrong, it really shows up the lack of intelligence. I hope the froth and bubble in the marketing of these tools matures into something with a little less hyperbole because they really are great just not intelligent.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#298

Post by anon291 »

aithrowawaycomm wrote: post #196
Jach wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IBM Watson was more than a couple years back. The Jeopardy event was in 2011. It's currently 2024. As for cars, I don't know what you're referring to specifically, and the hype is still ongoing as far as I can tell. It has taken 10+ years to get to present day, from the start of the "deep learning revolution" around 2010. I vaguely recall Uber promising self-driving pickups somewhere around 8-10 years ago. A main dif…

> Waymo alone services tens of thousands of autonomous rides per month (edit: see sibling comment, I was out of date, it's currently hundreds of thousands of rides per month -- but see, increasingly) But they aren't particularly autonomous, there's a fleet of humans watching the Waymos carefully and frequently intervening for the case where every 10-20 miles or so the system makes a stupid decision that needs human i…

> Which is in fact consistent with what self-driving skeptics were saying all the way back in 2010: deep learning could get you 95% of the way there but it will take many decades - probably centuries! - before we actually have real self-driving cars. The remote human operators will work for robotaxis and buses but not for Teslas.

If this is the end result, this is already a substantial business savings.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#299

Post by anon291 »

moron4hire wrote: post #134
DebtDeflation wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI (or more properly, ML) is all around us and creating value everywhere. This is true whether or not we EVER reach AGI. Honestly, I stop reading/listening whenever I read/hear mention of AGI.

Also causing lots of harm, too, e.g. police departments using AI systems that get the wrong suspect.

Ideally your court system does not permit AI testimony.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#300

Post by spamizbad »

TSMC shade aside, I think Altman is keenly aware that AI is still too capital intensive for short-to-medium term viability and I think his hope to was to probe the semiconductor industry's willingness to build-out more fabs to drive the costs down substantially. I suspect Altman was being bluntly honest with them about the economics of AI rather than enthusiastically telling them they should immediately build 37 fabs because surely that's super easy.

Blackwell cabinets are $3M each and have significant power requirements and thus you'd likely need to be selling your products at $100/month/seat to turn a slim profit.

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