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TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

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Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#221

Post by apsec112 »

aithrowawaycomm wrote: post #71
JanSt wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Using Claude 3.5 Sonnet in Cursor Composer already shows huge benefits for coding. I'm more productive than ever before. The models are still getting better and better. I'm not saying AGI is right around the corner or that we will reach it, but the benefits are undeniable. o1 added test-time compute. No need to be snarky.

OP could have been more substantive, but there is no contradiction between "current AI tools are sincerely useful" and "overinflated claims about the supposed intelligence of these tools will lead to an AI winter." I am quite confident both are true about LLMs. I use Scheme a lot, but the 1970s MIT AI folks' contention that LISPs encapsulate the core of human symbolic reasoning is clearly ridiculous to 2020s readers:…

What LLM abilities, if you saw them demonstrated, would cause you to change your mind?

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#222

Post by trashtester »

zackkatz wrote: post #97

[flagged]

The origin of the term "Asia" is from ancient Greece, and meant anything to the east of the Dardanelles Strait. The Romans used the term specifically for the province of western Anatolia.

To extend that term to include all those landmasses, including China, India and Japan is extremely Eurocentric.

I would consider "Far East" quite neutral by comparison.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#223

Post by H8crilA »

bob1029 wrote: post #151

It is clear to me that Sam has never set foot inside of a semiconductor manufacturing facility. Or, if he did he definitely wasn't paying attention to what was going on around him. I don't know how you could witness these things and then make glib statements about building 36 of them. It will likely take well over a decade to recoup investment on any new chip fab at this point. Chasing ~4 customers on one narrow use…

It is reasonable from his point of view - you guys sink the capital, I will have more compute. And if it doesn't work out and orders stop coming in then well that's not my problem, is it?

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#224

Post by surgical_fire »

renegade-otter wrote: post #107
JanSt wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Using Claude 3.5 Sonnet in Cursor Composer already shows huge benefits for coding. I'm more productive than ever before. The models are still getting better and better. I'm not saying AGI is right around the corner or that we will reach it, but the benefits are undeniable. o1 added test-time compute. No need to be snarky.

I have yet to watch people be THAT more productive using, say, Copilot. Outside of some annoying boilerplate that I did not have to write myself, I don't know what kind of code you are writing that makes it all so much easier. This gets worse if you are using less trendy languages. No offense, but I have only seen people who barely coded before describe being "very productive" with AI. And, sure, if you dabble, these…

I tried many times. Things that AI is good at:

- Generate boilerplate

- Generate extremely simple code patterns. You need a simple CRUD API? Yeah, it can do it.

- Generate solutions for established algorithms. Think of solutions for leetcode exercises.

So yeah, if that's your job as a developer, that was a massive productivity boost.

Playing with anything beyond that and I got varying degrees of failure. Some of which are productivity killers.

The worst is when I am trying to do something in a language/framework I am not familiar with, and AI generates plausibly sounding but horribly wrong bullshit. It sends me in some deadends that take me a while to figure out, and I would have been better just looking it up by myself.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#225

Post by lupusreal »

lucianbr wrote: post #167
ramraj07 wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Noam Chomsky and Doug Hofstader had the same opinion. Last I checked Doug has recanted his skepticism and is seriously afraid for the future of humanity. I’ll listen to him and my own gut than some random internet people still insisting this is all a nothing burger.

The thing is my gut is telling me this is a nothing burger, and I'll listen to my own gut before yours - a random internet person insisting this is going to change the world. So what exactly is the usefulness of this discussion? You think "I'll trust my gut" is a useful argument in a debate?

Trusting your gut isn't a useful debate tactic, but it is a useful tool for everybody to use personally. Different people will come to different conclusions, and that's fine. Finding a universal consensus about future predictions will never happen, it's an unrealistic goal. The point of the discussion isn't to create a consensus; it's useful because listening to people with other opinions can shed light on some blind spots all of us have, even if we're pretty sure the other guys are wrong about all or most of what they're saying.

FWIW my gut happens to agree with yours.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#226

Post by jonplackett »

dizzydes wrote: post #72

Three things that get me about current AI discourse: - The public focus on AGI is almost a distraction. By the time we get to AGI highly-specialised models will have taken jobs from huge swaths of the population, SWE and CS are already in play. - That AI will need to carry out every task a role does to replace it. I see this a lot on HN. What if SWEs get 50% more efficient and they fire half? That's still a gigantic…

When electricity got cheap - we use MORE electricity.

Think how many places you see shitty software currently.

My wife was just trying to use an app to book a test with the doctor - did not work at all. The staff said they know it doesn’t work. They still give out the app.

We are surrounded by awful software. There’s a lot of work to do- if it could be done cheaper. Currently only rich companies can make great software.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#227

Post by unnouinceput »

joelthelion wrote: post #4

7 trillion is absurd. The recent advancements in AI are real, but not on the order of 7T.

I remember the story about Larry and Sergei pitching their new search engine to investors: "Will make 10B annually in maximum 10 years". Nowadays 10B is the paper clips fund at Alphabet.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#228

Post by tempodox »

Altman is used to deal with people whose medium is mostly hot air. I'd expect a chip manufacturer to have a healthy allergy against that. Having your process filled with 99% bullshit might be good enough if the desired outcome is investment, but if you want to produce functional hardware, you can't afford that.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#229

Post by snowwrestler »

ninetyninenine wrote: post #216
snowwrestler wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If an AI can do my job, why would my employer fire me? Why wouldn’t they be excited to get 200% productivity out of me for the marginal cost of an AI seat license? A lot of the predictions of job loss are predicated on an unspoken assumption that we’re sitting at “task maximum” so any increase in productivity must result in job loss. It’s only true if there is no more work to be done. But no one seems to be willing o…

> If an AI can do my job, why would my employer fire me? Why wouldn’t they be excited to get 200% productivity out of me for the marginal cost of an AI seat license? They’d be excited at getting 100x of 100% output out an AI for 20 dollars a month and laying you off as redundant. If you aren’t scared of the potential of this technology you are lying to yourself.

Again: I’m only made redundant if there is no more work that my employer needs me to do.

Why should I be scared of technology that makes me more productive?

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#230

Post by jsemrau »

jsheard wrote: post #20
JanSt wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Using Claude 3.5 Sonnet in Cursor Composer already shows huge benefits for coding. I'm more productive than ever before. The models are still getting better and better. I'm not saying AGI is right around the corner or that we will reach it, but the benefits are undeniable. o1 added test-time compute. No need to be snarky.

There's no accounting for taste, but keep in mind that all of these services are currently losing money, so how much would you actually be willing to pay for the service you're currently getting in order to let it break even? There was a report that Microsoft is losing $20 for every $10 spent on Copilot subscriptions, with heavy users costing them as much as $80 per month. Assuming you're one of those heavy users, wo…

Just a thought exercise. If we would have an AI with the intellectual capabilities of a Ph.D holding professor in a hard science. How much would it be worth for you to have access to that AI?

100,000 ? 500,000 ?

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