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Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

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Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#301

Post by mmaunder »

Imnimo wrote: post #7

It is hard for me to square "This company is a few short years away from building world-changing AGI" and "I'm stepping away to do my own thing". Maybe I'm just bad at putting myself in someone else's shoes, but I feel like if I had spent years working towards a vision of AGI, and thought that success was finally just around the corner, it'd be very difficult to walk away.

I think they have an innovation problem. There are a few signals wrt the o1 release that indicate this. Not really a new model but an old model with CoT. And the missing system prompt - because they're using it internally now. Also seeing 500 errors from their REST endpoints intermittently.

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#302

Post by 015a »

svara wrote: post #222
shmatt wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like this is stating the obvious - but i guess not to many - but a probabilistic syllable generator is not intelligence, it does not understand us, it cannot reason, it can only generate the next syllable It makes us feel understood in the same ways John Edward used to in daytime tv, its all about how language makes us feel true AGI...unfortunately we're not even close

I truly think you haven't really thought this through. There's a huge amount of circuitry between the input and the output of the model. How do you know what it does or doesn't do? Humans brains "just" output the next couple milliseconds of muscle activation, given sensory input and internal state. Edit: Interestingly, this is getting downvotes even though 1) my last sentence is a precise and accurate statement of th…

Did you seriously just use the word "isomorphic"? No wonder people believe AI is the next crypto.

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#303

Post by comp_throw7 »

baxtr wrote: post #290
reducesuffering wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With multiple correct predictions, do you think the rest of HN will start to listen to Gwern’s beliefs about OpenAI / AGI problems? Probably not.

I’m not aware of those beliefs. Could you provide a link to an article/ comment?

This is somewhat high context, but as a random example: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jtoPawEhLNXNxvgTT/bing-chat-...

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#304

Post by 015a »

dartos wrote: post #91
tomrod wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My take is that Altman recognizes LLM winter is coming and is trying to entrench.

I don’t think we’re gonna see a winter. LLMs are here to stay. Natural language interfaces are great. Embeddings are incredibly useful. They just won’t be the hottest thing since smartphones.

You just described what literally anyone who says "AI Winter" means; the technology doesn't go away, companies still deploy it and evolve it, customers still pay for it, it just stops being so attractive to massive funding and we see fewer foundational breakthroughs.

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#305

Post by Aeolun »

vasco wrote: post #166
startupsfail wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Greg Brockman, OpenAI President and co-founder is also on extended leave of absence. And John Schulman, and Peter Deng are out already. Yet the company is still shipping, like no other. Recent multimodal integrations and benchmarks of o1 are outstanding.

> Yet the company is still shipping, like no other If executives / high level architects / researchers are working on this quarter's features something is very wrong. The higher you get the more ahead you need to be working, C-level departures should only have an impact about a year down the line, at a company of this size.

You may find that this is true in many companies.

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#306

Post by vl »

Imnimo wrote: post #7

It is hard for me to square "This company is a few short years away from building world-changing AGI" and "I'm stepping away to do my own thing". Maybe I'm just bad at putting myself in someone else's shoes, but I feel like if I had spent years working towards a vision of AGI, and thought that success was finally just around the corner, it'd be very difficult to walk away.

But also most likely she is already fully vested. Why stay and work 60 hours a week in such case?

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#307

Post by 015a »

HeatrayEnjoyer wrote: post #221
iLoveOncall wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People still believe that a company that has only delivered GenAI models is anywhere close to AGI? Success in not around any corner. It's pure insanity to even believe that AGI is possible, let alone close.

What can you confidently say AI will not be able to do in 2029? What task can you declare, without hesitation, will not be possible for automatic hardware to accomplish?

Discover new physics.

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#308

Post by squarefoot »

015a wrote: post #294
jsheard wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It is hard for me to square "This company is a few short years away from building world-changing AGI" Altmans quote was that "it's possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days", which sounds a lot more optimistic on the surface than it actually is. A few thousand days could be interpreted as 10 years or more, and by adding the "possibly" qualifier he didn't even really commit to that predicti…

Because as we all know: Full Self Driving is just six months away.

Thanks, now I cannot unthink of this vision: developers activate the first ASI, and after 3 minutes it spits out full code and plans for a working Full Self Driving car prototype:)

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#309

Post by Aeolun »

pama wrote: post #285
ac29 wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the company is still shipping, like no other Meta, Anthropic, Google, and others all are shipping state of the art models. I'm not trying to be dismissive of OpenAI's work, but they are absolutely not the only company shipping very large foundation models.

Perhaps you havent tried o1-preview or advanced voice if you call all the rest SOTA.

If only they’d release the advanced voice thing as an API. Their TTS is already pretty good, but ai wouldn’t say no to an improvement.

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#310

Post by discordance »

jjulius wrote: post #173
deepGem wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is it so hard to just accept this and be transparent about motives ? It's fair to say 'we were not aligned with Sam, we tried an ouster, didn't pan out so the best thing for us to do is to leave and let Sam pursue his path", which the entirely company has vouched for. Instead, you get to see grey area after grey area.

Because, for some weird reason, our culture has collectively decided that, even if most of us are capable of reading between the lines to understand what's really being said or is happening, it's often wrong and bad to be honest and transparent, and we should put the most positive spin possible on it. It's everywhere, especially in professional and political environments.

For a counter example of what open and transparent communincation from a C-level tech person could look like, have a read of what the SpaCy founder blogged about a few months ago:

https://honnibal.dev/blog/back-to-our-roots

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