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How did divers manage to blow up the Nord Stream pipeline?

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Re: How did divers manage to blow up the Nord Stream pipeline?

#71
post #51

It was enlightening to read/watch the realtime assessments of the sabotage from US leadership. The original storyline from American leadership was that Russia did it. That this story got any legs was an insult to the intelligence of any thinking person. The pipeline was a major revenue source for Russia, and probably a major reason why Germany was slow to back Ukraine. Eventually leadership realized that this was a t…

We were consuming different media at the time. I do not recall anyone serious making definitive statements about the perpetrators. Too many groups had the motive and opportunity to execute the plan. Given the small crew size required, it would not have even required national backing to execute. A professional diving crew would possess all the required equipment without additional funding.

I do not recall anyone serious making definitive statements about the perpetrators.

This might be narrowly literally true, but - especially in the context that apparently the CIA was aware of the Ukrainian plot to carry out the attack before it occurred - former CIA director Clapper saying "Russia is certainly the most likely suspect" or Biden's statement “Let me say this, it was a deliberate act of sabotage and now the Russians are pumping out disinformation and lies”

And the anonymous "officials familiar with the latest intelligence" informed CNN [If Russia did deliberately cause the explosions] that Moscow would likely view such a step as worth the price if it helped raise the costs of supporting Ukraine for Europe. US and western intelligence officials believe Putin is gambling that as electricity costs rise and winter approaches, European publics could turn against the Western strategy of isolating Russia economically. Sabotaging the pipelines could “show what Russia is capable of,” one US official previously told CNN.

And national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Friday that the US does not believe any NATO ally is behind the leaks.

etc ... I think it's fair to say this at least vaguely pointed finger at Russia communicated to the public an impression which US leadership knew to be false.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/28/politics/nord-stream-pipe...

Re: How did divers manage to blow up the Nord Stream pipeline?

#72
post #42
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where does the 500kg figure come from? I don’t see it in the article. I’m also surprised about the 220lb figure mentioned in the article. Assuming a steel twinset, and 4 extra cylinders, we barely get to 60-70kg. Where do the remaining 30-40kg come from?

It was an estimation made up early in the coverage by experts when they didn't even know what kind of explosives were used (it's Octogen).

Is that 500kg mass or negative buoyancy? Because 500kg of octogen (density of 1.91g/cm³) which thus would take up 261800cm³. An item of that volume and mass would only be 230kg negatively buoyant in sea water.

Still very heavy, but basically neutral with 2 large lift bags (you can easily find 150kg pyramid lift bags for about 1-200€ each).

Re: How did divers manage to blow up the Nord Stream pipeline?

#73
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It also of course claims > In the wake of the attack, which took out three of the four conduits forming the pipelines, energy prices surged. which is trivially disprovable, not least because the pipelines were not transporting any gas and hadn't for a while . They are too busy writing fiction they don't bother to verify even the most basic things.

> which is trivially disprovable, not least because the pipelines were not transporting any gas and hadn't for a while. This doesn't disprove anything. Energy prices could still have surged for multiple reasons, e.g. because countries might have worried about similar attacks on other, active pipelines and might have become more eager to boost their reserves. We'd have to look at some actual stats, but even then it mi…

I don't understand; I looked at the actual stats. It's clear you didn't. There was no surge.

Re: How did divers manage to blow up the Nord Stream pipeline?

#74
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> which is trivially disprovable, not least because the pipelines were not transporting any gas and hadn't for a while. This doesn't disprove anything. Energy prices could still have surged for multiple reasons, e.g. because countries might have worried about similar attacks on other, active pipelines and might have become more eager to boost their reserves. We'd have to look at some actual stats, but even then it mi…

I don't understand; I looked at the actual stats. It's clear you didn't. There was no surge.

Can you publish the "stats" here?

Re: How did divers manage to blow up the Nord Stream pipeline?

#75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Worth the risk. That's like a single bomb.

I still don't understand why Denmark and Sweden said they believed that “several hundred kilograms” of explosives were used. It's bizzare.

What makes you think that’s bizarre? Presumably one could calculate this from seismic data of the blast, after accounting for the fact that there was still gas in the pipeline despite it not being in use.

Re: How did divers manage to blow up the Nord Stream pipeline?

#76
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess the ARD take is intentionally more on the side of infotainment. There's also this WSJ article from a few days ago which purports to know some very specific facts and even to have quotes from participants of the operation: https://archive.ph/Ka8HB

It also of course claims > In the wake of the attack, which took out three of the four conduits forming the pipelines, energy prices surged. which is trivially disprovable, not least because the pipelines were not transporting any gas and hadn't for a while . They are too busy writing fiction they don't bother to verify even the most basic things.

> not transporting any gas and hadn't for a while

yeah, "a while" = 1 month. https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/31/business/nord-stream-1-eu... "the most basic" aka cnn

Re: How did divers manage to blow up the Nord Stream pipeline?

#77
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> which is trivially disprovable, not least because the pipelines were not transporting any gas and hadn't for a while. This doesn't disprove anything. Energy prices could still have surged for multiple reasons, e.g. because countries might have worried about similar attacks on other, active pipelines and might have become more eager to boost their reserves. We'd have to look at some actual stats, but even then it mi…

I don't understand; I looked at the actual stats. It's clear you didn't. There was no surge.

This seems to show an (ongoing) increase of some energy prices in Germany after Sep 22:

https://media.aroundhome.de/image/upload/f_auto/q_auto/w_800...

I mean, the sentence in the article is very vague. "Energy prices surged". Which energy? How soon? For how long? Where? For which buyers (private or public)? It could mean a lot of things, so I'll grant this one line of journalism isn't great. Journalism isn't easy, though. I have no opinion on the WSJ in particular as I don't really know it, but if you dismiss everything that has a few sloppy lines in it, you might not necessarily end up with the best sum of information.

Re: How did divers manage to blow up the Nord Stream pipeline?

#78
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> which is trivially disprovable, not least because the pipelines were not transporting any gas and hadn't for a while. This doesn't disprove anything. Energy prices could still have surged for multiple reasons, e.g. because countries might have worried about similar attacks on other, active pipelines and might have become more eager to boost their reserves. We'd have to look at some actual stats, but even then it mi…

I don't understand; I looked at the actual stats. It's clear you didn't. There was no surge.

You can be right about the stats but still wrong with your reasoning. Markets are often impacted by all kinds of events.

Re: How did divers manage to blow up the Nord Stream pipeline?

#79
post #74
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand; I looked at the actual stats. It's clear you didn't. There was no surge.

Can you publish the "stats" here?

Marked for your convenience:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GVCwMmbXsAAaaZM?format=jpg&name=...

Look, blowing up Nord Stream made natural gas cheaper!

Re: How did divers manage to blow up the Nord Stream pipeline?

#80
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand; I looked at the actual stats. It's clear you didn't. There was no surge.

This seems to show an (ongoing) increase of some energy prices in Germany after Sep 22: https://media.aroundhome.de/image/upload/f_auto/q_auto/w_800... I mean, the sentence in the article is very vague. "Energy prices surged". Which energy? How soon? For how long? Where? For which buyers (private or public)? It could mean a lot of things, so I'll grant this one line of journalism isn't great. Journalism isn't easy, t…

This is a few pixels on a consumer price index. Which energy - do you want to make a guess? What is a surge to you?
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