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Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

washingtonpost.com

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Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#81

Post by maxglute »

godelmachine wrote: post #74
maxglute wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes PRC knew, hence TW nuclearizing is non starter. TW/ROC was/is still thoroughly infiltrated by PRC intelligence, if there's credible hint they're moving from nuclear latency/threshold to actual nuclearization (PRC redline), the relevant facilities would be destroyed - no need for PLA boots on ground or telescoped build up, every inch of TW is within 10 minute strike of mainland based ordnances. TW nuclear turnkey…

I totally disagree with the last paragraph. Shedding blood != waging war. China has never dared until now, and will never dare in the future, to engage in a heads-on conflict against the USA. It has skirmishes and conflicts with almost every neighbour. The PRC defence forces do not have the worldwide fighting experience which the US has. Nuclear deterrence acts strongly against the PRC, and they won’t do anything stu…

PRC fought US+UN (Nato typo) in full scale war in 50s, to stalemate, while PLA was dramatically inferior vs gap now, and when PRC didn't have nukes, while US did. So not only did they dare to fight US on much worse odds, they did so not deterred by nukes, which US planners mused about using. Shedding blood with several nuclear powers isn't nothing, there's simply no country more willing to challenge other nuclear powers / be less deterred by nukes than PRC on security issues.

IMO US global war experience doesn't amount to much relevant in peer war, in peers backyard, against peer whos spend last 20 years soley fixated on countering US. IMO most don't realize how meagre current USN (and general US posture) is in IndoPac relative to current PRC size and what PRC has in threatre (everything), and how extra meagre 7th fleet in indopac is, CVN76 (carrier group) + desron15 (destroyer squadron) is like 10-20 ships depending on deployment. Last few years PRC coast guard messing around in Senkakus, dozens of incidents every year that should on paper trigger US defense obligation, but nothing from US. USN hasn't been credible deterrent for a while. US not sending carriers through TW straight for years, current US planning has carriers operate out of PRC backyard during shooting war to hopefully figure out way to do standoff strikes. Assuming they're not sunk before that. Or assuming they can operate more than a few days since PRC missiles can hit most replenishment sites/fleets. For reference invading 90s Iraq took 5 carriers group + regional basing + french selling out Iraqi air defense. Eisenhower carrier / CVN69+DDGs aren't exactly defeating houthis right now. Current PRC is like 80x larger than Iraq then by population, 100x larger by gdp, and 100x+ more industrial output. Current one year PRC ship building is outputting cumulative US 5 year WW2 which is proxy indicator for other domains (like munitions). USN formidable against PLA 10-15 years ago, but that's also how long PRC took to close gap which they are likely to extend.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#82

Post by worstspotgain »

tivert wrote: post #77
worstspotgain wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Obviously China would utterly dominate the super-national authority due to proportional representation. The point is to move towards unification while Taiwan remains a sovereign country in the interim. Taiwan becomes more of a part of China over time, while hopefully China's politics become more like Taiwan's.

> ...while hopefully China's politics become more like Taiwan's. That's an utter fantasy, especially by the mechanism you propose. To be absolutely blunt: your proposal strikes me as the kind of thing a no-nothing outsider would propose, someone who has no skin in the game and would suffer none of the consequences, and whose ignorance makes a solution seem easy. I mean, FFS, (assuming your an American) would you prop…

Uh, no. As I said up top, I didn't come up with the idea:

   In the 2000 presidential election, independent candidate James Soon
   proposed a European Union-style relation with mainland China (this
   was echoed by Hsu Hsin-liang in 2004) along with a non-aggression pact.
   In the 2004 presidential election, Lien Chan proposed a
   confederation-style relationship. [1]
It seems to me that maybe your dismissal of the CCP making concessions towards unification in general fits the notion of a "know-nothing outsider" much more than what I wrote. Both China and Taiwan have long held that there is only "One China" and that they eventually belong together.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_unification

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#83

Post by CorrectHorseBat »

mensetmanusman wrote: post #54
keepamovin wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

We wouldn’t get involved if tsmc hadn’t taken over the world.

I believe it's more the other way around. Taiwan purposely made themselves an essential part of global trade to keep the USA invested in their security.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#84

Post by kkfx »

hartator wrote: post #33
zarzavat wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This has always been true though. Consider, if the US is a friend worth depending on why do its closest allies UK, Israel and France still maintain nuclear weapons at great expense? In Europe the fact that the US dragged its feet entering WWII is still within living memory. Asian countries perhaps are still to learn this lesson.

Europe dragged their feet in both ww as well. No one wants war.

Actually UK (where a civil war seems just started) ruling class desperate need a war to remain in power, USA are in a far better position, but their ruling class still need a war to avoid a civil one. Israel ruling class desperately need to keep the war up or they'll go to jail so... At least three powers desperately look for war.

Of course, the people do not want wars, but so far most people in the world have forgot the old way of unite to makes rulers obey so they obey instead.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#85

Post by kkfx »

Just to clear some facts:

- China (Popular Republic of) have NO NEED to invade Taiwan (or Republic of China, that's what they call themselves) because an aero-maritime blockade would suffice to starve Taiwan to death;

- they do not do so simply because they want Taiwan semiconductor industry, witch is still ahead of their own domestic one, otherwise Taiwan is damn easy to erase;

- being a small HYPER-dense island Taiwan can't be ready for a war at all, there is no measure they can act to stop an invasion, they can only deter it stating "if someone invade we blown up our factories, the sole reason for anyone to invade, because or we rule ourselves or we die".

I'm not sure in this last case how many people will comply anyway, since while they hate each others they do call themselves Chinese on both sides and they are not democracy on both sides. For some from Taiwan living in Shenzen makes no difference in quality of life, OR it's even better in Shenzen than in Taipei.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#86

Post by refurb »

nashashmi wrote: post #59
refurb wrote: post #52

This seems like the kind of article that US intelligence agencies would seed in the media. Prep the voters for mass support of Taiwan from the US.

Dont leave us hanging. Give us the details why you think so. I haven’t read the article yet.

"In a 17-minute trailer released last week, the public responds"

It begs the question why it was written.

What's new? Not much and that's apparent based on regurgitating information we already know.

According to the author, it's a trailer for a drama being released next year.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#87

Post by [deleted] »

worstspotgain wrote: post #41
pyuser583 wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How does an “EU” style arrangement make sense between two countries, one of which is extremely large the other extremely small?

It makes sense because it functions as a bridge to eventual reunification. And the EU includes e.g. Luxembourg and Germany. The arrangement transfers some matters to unified control while retaining country sovereignty.

[deleted]

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#88

Post by [deleted] »

worstspotgain wrote: post #49
CoastalCoder wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The key to peace is the general understanding that the two countries will be reunited at some unspecified future point. One side surrendering usually is a key to peace. But realistically, can you imagine the CCP submitting to the will of Taiwanese voters?

IMO, Taiwan has proven that democracy can eventually work in China too. The question is: how do they get there? And more importantly: why are we antagonizing and warmongering instead of taking actions that further that goal?

[deleted]

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#89

Post by [deleted] »

worstspotgain wrote: post #40
pyuser583 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan is a legit democracy. Elections. Rule of law. Freedom. PRC is not. I suppose Taiwan could be a “special administrative region.” But that doesn’t offer many guarantees, does it?

What's the endgame with China? No one wants Global Thermonuclear War. A renewed Cold War is only possible if China is in Russia's camp. This is not really in China's interest any more than it is in ours. It's only in Russia's interest. The only good endgame is "China becomes a normal nation." This was the premise for granting it MNF trading status in the 90s. It included the notion that democracy would rub off automa…

[deleted]

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#90

Post by Caius-Cosades »

Reading between the lines it seems to me that Taiwanese political leadership may have forgotten to ask themselves this rather simple question;

What, exactly, would the average taiwanese benefit from risking their lives in behest of the political leadership?

You don't get second chances in life. You don't get a new body after you've been mangled. Or starved to death, as would be the likely scenario in a armed confrontation between China and Taiwan. Politicians would be fine as usual in their ivory towers.

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