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Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

washingtonpost.com

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Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#41

Post by worstspotgain »

pyuser583 wrote: post #32
worstspotgain wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan has obviously been watching the Hong Kong integration closely. Had it gone much better, Taiwan would have probably agreed to something similar. Frankly I think they were actually expecting much worse. An EU-style arrangement seems ideal in the medium term. It lets Taiwan have a positive long-term influence on Chinese politics, while preventing HK-style crackdowns in the other direction.

How does an “EU” style arrangement make sense between two countries, one of which is extremely large the other extremely small?

It makes sense because it functions as a bridge to eventual reunification. And the EU includes e.g. Luxembourg and Germany. The arrangement transfers some matters to unified control while retaining country sovereignty.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#42

Post by CoastalCoder »

worstspotgain wrote: post #17

If there ever was a major conflict with a diplomatic alternative, this is it. China's attitude towards Taiwan is mostly petty and dates back to the drunken bar fight with Chiang Kai-shek, who's been dead for 50 years. The key to peace is the general understanding that the two countries will be reunited at some unspecified future point. Historically, this has been the keystone that let the doves carry the day. In the…

> The key to peace is the general understanding that the two countries will be reunited at some unspecified future point.

One side surrendering usually is a key to peace.

But realistically, can you imagine the CCP submitting to the will of Taiwanese voters?

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#43

Post by SllX »

skhunted wrote: post #34
keepamovin wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

We have thousands of years of examples of two “blood kin” groups attacking each other. In addition to this is the fact that not all peoples with roots in present day PRC are Chinese. Tibet is a region of PRC that is not Chinese, for example.

Party leadership is Han Chinese and everyone else is a subject of the Party-owned and operated State within PRC jurisdiction.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#44

Post by bobthepanda »

teractiveodular wrote: post #24
dmix wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If anyone should get one it's SK given NK is basically a lost cause but that's probably an even more volatile gambit than Taiwan

NK is not stupid enough to launch a land war on SK, they know they'd get their asses handed to them. This is unfortunately not necessarily true for PRC vs Taiwan.

North Korea also probably wouldn’t nuke Seoul because it is 40km from the border and so they’d also probably not be doing themselves any favors. They’d probably nuke Tokyo or Okinawa though.

I don’t think that PRC would nuke Taiwan mostly because nuking does not mean they’ve actually secured it, and now they have to deal with the pain of a beach invasion into irradiated territory.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#45

Post by worstspotgain »

skhunted wrote: post #38
mdorazio wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The obvious counterpoint to this argument is what happened in Hong Kong. A diplomatic resolution seems unlikely to have a net-positive outcome for Taiwan under the current CCP regime.

I do not understand Xi’s abandonment of Deng’s wise policies. The One China, Two Systems approach was working and had it gone well may have induced Taiwan to similarly integrate with the PRC. Now, I doubt that will ever happen.

Can't say I understand it either, but I'm not Chinese and I think there are some cultural differences here. Politically, I think there's a tendency to overestimate and overreact (e.g. Tiananmen Square) and a tendency to get irritated easily. Again, fertile ground for diplomacy.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#46

Post by bpodgursky »

Mountain_Skies wrote: post #6
bbor wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair “defending two sovereign states from invasion” isn’t really war mongering. No comments on Lebanon tho… fingers crossed the bluster dies out before more innocents are killed. Not looking good.

Morally right or not, even the US and allies have a limit to how many military resources exist and at what rate they can produce more. Fighting on three fronts at the same time, especially when one of them involves a country that supplies much of your industrial capacity, just isn't viable.

This is true, but there's an objectively worse middle ground (that we're in now) where the US deterrent lacks credibility so random semi-functional states are starting shit and the US drains capacity by half-heartedly responding to them (aka Houthis, Russia, Hamas, etc).

If there was a firm belief "The US will respond in force to aggression" it would prevent the attempts, and the US would stop wasting ordinance responding in a halfassed way.

Alternately, the US could just do nothing outside of the 1-2 regions it cares about (ie, the pacific). But the current status isn't great.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#47

Post by bobthepanda »

worstspotgain wrote: post #41
pyuser583 wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How does an “EU” style arrangement make sense between two countries, one of which is extremely large the other extremely small?

It makes sense because it functions as a bridge to eventual reunification. And the EU includes e.g. Luxembourg and Germany. The arrangement transfers some matters to unified control while retaining country sovereignty.

The thing is that in EU they are two of 27.

Being 1 of 4 is not so good, particularly when 1 is so big and the other two (Macau, HK) are defanged, and a federal devolution to the provinces of China is not in the cards.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#48

Post by nashashmi »

antognini wrote: post #37
godelmachine wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good point. Probably the Americans have dissuaded them from building a nuclear warhead in exchange for guaranteed protection?

The US has pointedly never guaranteed protection for Taiwan. Its policy has been "strategic ambiguity."

“Guarantee” has always meant ambiguity. The other word is promise. Or commitment.

Ukraine gave up its nukes to the russians after the fall of the soviets in exchange for such “guarantee”.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#49

Post by worstspotgain »

CoastalCoder wrote: post #42
worstspotgain wrote: post #17

If there ever was a major conflict with a diplomatic alternative, this is it. China's attitude towards Taiwan is mostly petty and dates back to the drunken bar fight with Chiang Kai-shek, who's been dead for 50 years. The key to peace is the general understanding that the two countries will be reunited at some unspecified future point. Historically, this has been the keystone that let the doves carry the day. In the…

> The key to peace is the general understanding that the two countries will be reunited at some unspecified future point. One side surrendering usually is a key to peace. But realistically, can you imagine the CCP submitting to the will of Taiwanese voters?

IMO, Taiwan has proven that democracy can eventually work in China too. The question is: how do they get there? And more importantly: why are we antagonizing and warmongering instead of taking actions that further that goal?

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#50

Post by nashashmi »

Waterluvian wrote: post #16
godelmachine wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good point. Probably the Americans have dissuaded them from building a nuclear warhead in exchange for guaranteed protection?

Which makes it critically important to see through to the end that Ukraine wins. Otherwise South Korea, Taiwan, and others would be right in recognizing that a nuclear arsenal is the better option.

There is no end to the war in which Ukraine wins. If Ukraine is winning and Russia gives up, America will be worried and find a way to keep the war going. If Russia wins while Ukrainians are still alive, America will be filled with regret that they did not support Ukraine well enough.

Ukraine is like Afghanistan 2.0 ; the imminent fall/break of Russia.

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