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Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

washingtonpost.com

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Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#21

Post by wahern »

__turbobrew__ wrote: post #10

Im kind of surprised that Taiwan has never pursued a nuclear arsenal. They have the resources and technology to do so. A few nukes is going to be more of a deterrent than any number of reservists. The past few decades has shown that the greater powers of the world have no problem squashing you — unless you possess nuclear weapons.

Taiwan did have secret nuclear weapons program in the 70s or 80s, with cover from their nascent nuclear power facilities. When the US caught wind they forced Taiwan to shut the program down. I'm not sure if China knew about it at the time, but I imagine these days it would be impossible to keep it secret from China--too many spies.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#23

Post by mdorazio »

worstspotgain wrote: post #17

If there ever was a major conflict with a diplomatic alternative, this is it. China's attitude towards Taiwan is mostly petty and dates back to the drunken bar fight with Chiang Kai-shek, who's been dead for 50 years. The key to peace is the general understanding that the two countries will be reunited at some unspecified future point. Historically, this has been the keystone that let the doves carry the day. In the…

The obvious counterpoint to this argument is what happened in Hong Kong. A diplomatic resolution seems unlikely to have a net-positive outcome for Taiwan under the current CCP regime.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#24

Post by teractiveodular »

dmix wrote: post #14
__turbobrew__ wrote: post #10

Im kind of surprised that Taiwan has never pursued a nuclear arsenal. They have the resources and technology to do so. A few nukes is going to be more of a deterrent than any number of reservists. The past few decades has shown that the greater powers of the world have no problem squashing you — unless you possess nuclear weapons.

If anyone should get one it's SK given NK is basically a lost cause but that's probably an even more volatile gambit than Taiwan

NK is not stupid enough to launch a land war on SK, they know they'd get their asses handed to them. This is unfortunately not necessarily true for PRC vs Taiwan.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#25

Post by worstspotgain »

mdorazio wrote: post #23
worstspotgain wrote: post #17

If there ever was a major conflict with a diplomatic alternative, this is it. China's attitude towards Taiwan is mostly petty and dates back to the drunken bar fight with Chiang Kai-shek, who's been dead for 50 years. The key to peace is the general understanding that the two countries will be reunited at some unspecified future point. Historically, this has been the keystone that let the doves carry the day. In the…

The obvious counterpoint to this argument is what happened in Hong Kong. A diplomatic resolution seems unlikely to have a net-positive outcome for Taiwan under the current CCP regime.

Taiwan has obviously been watching the Hong Kong integration closely. Had it gone much better, Taiwan would have probably agreed to something similar. Frankly I think they were actually expecting much worse.

An EU-style arrangement seems ideal in the medium term. It lets Taiwan have a positive long-term influence on Chinese politics, while preventing HK-style crackdowns in the other direction.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#26

Post by ethbr1 »

whoevercares wrote: post #15
__turbobrew__ wrote: post #10

Im kind of surprised that Taiwan has never pursued a nuclear arsenal. They have the resources and technology to do so. A few nukes is going to be more of a deterrent than any number of reservists. The past few decades has shown that the greater powers of the world have no problem squashing you — unless you possess nuclear weapons.

Would Taiwan have time to “pursue”? CCP will see this as deal breaker and with the level of spy infiltration Taiwan can’t keep this a secret. Edit: USA will see this as a huge red flag as well. Remember USA only want to deter but not a real war

The US could also secretly transport tactical nuclear weapons to Taiwanese airbases, then announce that Taiwan was now protected under a similar nuclear guarantee to Europe.

Any invasion triggers release of the devices into Taiwanese operational control.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#27

Post by keepamovin »

__turbobrew__ wrote: post #10

Im kind of surprised that Taiwan has never pursued a nuclear arsenal. They have the resources and technology to do so. A few nukes is going to be more of a deterrent than any number of reservists. The past few decades has shown that the greater powers of the world have no problem squashing you — unless you possess nuclear weapons.

[flagged]

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#28

Post by paulddraper »

keepamovin wrote: post #27
__turbobrew__ wrote: post #10

Im kind of surprised that Taiwan has never pursued a nuclear arsenal. They have the resources and technology to do so. A few nukes is going to be more of a deterrent than any number of reservists. The past few decades has shown that the greater powers of the world have no problem squashing you — unless you possess nuclear weapons.

[flagged]

> simply a foil for China

You say that like it's a bad thing...

---

EDIT: And while I'm under no illusions about the realpolitik, it's also true that China is a communist dictatorship; Taiwan is not.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#29

Post by ethbr1 »

ganeshkrishnan wrote: post #22
SteveNuts wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The war in Ukraine is over. What do you mean by that

[flagged]

Zelensky has been requesting peace since the beginning of the war -- Russia returns to Ukraine'# internationally recognized borders, and the war's over.

And last I checked, the manpower shortage should be addressed in 2026, after Ukraine finally lowered their draft age earlier the year.

Re: Taiwan is behind schedule in preparations to fend off Chinese invasion

#30

Post by zarzavat »

Waterluvian wrote: post #16
godelmachine wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good point. Probably the Americans have dissuaded them from building a nuclear warhead in exchange for guaranteed protection?

Which makes it critically important to see through to the end that Ukraine wins. Otherwise South Korea, Taiwan, and others would be right in recognizing that a nuclear arsenal is the better option.

This has always been true though. Consider, if the US is a friend worth depending on why do its closest allies UK, Israel and France still maintain nuclear weapons at great expense?

In Europe the fact that the US dragged its feet entering WWII is still within living memory. Asian countries perhaps are still to learn this lesson.

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