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Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

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Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#221

Post by onlyrealcuzzo »

gmaster1440 wrote: post #69
dinobones wrote: post #22

Here's this re-explained with a simpler example. Imagine you have 1,000 votes. You want to show that your political party got 60% of the vote, so, you claim: My party: 600 votes Opposition: 300 votes Other: 100 votes Presto, we got a good breakdown. The people will buy it.... It makes sense that 600 is exactly 60% of 1,000, because this was an artificial example. But in the real world, we don't get 1,000 votes. We ge…

If I'm in charge of forging a presidential election, how difficult is it for me to use realistic, "ugly" numbers to sell it more effectively?

Votes are not random.

So it would be non-trivial to make results look real.

Additionally, if even a few polling places release real data - that can really complicate things.

It will look very, very suspicious when some polling places display wildly different behaviors (especially if they match expectations) then the rest of the polling places.

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#222

Post by johnklos »

zamadatix wrote: post #174
johnklos wrote: post #158

[flagged]

They're probably just happy to keep the site somewhat reachable during spikes like this without constantly babying it. I.e. I doubt they are interested in filtering itself as much as even less interested in alternatives.

There are so many abuse protection companies out there that don't stigmatize non-western Internet users. Also, do we really think that Columbia's IT people are that bad? I doubt a page like this would get a substantial DDoS.

Making it inaccessible to half the world, particularly much of the country that the article is about, is conceding ahead of time to the people that might want to DDoS a page like this in the first place.

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#224

Post by tptacek »

gmaster1440 wrote: post #69
dinobones wrote: post #22

Here's this re-explained with a simpler example. Imagine you have 1,000 votes. You want to show that your political party got 60% of the vote, so, you claim: My party: 600 votes Opposition: 300 votes Other: 100 votes Presto, we got a good breakdown. The people will buy it.... It makes sense that 600 is exactly 60% of 1,000, because this was an artificial example. But in the real world, we don't get 1,000 votes. We ge…

If I'm in charge of forging a presidential election, how difficult is it for me to use realistic, "ugly" numbers to sell it more effectively?

I don't know, but the numbers they provided here are impossible.

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#225

Post by [deleted] »

culi wrote: post #146
suzzer99 wrote: post #17

More on this. The Carter Foundation, the only impartial observers who were in Venezuela for the election, and who previously defended Venezuela's election system following Chavez's 2004 win, has called on Maduro's government to release local vote tallies, which apparently it is never going to do: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/31/world/americas/venezuela-...

[flagged]

[deleted]

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#226

Post by adamtaylor_13 »

knowaveragejoe wrote: post #196
sam36 wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

We're still clinging to this in 2024? Wow.

Suppose there was legitimacy to this, which many believe, why wouldn’t we still talk about this in 2024? Are we not allowed to discuss history?

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#227

Post by colimbarna »

aaplok wrote: post #98
gmaster1440 wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I'm in charge of forging a presidential election, how difficult is it for me to use realistic, "ugly" numbers to sell it more effectively?

In light of recent analyses of suspicious elections (Iran, Russia, Venezuela), it seems harder than it sounds to avoid discernible patterns. On the other hand, the goal is to get away with fraud, not to convince an international community who will likely look for any confirmation of their suspicion. It would be interesting to look for patterns in a (presumably) fair election like the recent British one for comparison…

> On the other hand, the goal is to get away with fraud, not to convince an international community who will likely look for any confirmation of their suspicion.

Despite my joke in a sibling comment, this is key. When you're a politician everything is power relations. Sometimes it's necessary to show that you have the power to semi-obviously rig an election. Your bargaining position is different if it requires military force to remove you vs just an unhappy electorate. You can achieve different things.

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#228

Post by [deleted] »

consumer451 wrote: post #33

This is a bit of an aside, but as a geopolitical news junkie, what I keep searching on Google News is: Venezuela election Lula How his government reacts is going to be a major factor. Given Lula's past dedication to Chavezism, his post-election reaction has made me hopeful for change in Venezuela. What is directly related to TFA is that both the USA and Brazil want to see the voting data. https://www.reuters.com/worl…

[deleted]

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#229

Post by jpcfl »

culi wrote: post #146
suzzer99 wrote: post #17

More on this. The Carter Foundation, the only impartial observers who were in Venezuela for the election, and who previously defended Venezuela's election system following Chavez's 2004 win, has called on Maduro's government to release local vote tallies, which apparently it is never going to do: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/31/world/americas/venezuela-...

[flagged]

Anyone who calls this election fair is not impartial. The scale of the fraud is enormous and undeniable.

Tell me, how many Venezuelans abroad were able to vote? How many were kept out of the country because the borders were closed? How many were threatened or intimidated into voting for Maduro? How many votes were cast using false ID? How many were confused by the ballot which had 13 options to vote for Maduro? How many polling stations were closed at the last minute?

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#230

Post by manoweb »

oceanplexian wrote: post #149
worstspotgain wrote: post #139

This should remind us that "One Person, One Vote" can all too easily slip into "One Person, One Vote, One Time." For Venezuela that one time was in ~1998.

I guess it might be quite ironic but if people want to vote in a dictatorship, don’t they have the right to under a true democracy?

Pure democracies will ALWAYS vote themselves into dictatorships. That is why Constitutional Republics that use representation are more long-term stable.
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