Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

141–150 of 536 posts

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#141

Post by educasean »

a0123 wrote: post #119
dinobones wrote: post #22

Here's this re-explained with a simpler example. Imagine you have 1,000 votes. You want to show that your political party got 60% of the vote, so, you claim: My party: 600 votes Opposition: 300 votes Other: 100 votes Presto, we got a good breakdown. The people will buy it.... It makes sense that 600 is exactly 60% of 1,000, because this was an artificial example. But in the real world, we don't get 1,000 votes. We ge…

[flagged]

Many instances of numerical manipulations end up being discovered because the cheater didn't understand math well enough to hide their tracks correctly.

See this link for a recent example that's been on my mind: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mnet_vote_manipulation_inves... Basically, they just grabbed a random-looking numerical constant and used its multiples as the difference between vote numbers.

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#142

Post by digging »

sureglymop wrote: post #97
alephnerd wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Given Lula's past dedication to (sic) Chavezism Brazil has quasi-presidential system, but it's Chamber of Deputies has the actual power. In the 2000s, Lula's PT was the largest party (usually around 20-25% of the total seats) and could as such strongarm smaller leftist parties into a governing coalition with an absolute majority. Lula won the presidential election in 2022, but his party PT was the 3rd largest, and…

Why should they stop if this is something they enjoy reading and learning about? Why should they want to or have to affect changes personally? I fail to understand the last part..

I believe the request is "Stop using your wrong beliefs to try to influence others", not "Stop reading inexpert opinions"

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#143

Post by reducesuffering »

alephnerd wrote: post #63
consumer451 wrote: post #33

This is a bit of an aside, but as a geopolitical news junkie, what I keep searching on Google News is: Venezuela election Lula How his government reacts is going to be a major factor. Given Lula's past dedication to Chavezism, his post-election reaction has made me hopeful for change in Venezuela. What is directly related to TFA is that both the USA and Brazil want to see the voting data. https://www.reuters.com/worl…

> Given Lula's past dedication to (sic) Chavezism Brazil has quasi-presidential system, but it's Chamber of Deputies has the actual power. In the 2000s, Lula's PT was the largest party (usually around 20-25% of the total seats) and could as such strongarm smaller leftist parties into a governing coalition with an absolute majority. Lula won the presidential election in 2022, but his party PT was the 3rd largest, and…

Twitter (Alperovitch / Silverado Policy, someone influential enough to be sanctioned by Russian gov.) and HN is what surfaced the Russian invasion months before it happened. No academic book or Axios or Politico article was there to inform you conclusively that early. Lesswrong and HN were also much earlier (Jan '20) to the Covid epidemic, a major geopol issue, than your sources.

I appreciate the recommendations, but you're presenting valid useful alternatives (to be used as imperfect parts of a synthesis) as "idiots" when there are major counterfactuals they were better at.

I still empathize that those institutional sources are usually much better than the average social media post or user.

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#145

Post by culi »

DonnyV wrote: post #112
suzzer99 wrote: post #17

More on this. The Carter Foundation, the only impartial observers who were in Venezuela for the election, and who previously defended Venezuela's election system following Chavez's 2004 win, has called on Maduro's government to release local vote tallies, which apparently it is never going to do: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/31/world/americas/venezuela-...

[flagged]

I can't find much about the Carter Foundation, but Edison Polling—the organization that released the exit poll that showed the opposition winning— does have a long history of criticism for being US-backed and consistently producing results that favor US interests.

Meanwhile, the most respected pollster in the country, Hinterlaces, released an exit poll that estimated right around the actual results (54% vs 51%)

https://x.com/Hinterlaces/status/1817599369471799639

In addition, there are plenty of other international observers that back the result. Like the National Lawyers Guild

https://nlginternational.org/2024/07/press-release-national-...

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#146

Post by culi »

suzzer99 wrote: post #17

More on this. The Carter Foundation, the only impartial observers who were in Venezuela for the election, and who previously defended Venezuela's election system following Chavez's 2004 win, has called on Maduro's government to release local vote tallies, which apparently it is never going to do: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/31/world/americas/venezuela-...

[flagged]

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#147

Post by 1270018080 »

pydry wrote: post #82
forgetfulness wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maduro is also saying that the mass protests he's facing are the product of Chilean-trained operatives acting against him, he says many things.

[flagged]

Yeah I could see someone being paranoid from rigging several elections

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#148

Post by worstspotgain »

TimedToasts wrote: post #135
worstspotgain wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As someone who worked in the space, stop. It's a waste of time as you're not in a position to make changes We need people in the top 25% of the clued range to speak up. Otherwise the loud morons in the bottom 25% are at risk of being taken seriously by the middle 50%. Arguments don't need to be peer-review-quality every time someone speaks.

People in the top 25% are not wasting their time posting comments to Reddit et al. People who _think_ they are in the top 25%, sure.

People on this site are much more likely to be in the top 50%. Telling someone to shut up if they're not arbitrarily qualified is much more effective on people in the top quartile than the bottom one. [1]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#149

Post by oceanplexian »

worstspotgain wrote: post #139

This should remind us that "One Person, One Vote" can all too easily slip into "One Person, One Vote, One Time." For Venezuela that one time was in ~1998.

I guess it might be quite ironic but if people want to vote in a dictatorship, don’t they have the right to under a true democracy?
Post reply on HN