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Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

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Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#171
post #146

More on this. The Carter Foundation, the only impartial observers who were in Venezuela for the election, and who previously defended Venezuela's election system following Chavez's 2004 win, has called on Maduro's government to release local vote tallies, which apparently it is never going to do: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/31/world/americas/venezuela-...

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Given the transparently fake vote totals, perhaps we can update our priors on the impartiality of this guild.

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#172
post #50

To play the devil's advocate: It's possible that the person making the announcement was only given the rounded percentages and the total number of votes, and then "created" the number of votes per candidate to fit to the format of the announcement. That would be sloppy, but not malicious.

I've never seen any preliminary results announcing numbers of votes - it's always rounded up percentages with 1 or 2 decimals.

In my country (Korea) they broadcast vote counts, per district, in real time as data pours in from all over the country. It's a big entertainment going on for the whole night. And you can log onto the website of the office of the election commission and see raw numbers by each voting district.

It's 2024; I'd consider it a minimum level of government competency if anyone wants to be called a democratic country.

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#173

This is a bit of an aside, but as a geopolitical news junkie, what I keep searching on Google News is: Venezuela election Lula How his government reacts is going to be a major factor. Given Lula's past dedication to Chavezism, his post-election reaction has made me hopeful for change in Venezuela. What is directly related to TFA is that both the USA and Brazil want to see the voting data. https://www.reuters.com/worl…

> Given Lula's past dedication to (sic) Chavezism Brazil has quasi-presidential system, but it's Chamber of Deputies has the actual power. In the 2000s, Lula's PT was the largest party (usually around 20-25% of the total seats) and could as such strongarm smaller leftist parties into a governing coalition with an absolute majority. Lula won the presidential election in 2022, but his party PT was the 3rd largest, and…

> but it's Chamber of Deputies has the actual power

Just to point for anybody reading this and trying to understand Brazil, that this is a huge simplification that may not hold for other events.

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#174

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They're probably just happy to keep the site somewhat reachable during spikes like this without constantly babying it. I.e. I doubt they are interested in filtering itself as much as even less interested in alternatives.

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Given Lula's past dedication to (sic) Chavezism Brazil has quasi-presidential system, but it's Chamber of Deputies has the actual power. In the 2000s, Lula's PT was the largest party (usually around 20-25% of the total seats) and could as such strongarm smaller leftist parties into a governing coalition with an absolute majority. Lula won the presidential election in 2022, but his party PT was the 3rd largest, and…

> but it's Chamber of Deputies has the actual power Just to point for anybody reading this and trying to understand Brazil, that this is a huge simplification that may not hold for other events.

Agreed! Brazil has a very complex federal quasi-presidential system!

Please please please read academic books about the political history of Brazil or contemporary politics in Brazil instead of listening to a rando like me on the internet!

I'd recommend reading "Modern Brazil: A Social History", "The Brazilian Constitution of 1988: a comparative appraisal", "Constitutional Engineering in Brazil: The Politics of Federalism and Decentralization", etc, but there are some additional papers and books I could recommend as well.

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#176
post #145
post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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I can't find much about the Carter Foundation, but Edison Polling—the organization that released the exit poll that showed the opposition winning— does have a long history of criticism for being US-backed and consistently producing results that favor US interests. Meanwhile, the most respected pollster in the country, Hinterlaces, released an exit poll that estimated right around the actual results (54% vs 51%) https…

As a Venezuelan it baffles me how there can be people trying to support a regime that is only recognized by other authoritarian regimes. A regime with clear violations of Human Rights. Hinterlaces is government funded. There were many exit polls that showed the 60/40 split in favor of opposition. Even if you ignore those we are in an age when you can clearly see the government violently repressing and kidnapping as they are recorded and posted in twitter.

The Carter Center praises Venezuela voting process before. Even if you ignore that the fact is the opposition has published the tallies they have collected while the CNE is still busy doing who knows what (fabricating them).

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#177
post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's technically possible that that was not their weed and their meth in their pants because those were not their pants. However when they have a mile-long rap sheet for selling drugs, it weakens their argument a bit.

What's the mile long rap sheet though? The group that's alleging fraud (AltaVista) is using images of printed receipts from different voting places as a sample to estimate the final vote. That group also said it's same technique resulted in election outcomes that are within 2 points or less of the announced outcome for 2021, 2018, and 2015. This seems like a new and unique accusation for Venezuela Source: https://www…

> What's the mile long rap sheet though?

Venezuela’s terrible electoral record post Chavez.

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#178
post #78
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is that article not pointing to the source? I've looked for it, and I couldn't find it.

https://x.com/yvangil/status/1817787106237743565

I don't see the total number of votes/ballots. Is the vote in Venezuela 100% electronic? If not, there might be invalid paper ballots, too.

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#179
post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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He probably is. There’s no sane person that can defend what is happening in Venezuela. I’m Venezuelan and had to immigrate due to the countries condition. Out of more than 7 million that left only around 200k could vote from Outside. The want for change was such that even disbarring 7 million people they still lost.

I come here to get my tech news and encounter people doing government propaganda.

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#180

I think we are going to have to give up anonymity in the name of democracy. Unless you can confirm that your vote has been correctly counted, how can you ever be certain what they have done with it?

Isn't this exactly what freedomtool aims to solve? https://freedomtool.org/#/doc
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