Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

nvidianews.nvidia.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

91–100 of 367 posts

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#91

Post by foota »

MangoCoffee wrote: post #51
foota wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imo this depends on whether the limiting factor is demand or production. If it's production capacity, then if in a year they're able to get TSMC to make them twice as many chips, they could likely increase their growth rate? I'd be sweating if I were any of TSMCs other customers right now and trying to renew my contract. Idk what the ratio is in size between an H100 and an M3, but I doubt it's anywhere near proportio…

>I'd be sweating if I were any of TSMCs other customers right now and trying to renew my contract. How many TSMC's customers need the latest tech?

Anyone that wants to keep selling new phones every year?

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#92

Post by nabla9 »

allenrb wrote: post #48

We all understand that this cannot and will not continue, right? One of two things happens: 1. The AI boom goes bust. Nvidia sales and/or margins crater. The stock craters with it. 2. The AI boom is the real deal. Companies aren’t stupid and won’t keep paying Nvidia these prices forever. Pretty soon hardware and software architectures are standardized enough that anyone who can get onboard with TSMC, Samsung, or Inte…

3. To justify current valuation revenues must continue to grow next 4-5 years until plateauing while Nvidia profit margin gradually declines to something normal, like 30%.

High growth is fragile. The value of Nvidia has dropped 50% multiple times in the past. Recression, or temporary oversupply, anything can mess it.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#93

Post by beejiu »

darth_avocado wrote: post #82
georgeburdell wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is that not insider trading? I had opportunities to buy stock in companies that I knew my employer was about to do big business with, and could have profited handsomely, but was advised that it was at the very least against corporate guidelines

If you work for NVIDIA, it is insider trading. If you saw the pallets in a truck at a gas station, it’s not. In the wild, it’s no different from Wall Street making trades based on strip club attendance or by flying drones near Tesla factories.

> If you work for NVIDIA, it is insider trading.

Just to be absolutely clear, it can be insider trading if you don't work at NVIDIA.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#94

Post by eaenki »

Detrytus wrote: post #60
stocknoob wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You know, you can make money with predictions if you have the conviction.

Not GP, but that's exactly what I'm doing. Sold NVIDIA recently at 869 USD (having bought it at 453 USD), and invested profits in Intel :) We'll see how that plays out in a year or two.

really? intel a sideways stock from the 70s is the best long you found in the entire planet? out of all the financial instruments and all the markets and all the categories u actually believe that’s the best pain to gain ratio play

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#95

Post by jessriedel »

foota wrote: post #87
ipsento606 wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know nothing about stocks. But if a similar situation were to happen again, how can you tell whether or not the surge in demand is already "priced in"? Simply knowing that demand for a product has increased - even increased massively - surely can't tell you that the stock of the company that makes that product is going to increase in value, without also knowing whether or not that increase in demand is already refl…

The easy answer here would be to look at analyst estimates. If you notice nvidia selling 20 billion in H100s and the consensus revenue is 10 billion, then it's probably not priced in.

How can you just "notice" them selling 20B? How are you getting better data than the analysts?

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#96

Post by darth_avocado »

georgeburdell wrote: post #86
darth_avocado wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you work for NVIDIA, it is insider trading. If you saw the pallets in a truck at a gas station, it’s not. In the wild, it’s no different from Wall Street making trades based on strip club attendance or by flying drones near Tesla factories.

OP works for a customer of NVDA and made inferences based on shipments they saw coming in. That does not seem like public knowledge

It CAN be considered insider trading then. If you work for company A and are aware of a large monetary deal between company A & company B that is otherwise not known to the public, if you trade company B’s stock, not only can it be considered insider trading, it may even violate company A’s internal policies which can get you fired.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#97

Post by zooq_ai »

georgeburdell wrote: post #86
darth_avocado wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you work for NVIDIA, it is insider trading. If you saw the pallets in a truck at a gas station, it’s not. In the wild, it’s no different from Wall Street making trades based on strip club attendance or by flying drones near Tesla factories.

OP works for a customer of NVDA and made inferences based on shipments they saw coming in. That does not seem like public knowledge

No different from a Walmart cashier observing everyone is checking out Playstation 5 at an alarming rate.

No different from using satellite images of Costco parking lot.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#98

Post by martinpw »

almog wrote: post #3

Guidance should be out soon and it might change things a bit but so far, the stock barely moves (compared to past earning reports) even with stock split + dividend increase. This looks rather bearish.

Bit premature to say that. It's now up 7% after hours. And of course tomorrow is what really matters.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#99

Post by puika »

darth_avocado wrote: post #82
georgeburdell wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is that not insider trading? I had opportunities to buy stock in companies that I knew my employer was about to do big business with, and could have profited handsomely, but was advised that it was at the very least against corporate guidelines

If you work for NVIDIA, it is insider trading. If you saw the pallets in a truck at a gas station, it’s not. In the wild, it’s no different from Wall Street making trades based on strip club attendance or by flying drones near Tesla factories.

if "pallets of H100s shipping that were worth 100s of millions each pallet." and "12+ months of back orders with Nvidia alone" are not public information, then in my mind that is insider trading, especially those backorders.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#100

Post by gizmo »

ipsento606 wrote: post #77
AnotherGoodName wrote: post #46

This stock is a great example of invest in stocks where you have strong knowledge. I saw pallets of h100s shipping that were worth 100s of millions each pallet (each card is $40k and you can fit a lot on a pallet) as someone working for a company buying these and knowing that many other companies were doing the same (we have 12+ months of back orders with nvidia alone). I invested last year at ~$250 when redditors we…

I know nothing about stocks. But if a similar situation were to happen again, how can you tell whether or not the surge in demand is already "priced in"? Simply knowing that demand for a product has increased - even increased massively - surely can't tell you that the stock of the company that makes that product is going to increase in value, without also knowing whether or not that increase in demand is already refl…

As a rule of thumb it is never priced in when a company suddenly has tremendous acceleration in revenue and profit growth. Wall Street is good at forecasting businesses with a stable growth trajectory. Wall Street is way too conservative at inflection points because it’s too embarrassing to be wrong (in either direction).
Post reply on HN