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Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

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Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#81

Post by trhway »

deadbabe wrote: post #36
nabla9 wrote: post #19

Bloomberg consensus data expectations YoY were: 400% earnings growth and 242% revenue growth. The reality was 461% earnings growth (629% GAAP) 262% revenue growth. 78.9% gross margin. Nvidia did it again.

How do they keep doing this

in the past - Industrial Revolution - when somebody started producing something profitable others would start similar production too. In our post-Industrial age software provides the moat protecting your hardware margin. The IBM's PC cloning was the perfect illustration when such a moat wasn't utilized. Everybody learned the lesson, pushed for DMCA and the likes and here we're.

Speaking about how high is the specific moat here - NVDA had great foresight starting to develop their CUDA almost 20 years ago. I at the time was thinking - the HPC market couldn't be that big to support that investment. Well, when 10 year ago the GPU deep learning arrived with AlexNet the CUDA was ready for that Valkyrie ride we've been seeing since then while all the other players are only starting to wake up at best.

That is on supply side. On the demand side - if any projections about AI even in nanobots in your blood come even partially true - we have decades of AI technology growth ahead, and like with other foundational technologies of our civilization - electricity and the internet and the space (guess who is going to mine He3 on the Moon?) - it will be everywhere. NVDA probably like any other company will stagnate and become MBA heaven like say IBM or even rot and perish and/or somebody will come up with completely different technology for AI leaving NVDA in the dust, yet it is hard to see how it can take less than coupe of decades (i.e. hardly can happen until Jensen leaves). (i'm long if any asks :)

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#82

Post by darth_avocado »

georgeburdell wrote: post #72
AnotherGoodName wrote: post #46

This stock is a great example of invest in stocks where you have strong knowledge. I saw pallets of h100s shipping that were worth 100s of millions each pallet (each card is $40k and you can fit a lot on a pallet) as someone working for a company buying these and knowing that many other companies were doing the same (we have 12+ months of back orders with nvidia alone). I invested last year at ~$250 when redditors we…

Is that not insider trading? I had opportunities to buy stock in companies that I knew my employer was about to do big business with, and could have profited handsomely, but was advised that it was at the very least against corporate guidelines

If you work for NVIDIA, it is insider trading. If you saw the pallets in a truck at a gas station, it’s not. In the wild, it’s no different from Wall Street making trades based on strip club attendance or by flying drones near Tesla factories.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#83

Post by MangoCoffee »

legitster wrote: post #20

I know it's never going to happen, but Nvidia really should spin off their consumer division - it's such a complete afterthought at this point. They are sitting on all of this amazing technology but just kind of stringing along the market at this point.

Isn't Nvidia's AI chip is based on their own GPU? Let's say the current AI trend goes away. It's good to have something to fall back on, and why would you cut the consumer side off? It's all based on the same architecture. It's not like it's going to cost or lose them money.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#84

Post by seydor »

AnotherGoodName wrote: post #46

This stock is a great example of invest in stocks where you have strong knowledge. I saw pallets of h100s shipping that were worth 100s of millions each pallet (each card is $40k and you can fit a lot on a pallet) as someone working for a company buying these and knowing that many other companies were doing the same (we have 12+ months of back orders with nvidia alone). I invested last year at ~$250 when redditors we…

also, never listen to survivorship bias

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#85

Post by zooq_ai »

AnotherGoodName wrote: post #46

This stock is a great example of invest in stocks where you have strong knowledge. I saw pallets of h100s shipping that were worth 100s of millions each pallet (each card is $40k and you can fit a lot on a pallet) as someone working for a company buying these and knowing that many other companies were doing the same (we have 12+ months of back orders with nvidia alone). I invested last year at ~$250 when redditors we…

Do the opposite of (popular) HN too

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#86

Post by georgeburdell »

darth_avocado wrote: post #82
georgeburdell wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is that not insider trading? I had opportunities to buy stock in companies that I knew my employer was about to do big business with, and could have profited handsomely, but was advised that it was at the very least against corporate guidelines

If you work for NVIDIA, it is insider trading. If you saw the pallets in a truck at a gas station, it’s not. In the wild, it’s no different from Wall Street making trades based on strip club attendance or by flying drones near Tesla factories.

OP works for a customer of NVDA and made inferences based on shipments they saw coming in. That does not seem like public knowledge

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#87

Post by foota »

ipsento606 wrote: post #77
AnotherGoodName wrote: post #46

This stock is a great example of invest in stocks where you have strong knowledge. I saw pallets of h100s shipping that were worth 100s of millions each pallet (each card is $40k and you can fit a lot on a pallet) as someone working for a company buying these and knowing that many other companies were doing the same (we have 12+ months of back orders with nvidia alone). I invested last year at ~$250 when redditors we…

I know nothing about stocks. But if a similar situation were to happen again, how can you tell whether or not the surge in demand is already "priced in"? Simply knowing that demand for a product has increased - even increased massively - surely can't tell you that the stock of the company that makes that product is going to increase in value, without also knowing whether or not that increase in demand is already refl…

The easy answer here would be to look at analyst estimates. If you notice nvidia selling 20 billion in H100s and the consensus revenue is 10 billion, then it's probably not priced in.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#88

Post by eaenki »

madisp wrote: post #52
groceryheist wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The topline is that the meteoric growth has already occurred. 18% quarterly revenue growth is good, YoY growth was 15x that.

18% quarterly comes to around 190% yearly, still _very_ good!

more like 90% lol

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#89

Post by PaulKeeble »

This likely has more staying power than the crypto boom that fueled AMD's GPUs to enormous heights but when that crashed AMD ended up holding a lot of stock it couldn't shift and had an enormous right down of inventory. This AI bubble could be burst by a better cheaper product more dedicated to the task or a realisation that the issues with AI just can't be solved and a cooling off of the market hype.

What I fear is that Nvidia sees no value in its basic graphics cards any more or wants a lot more for them because they could sell that wafer space to businesses for more $. Its been getting crazy expensive for decent GPUs for a while for gaming and I can't see the next generation doing anything but being much higher due to the AI boom.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#90

Post by zooq_ai »

somethoughts wrote: post #65
AnotherGoodName wrote: post #46

This stock is a great example of invest in stocks where you have strong knowledge. I saw pallets of h100s shipping that were worth 100s of millions each pallet (each card is $40k and you can fit a lot on a pallet) as someone working for a company buying these and knowing that many other companies were doing the same (we have 12+ months of back orders with nvidia alone). I invested last year at ~$250 when redditors we…

The million dollar question (or trillion dollar question I suppose) is for the upcoming quarters - will there be pallets of h100s waiting shipment, 2x pallets of h100s or 10x pallets of h100s... or have all the pallets are shipped for the time being. Has demand saturated while downstream AI engineers tinker on actually profitable use cases or is it going to keep growing exponentially. Probably most stock price models…

The answer is we are in the Pentium II 33 MHz stage of AI chips.

So, plan accordingly into what the future demand may look like.

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