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Google Earning Q1 2024 [pdf]

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Re: Google Earning Q1 2024 [pdf]

#151
post #148
post #9

I thought that this earnings announcement would be the first one where we'd see some impact from competitive knowledge engines, e.g. Perplexity, You.com, ChatGPT + Bing, etc., but Google still grew search $6B/15%. This is impressive both because it's hard to keep such a big business growing at that rate and because essentially everyone in my social circle has moved on from going to Google first for information. I gue…

The volume of search ads I see increased dramatically since one year ago. Just adding a data point to the discussion.

Yes, and this strategy is only good for one or two pumps, because the advertisers will eventually notice the lower engagement rate per dollar of spend and reduce their commitment accordingly.

I'm curious what 2025 will look like for Elgoog. There are only so many desperate death throw spin tweaks available before the opportunities for indirection are exhausted.

Re: Google Earning Q1 2024 [pdf]

#152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think most companies would love to being "dying" like Google "is". Seriously, Google is not dying and making obviously false claims is not helpful.

Speaking as a shareholder here, a 2 trillion dollar valuation warrants extraordinary justification. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. As the AI models get better and better at compressing the world's information, people will be going directly to their model of choice

> a 2 trillion dollar valuation warrants extraordinary justification

$320B annual revenue, 15% growth, $0.20 per share dividend and $70B share buyback.

Enough said.

Re: Google Earning Q1 2024 [pdf]

#153

> Alphabet’s Board of Directors today authorized the company to repurchase up to an additional $70.0 billion of its Class A and Class C shares in a manner deemed in the best interest of the company and its stockholders The most important item on the report

Why don't American companies pay dividends? I assume it's not tax efficient to pay dividends in the US?

They are doing a dividend too.

Re: Google Earning Q1 2024 [pdf]

#154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What an odd statement. Care to explain why you think a routine buyback announcement is important?

Stock buybacks are done when a company think either 1. they are massively under valued, or 2. when there isn't a better investment for their cash.

Google does it regularly as they pay out so much RSUs they want to keep the same number of shares on the market. You can look and see them historically doing this

Re: Google Earning Q1 2024 [pdf]

#155
post #98
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"There is no alternative" I wouldn't put it past Google/Meta coopting corporate advertisers. Everyone makes everyone look good, by stating the best possible numbers.

Google and Meta literally represent alternative advertising products.

So do Android and iOS. They're still the primary indicators of the strength of the smartphone market. You probably can't imagine a world without advertisements or smartphones, but that's the point from the post you're responding to that you're missing. If the advertising industry looks healthy, it helps everyone by keeping investors satisfied and share prices up, even if it's a ruse. It is possible for smartphones and the concept of advertising to cease existing some day. There's a spectrum between the current reality and absolute zero, and staying as far away from zero is the goal, even once we enter an inescapable decline.

Re: Google Earning Q1 2024 [pdf]

#157

It's going to take a long time for alternatives to make inroads into Google. There are lots of marketing dollars looking for a home, and Google is going to be one of the better bets for some time to come. They may turn into a zombie but they won't die for a long, long time. For example, cable companies still exist and have a ton of paid ads on them. Fox makes $3-5B in sales per quarter: https://valustox.com/FOXA Sinc…

With the amount of mindshare, infrastructure and over 90% of the search engine market share that Google has, it will take decades to even begin to challenge Google's market share in search.

We've seen this with Neeva which is now no more. Perplexity appears to be no different and only appeals to techies and at the same time is already dependent on Google search for their results, according to The Information.

In fact I can only see them getting shut down like Neeva or the case of Perplexity likely to be acquired. Amazon looks more of a potential acquirer for Perplexity AI.

Re: Google Earning Q1 2024 [pdf]

#158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have no idea of Whatsapp's marketshare in India - all small businesses use Whatsapp for all communication and even take payments. That's a 1.4B population.

How does whatsapp make money? (At all, and how much?) It's not possible it makes as much as the main Meta properties. It has no ads on anything people use.

It's not about money - how valuable the company is depends on how many people use it intersect how useful it is. As long as it's valuable, it's valuable.

Re: Google Earning Q1 2024 [pdf]

#159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why don't American companies pay dividends? I assume it's not tax efficient to pay dividends in the US?

If you as a shareholder receive a dividend of X% of the share price, you owe tax on it. But if the company buys back stock and as a result the share price increases by X%, you do not owe tax on that unrealized gain until you choose to sell your stock. That’s good for investors.

Also, dividends are taxed as ordinary income whereas stock buybacks lead to capital gains, which almost always have a lower tax rate.

Re: Google Earning Q1 2024 [pdf]

#160
post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google Search is a product embedded in the lives of everyone on the planet. I wonder to what extent its growth is a reflection of increasing population and Internet penetration. Even if "competitive knowledge engines" impacted Google Search, the effect would likely be minuscule compared to existing growth trajectories. Speaking personally, there are some queries where I prefer an LLM. But usually I start with Google,…

Everyone on the planet? Even in China or Russia?

Google is just good. You use it to get human answer to a question and find relevant information on a topic. Those are of human nature.
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