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Amazon grows to over 750k robots, replacing 100k humans

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Re: Amazon grows to over 750k robots, replacing 100k humans

#391
post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, who's volunteering to be the first one? For sure I won't volunteer for it :-)

The embryos I just had implanted in my surrogate are the result of eugenics. I hand picked the egg donor based on SAT. When the embryos were created, I got their 23andme reports and validated that the ones implanted had the appropriate SNPs for intelligence by cross referencing snpedia. Almost everyone does step 1, but very few people do step 2.

Hey, I would be interested in doing the same. How hard is it?

Re: Amazon grows to over 750k robots, replacing 100k humans

#392

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right now we have a lot of jobs that are extremely low efficiency, if not outright net negatives. These are the sorts of jobs that markets tend to eliminate, because the company that gets rid of them can charge lower prices than the one that doesn't. But that doesn't work when the job exists as a result of regulatory rules, or the company is a monopoly not subject to competitive pressure. What does work is to improve…

Sure, if you can somehow find a way to double the efficiency of labor then you can either double your standard of living or half your number of hours. We've already done that multiple times since the industrial revolution. That's why modern first world society is so rich compared to the past. And there are certainly significant inefficiencies created due to government regulation, though probably not enough to double…

> And there are certainly significant inefficiencies created due to government regulation, though probably not enough to double our productivity even if you did have the knowledge and political capitol fix all those issues perfectly.

Keep in mind that a lot of these rules are multiplicative. Zoning rules limit the amount of new housing construction and increase construction costs because now you have to e.g. replace a 10 story building with a 20 story building, bulldozing the 10 story building, instead of replacing a single family home with a 10 story building to add the same number of units. Professional licensing apprenticeship requirements limit the supply of licensed tradesmen, increasing construction costs. These multiply together: You have to do more construction and the construction has a higher labor cost.

Then housing costs more, so you have to pay higher salaries for the same cost of living -- including to tradesmen, which makes construction cost even more, multiplying the effect again. But not just tradesmen, also the salaries of compliance bureaucrats needed by any other form of regulation, and the cost of commercial real estate for their offices.

Double is, if anything, an underestimate. These costs are quadratic.

> Building codes undoubtedly make housing significantly more expensive, but I'd still rather live in a society with expensive housing where I don't have to worry about the floor collapsing on me than a society with cheap housing where I do.

The building codes from decades ago were sufficient to prevent buildings from collapsing. Since then they've been accumulating cruft. Many of these individual requirements each add hundreds to thousands of dollars to the cost of a new house in exchange for a marginal safety improvement with a negative expected value.

And then you don't even get the safety improvement, because making new construction prohibitively expensive causes people to continue to live in old houses that weren't subject to the new requirements anyway. All you do is make housing more scarce.

> There's a balance there obviously, but my point is sometimes the extra expense can be worth it even if its not "net positive" in a purely economical sense.

"Net positive" is the measure of if it's worth it. You have a measure that can prevent a 1 in 1000 chance of $50,000 in damage but it costs $1000. You're spending an average of $1,000,000 to prevent $50,000 in damage. It's not worth it.

> There are so many things we consider necessities now that would be considered luxuries 100 years ago. I see no reason why things won't continue to move mostly in that direction as technology improves.

Most of these things are things that didn't previously exist, like cellphones or computers. Now you need one because it has replaced certain ways of interacting with people and institutions and the old ways are no longer available.

But let's suppose the definition of necessities expands over time. It used to be food and shelter, then we added medicine and transportation, then we added internet. Maybe tomorrow we add a personal robot or something else. But what if all of those things together cost $10,000/year? Would everyone choose to work full time if the surplus was solely to purchase luxury goods?

> I know a lot of people who earn enough that they could match my standard of living working only 10 hours a week. They mostly don't, and instead spend the extra wealth on things like larger houses, fancier cars, exotic vacations, etc.

There are also people who sell their startup and then choose to retire in their 20s or 30s. Different people make different choices.

Re: Amazon grows to over 750k robots, replacing 100k humans

#393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.theverge.com/2024/4/17/24133029/amazon-just-walk...

From TFA: "While Amazon insists these reports are “erroneous,” it doesn’t deny that humans aren’t involved with the process at all. Instead, Amazon says its workers are tasked with annotating AI-generated and real shopping data to improve the Just Walk Out system — not run the whole thing. “This is no different than any other AI system that places a high value on accuracy, where human reviewers are common,” Dilip Kum…

Nevermind, I see from your profile, you do have Amazon equity.

"I used to run reddit.com's servers, then I ran Site Reliability at Netflix, then I worked on making Alexa faster and smarter."

Real astroturf hours here. Please keep your Amazon apologia to yourself.

Re: Amazon grows to over 750k robots, replacing 100k humans

#394
post #387

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't that a question of incentives, though? Modern people residing on Earth don't generally have to be self sufficient for months. Even in isolated places like the South Pole during winter, windows of opportunity for transport to civilization open here and now. On the other hand, the Sentinelese are self sufficient. Yeah, on a primitive level, but they manage it, because they simply have to. None of us here on HN wo…

Are you asking yourself? "If someone really dumps a hundred people on a distant planet"... they die. Yes the incentive to not die is exactly why there is a ton of work to be done before it is a practical reality. Really, even transportation of 100 people at once is currently a fantasy.

For some reason, I didn't have a Reply link available at your comment for hours.

Re: Amazon grows to over 750k robots, replacing 100k humans

#395
post #391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The embryos I just had implanted in my surrogate are the result of eugenics. I hand picked the egg donor based on SAT. When the embryos were created, I got their 23andme reports and validated that the ones implanted had the appropriate SNPs for intelligence by cross referencing snpedia. Almost everyone does step 1, but very few people do step 2.

Hey, I would be interested in doing the same. How hard is it?

Find a fertility clinic that partners or will partner with https://www.lifeview.com/

Select eggs/sperm and make embryos at fertility clinic.

Ship them all off to Genomic Prediction.

After you get their simplified test results, call and ask for the full report that is compatible with 23andme.

Search snpedia for keywords like intelligence, retardation, educational attainment and cross reference their existence/non-existence with the 23andme text file.

Have fertility doctor implant the embryo of your choosing.

If you have/are a female, the price is dramatically cheaper. Otherwise its about $200k (all post-tax). Embryo creation $45k, surrogacy agency fee $30k, surrogate $70k, baby delivery $25k, embryo testing $6k.

Re: Amazon grows to over 750k robots, replacing 100k humans

#396
post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's undeniably true, but not the point: obviously new technology eliminates entire classes of jobs (not much call for telephone switchboard operators these days), but ultimately if more jobs are created than are lost, we're fine. I personally do wonder, though, if many of the new jobs that are created are worse jobs. For example, I have not yet taken any work in the "gig economy", but most of it seems pretty miser…

> but ultimately if more jobs are created than are lost For people who believe more jobs are created, it seems like they rely in chaos theory or something. They can't see how or where these new jobs will be created or how automation leads to it. We automated physical labour so we increased intellectual labour. Now are automating intellectual labour too so what's being increased now?

amount of people who can do stuff that is considered "intellectual"?

It is not different from happened with guns - with introduction of guns, military has grown bigger not smaller - in comparison to knight era.

Now you will have more people who will be able to produce art, write music, songs, develop games, write stories and so on. People will be able to produce scenes without months or years of learning how to use photoshop, after effects and co. We now have more painters than in da vinci era and we have more musicians than in bach era.

Same with software engineering - ability to do stuff easier will produce more people doing that. Not less. We do not code to the metal much anymore - most of the software engineers do not use assembly anymore and higher level languages simplified stuff that required hard learning in the past - yet the amount of developers is more than ever.

Re: Amazon grows to over 750k robots, replacing 100k humans

#397
post #391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hey, I would be interested in doing the same. How hard is it?

Find a fertility clinic that partners or will partner with https://www.lifeview.com/ Select eggs/sperm and make embryos at fertility clinic. Ship them all off to Genomic Prediction. After you get their simplified test results, call and ask for the full report that is compatible with 23andme. Search snpedia for keywords like intelligence, retardation, educational attainment and cross reference their existence/non-exis…

Thanks!

Re: Amazon grows to over 750k robots, replacing 100k humans

#398

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but ultimately if more jobs are created than are lost For people who believe more jobs are created, it seems like they rely in chaos theory or something. They can't see how or where these new jobs will be created or how automation leads to it. We automated physical labour so we increased intellectual labour. Now are automating intellectual labour too so what's being increased now?

amount of people who can do stuff that is considered "intellectual"? It is not different from happened with guns - with introduction of guns, military has grown bigger not smaller - in comparison to knight era. Now you will have more people who will be able to produce art, write music, songs, develop games, write stories and so on. People will be able to produce scenes without months or years of learning how to use p…

Software development is a bit of an exception because we have, probably by a whole order of magnitude, too few developers for the world.

However, what about all other things that are intellectual? Accountants, word processors, assistants, etc? We need fewer of those people than ever before.

As for the effect on art, the greater the unskilled people who can produce art the less it's worth. AI will eventually drive the value of art to zero. Even now 99.99999% of skilled musicians are unable to make a living doing it.

Re: Amazon grows to over 750k robots, replacing 100k humans

#399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>just says that you want people to carry on doing that work Or that we don't want them to starve. We are talking about the US where their isn't really an effective solution to help people without jobs.

Can you share your data on starvation in the US? I’m sincerely curious about it.

Here are some links about food insecurity.

https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/food-nutrition-assistance/fo...

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2023/10/26/1208760...

Re: Amazon grows to over 750k robots, replacing 100k humans

#400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, if you can somehow find a way to double the efficiency of labor then you can either double your standard of living or half your number of hours. We've already done that multiple times since the industrial revolution. That's why modern first world society is so rich compared to the past. And there are certainly significant inefficiencies created due to government regulation, though probably not enough to double…

> And there are certainly significant inefficiencies created due to government regulation, though probably not enough to double our productivity even if you did have the knowledge and political capitol fix all those issues perfectly. Keep in mind that a lot of these rules are multiplicative. Zoning rules limit the amount of new housing construction and increase construction costs because now you have to e.g. replace…

It seems to me like we're mostly in agreement. I agree regulations can have compounding negative effects, though whether that's enough to account for a potential 2x improvement in overall economic output is something I would still dispute without any hard numbers to back up that claim.

I also think you've misunderstood my point about regulations. What I'm saying is that sometimes regulations can serve as a sort of "luxury good", where even if they're a net negative economically (like in your example of the uneconomical safety improvements) the quality of life benefits can still make them worth the cost in a society that's wealthy enough to absorb those costs.

I'm not saying that's always the case. Sometimes the costs clearly aren't worth it even factoring in subjective benefits. Just that its another thing to consider.

I also agree that there's probably a certain point where people would start to value their time more than what we today would consider "luxury goods". Just that that point is probably a lot further out than you might expect, because what's considered a luxury is relative to the cultural standards of the society you live in. Some people do chose to retire in their 30s, but I know a lot more people who didn't do that even though they probably could have.

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