Amazon grows to over 750k robots, replacing 100k humans

> I'm much happier watching robots take over dangerous, mundane tasks, than seeing them edge into creative, intellectual, and decision-making work.

I used to think this way, and to an extent I still do, but the reality is that not everybody wants to do intellectual work or decision making as a day job. Some people prefer to do labour, or to have their work relatively unchanging. I know smart and intellectually capable people who have said they like the fact that they don't need to think that much in their day jobs.

(Those preferences are of course a spectrum, as are jobs.)

For lots of us, automating away the mundane work is a dream, but at the same time the development puts pressure on those who don't find it desirable. One person's dream is stressful to another.

To support your point that we we make choices among alternative, see this document I put together circa 2010 with about 50 alternatives -- some good, some obviously bad -- we can use to address the socio-economic changes needed to maintain healthy human communities in the face of increased automation: https://pdfernhout.net/beyond-a-jobless-recovery-knol.html "This article explores the issue of a "Jobless Recovery" mainly from a heterodox economic perspective. It emphasizes the implications of ideas by Marshall Brain and others that improvements in robotics, automation, design, and voluntary social networks are fundamentally changing the structure of the economic landscape. It outlines towards the end four major alternatives to mainstream economic practice (a basic income, a gift economy, stronger local subsistence economies, and resource-based planning). These alternatives could be used in combination to address what, even as far back as 1964, has been described as a breaking "income-through-jobs link". This link between jobs and income is breaking because of the declining value of most paid human labor relative to capital investments in automation and better design. Or, as is now the case, the value of paid human labor like at some newspapers or universities is also declining relative to the output of voluntary social networks such as for digital content production (like represented by this document). It is suggested that we will need to fundamentally reevaluate our economic theories and practices to adjust to these new realities emerging from exponential trends in technology and society."

It covers a bit of the history which you alluded to earlier in a previous post, such as the "Triple Revolution Memorandum" from 1964. But the root of all this thinking go way back -- whether to the original communal Christians in the face of the Roman Empire, various Utopian communities (including ones inspired by Charles Fourier) to Marxism, Socialism, Luddites, resistance to "Enclosure Acts", Henry George, Elizabeth Magie (her educational cautionary Landlord's Game ripped off in part as dystopian Monopoly), Bucky Fuller, Bob Black ("The Abolition of work"), Ursula K. Le Guinn, James P. Hogan, Paolo Soleri / Arcosanti, Marshal Sahlins, Amory & Hunter Lovins, John and Nancy Jack Todd of The New Alchemy Institute, Martin Ford, and many more. Not all the alternative ideas worked out or even got started for all sorts of reasons, but there are a lot of alternatives are out there.

See especially: "The Dictionary of Alternatives: Utopianism and Organization" https://www.bloomsbury.com/us/dictionary-of-alternatives-978... "'There is no alternative to free market liberalism and managerialism', is the orthodoxy of the twenty-first century. All too often, ordinary people across the world are being told that the problem of organization is already solved, or that it is being solved somewhere else, or that it need not concern them because they have no choices. This dictionary provides those who disagree with the evidence. Using hundreds of entries and cross-references, it proves that there are many alternatives to the way that we currently organize ourselves. These alternatives could be expressed as fictional utopias, they could be excavated from the past, or they could be described in terms of the contemporary politics of anti-corporate protest, environmentalism, feminism and localism. Part reference work, part source book, and part polemic, this dictionary provides a rich understanding of the ways in which fiction, history and today's politics provide different ways of thinking about how we can and should organize for the coming century."

Indeed, I was in a way surprised (and yet also hopeful) in reading all the comments here in that many people are slowly rediscovering all these ideas for themselves as the issue grows more pressing.

For some other ideas on improving and transforming current organizations, see also this other resource I put together: https://github.com/pdfernhout/High-Performance-Organizations...

Essentially, I have been dealing with "AI/Robotics Anxiety" for about forty years, and collected many ideas for coping with it along the way. I'm working in a broader document more specific to that which I may put up on my website at some point.

Ironically, while I won awards for robotics projects before attending Princeton as an undergrad, and my undergrad work at Princeton in AI and cognitive psychology helped inspire WordNet which led to Simpli and the core of Gogole AdSense, it was maybe conversations with Jeff in passing at Princeton about the potential to use robots in commerce and space exploration --- which I doubt he remembers -- that might have had the biggest impact of my career to-date in a robotics sense given Amazon and its emulators. Not to take any credit away from George or Jeff in terms of their specific vision, hard work, improvisations, and persistence in the face of adversity, and also to accept that a place like Princeton can be a Brian-Eno-style "scenius" where ideas bounce around and transform as they are reflected on and refined by different people with different perspectives. https://austinkleon.com/2017/05/12/scenius/ "There’s a healthier way of thinking about creativity that the musician Brian Eno refers to as “scenius.” Under this model, great ideas are often birthed by a group of creative individuals—artists, curators, thinkers, theorists, and other tastemakers—who make up an “ecology of talent.” If you look back closely at history, many of the people who we think of as lone geniuses were actually part of “a whole scene of people who were supporting each other, looking at each other’s work, copying from each other, stealing ideas, and contributing ideas.” Scenius doesn’t take away from the achievements of those great individuals: it just acknowledges that good work isn’t created in a vacuum, and that creativity is always, in some sense, a collaboration, the result of a mind connected to other minds. What I love about the idea of scenius is that it makes room in the story of creativity for the rest of us: the people who don’t consider ourselves geniuses. Being a valuable part of a scenius is not necessarily about how smart or talented you are, but about what you have to contribute—the ideas you share, the quality of the connections you make, and the conversations you start. If we forget about genius and think more about how we can nurture and contribute to a scenius, we can adjust our own expectations and the expectations of the worlds we want to accept us. We can stop asking what others can do for us, and start asking what we can do for others."

But I am a bit sad about the results so far though, given how robotics, AI, and other automation are turning out to do so much damage in practice to so many people's lives when used from a scarcity-oriented mindset. It was always my intent -- especially having read so much sci-fi like Isaac Asimov robot stories, "The Skills of Xanadu" by Theodore Sturgeon, and also James P. Hogan's "The Two Faces of Tomorrow" and also his "Voyage from Yesteryear" -- that way more positives than negatives would come out of the abundance that robotics, AI, and other automation (including information technology) can provide.

A related video parable I made on such themes circa 2010: "The Richest Man in the World: A parable about structural unemployment and a basic income" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p14bAe6AzhA

As with my sig (first sent in an email to Marvin Minsky) of "The biggest challenge of the 21st century is the irony of technologies of abundance in the hands of those still thinking in terms of scarcity", I have realized -- as Einstein suggested about nuclear weapons or Lewis Mumford about technology in general or James P. Hogan essentially says through his novels -- it takes change of heart and mindset to realize the benefits of what is possible using automation without otherwise creating a terrible human calamity.

An example of things going wrong is creating problematical working conditions when automation is used to make humans work like micromanaged robots centralizing wealth for a few people. Related US DOL citation for Amazon essentially for not automating enough: https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases/osha/osha20230201-0

As I've reflected on, if you get up in the early morning in the dark and turn a light on in the kitchen, the light may seem so bright you can't look at it even as it even as it makes it possible for you to get your day started. And by the time the sun comes up and lights your entire home and landscape, you may forget the kitchen light is even on because it is no longer noticeable relative to the surrounding broad illumination. Gary Kildall no doubt faced that with CPM. So that is kind of how I see the comments overall on the story. The sun is coming up as millions of people are starting to think about robotics, AI, and other automation and its likely near-term effect on themselves and society, and all the "bright lights" from decades past are just not noticeable from all the ongoing thinking and chatter. And that is maybe a good thing -- even if there are still ideas from then which might be useful now and will either be remembered, reread, or rediscovered.

I understand your opinion, I just disagree.

It is painfully obvious to me that we haven't even managed self sustained colonization of the most extreme environments of Earth. Mars isn't just going to happen by accident because someone flies there.

Additionally, SpaceX is not going to manage it alone when a manned flight does happen. It will be NASA's Artemis program.

Are you asking yourself?

"If someone really dumps a hundred people on a distant planet"... they die.

Yes the incentive to not die is exactly why there is a ton of work to be done before it is a practical reality.

Really, even transportation of 100 people at once is currently a fantasy.

Great point on what would happen to mass-produced items like laptops if everyone moved to remote cabins in the woods to live cheaply.

And yes, a drawback to educating yourself via videos or reading (or even by taking some tests) is that it is relatively passive. A hands-on aspect is essential to a lot of skills, like learning to write by writing, learning to use machine tools by machining, learning to do chemistry by mixing chemicals, and learning to use a language by speaking it in important contexts. And setting up such contexts is one value of good educational settings (either in or out of schools).

As a parent who home-schooled from K-12, definitely the lack of easy access to some settings where various skills could be practiced was a limitation. We tried to make up for it as best we could in other ways.

Some learning can happen virtually to an extent, like virtual chemistry sets (even as they don't convey the visceral feel of working with glassware and liquids and such).

I'll be curious how using ChatGPT to learn languages works out: https://www.howtogeek.com/chatgpt-conversational-mode-to-pra...

There is also an project at RPI for people to learn Chinese in a virtual Chinese setting with characters who speak Chinese: https://research.rpi.edu/about/signature-research-thrusts/me... "Students learn to speak Chinese through the Mandarin Project’s virtual reality, synthetic intelligent characters and gamification."

It is also harder to learn a language when the people you are talking to want to learn or practice yours and so are motivated to speak your language to you. So as a consolation prize, maybe you have helped some Berliners become better English speakers? :-)

Age may also have to do something with language learning -- but not as people expect. When people are young, they are often less embarrassed by making mistakes, and are full of enthusiasm for something new, and they way they are taught is usually point and name and speak and question. Adults tend to try to avoid mistakes, may have other more interesting or important things to do, and also may end up in boring textual drill-and-practice rote learning situations. Those are some of the reasons it is harder to learn languages (especially a first foreign language) as an adult.

A related funny XKCD on simulation and learning (where Kerbal Space Program makes a seemingly difficult learning challenge fun when done in private and also has no significant consequences for mistakes so you can play around with ideas like a kid again): "Orbital Mechanics" https://xkcd.com/1356/

Some people are just also better than others at languages for whatever reasons.

Also, sometimes immersion in a context for a length of time just makes the difference. One of my German teachers in High School talked about studying abroad in Germany when younger and speaking only German where they were, and they said they felt a real turning point was when they had their first dream in German. I'm guessing maybe you must be in a situation where you can still speak English or whatever your native language is at work and at home, and so speaking German just is not that important to your daily life?

Anyway, wishing you some dreams "auf Deutsch" if you want them. :-)