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Amazon grows to over 750k robots, replacing 100k humans

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Re: Amazon grows to over 750k robots, replacing 100k humans

#51

Post by Loughla »

capybara_2020 wrote: post #37
techdmn wrote: post #20

About 20 years ago I was a programmer at a manufacturing company. I worked on a project to automate part of materials requirements planning. The woman who was in charge of it was spending about 20 hours per week wrangling Excel spreadsheets to figure out what materials they needed. It was all based on data we had: inventory, orders, etc. A few weeks later, and with a fair amount of her help, I'd automated the whole t…

Assuming the world is moving towards more automation and high skilled(not sure this is the right term. But places where you need to be more adaptable and think more) jobs. Also assuming for a moment todays adults are the transitionary generation. How do we prepare the next generation for what is to come? It feels like schools are still stuck in the industrial age. How do we teach them not math and science but the act…

>How do we teach them not math and science but the actual act of learning/adapting.

This is literally what they're trying to do. People complain about the way things like math (concepts instead of rote memorization of facts) and spelling (stems and etymology instead of rote memorization) are taught. People complain that kids aren't learning cursive and other things like that.

But schools are trying to teach critical thinking and how to reason your way through problems, rather than blanket "facts".

Re: Amazon grows to over 750k robots, replacing 100k humans

#52

Post by air7 »

It's clear that technological development creates a shift in jobs, i.e some jobs are lost, but new ones are created as a result. Whether the total #jobs increases or decreases is debatable.

The issue that I see addressed less often is that the new jobs require by definition, a higher skill set. (You wouldn't displace 100 manual labor workers with a machine that requires 105 workers to maintain). So by definition, the average intelligence requirement for jobs increases over time (though never stated directly). This means that as time and technology progress, a growing percentage of people will have no jobs that they are capable of doing. [o]

What's the proper social response to that, I don't know.

[o] If and when AGI comes along, that will be all of us.

Re: Amazon grows to over 750k robots, replacing 100k humans

#53

Post by JaimeThompson »

onion2k wrote: post #28
kypro wrote: post #15

I assume this is being upvoted because HN thinks this is good? At least that's what I hear in AI threads... AI just allows humans to work more efficiently right? The few fulfilment center workers left are probably now 100x fulfilment workers now that they can manage a fleet of robotic workers instead of human ones. As HN says, these types of innovations historically only create new job opportunities so there's probab…

Amazon's role in society is not to provide menial jobs to keep people busy though. If anything, the automation provides good, innovative jobs in robotics. Those are the sorts of jobs I think everyone should have. Leave fetching and carrying to robots, and educate people to be useful in more meaningful, fulfilling, and impactful ways. Suggesting that robots are bad because they take jobs from people doing horrible, bo…

>just says that you want people to carry on doing that work

Or that we don't want them to starve. We are talking about the US where their isn't really an effective solution to help people without jobs.

Re: Amazon grows to over 750k robots, replacing 100k humans

#54

Post by exitb »

air7 wrote: post #52

It's clear that technological development creates a shift in jobs, i.e some jobs are lost, but new ones are created as a result. Whether the total #jobs increases or decreases is debatable. The issue that I see addressed less often is that the new jobs require by definition, a higher skill set. (You wouldn't displace 100 manual labor workers with a machine that requires 105 workers to maintain). So by definition, the…

Jobs are a byproduct of capital owners needing labor to sell things and services with a profit margin, so they can buy the good stuff. I’d argue that once the capital owners possess the technology that brings the cost of labor near zero, they will have no need for an economy at all, not to mention other people - unless it’s something more akin to a zoo.

Re: Amazon grows to over 750k robots, replacing 100k humans

#55

Post by acestus5 »

exitb wrote: post #54
air7 wrote: post #52

It's clear that technological development creates a shift in jobs, i.e some jobs are lost, but new ones are created as a result. Whether the total #jobs increases or decreases is debatable. The issue that I see addressed less often is that the new jobs require by definition, a higher skill set. (You wouldn't displace 100 manual labor workers with a machine that requires 105 workers to maintain). So by definition, the…

Jobs are a byproduct of capital owners needing labor to sell things and services with a profit margin, so they can buy the good stuff. I’d argue that once the capital owners possess the technology that brings the cost of labor near zero, they will have no need for an economy at all, not to mention other people - unless it’s something more akin to a zoo.

This reminds me of the Chinese white monkey jobs.

Re: Amazon grows to over 750k robots, replacing 100k humans

#56

Post by LadyCailin »

tacocataco wrote: post #41
okasaki wrote: post #2

> The significant investment in robotics showcases Amazon’s commitment to innovation in its supply chain and highlights the company’s belief in the synergistic potential of human-robot collaboration. Despite the massive scale of automation, Amazon emphasizes that deploying robots has led to the creation of new skilled job categories at the company, reflecting a broader industry trend toward the integration of advance…

Maybe robots should pay taxes like humans since they are taking the jobs and the tax base that goes along with them.

That’s too hard to do. What is “a robot” and “a job?” Replacing workers is easy enough to calculate that with, but what if I start a brand new factory that only ever used robots? The solution is wealth tax and UBI.

Get rid of regular income tax, then do a progressive wealth tax, which is enough to pay for a progressive UBI. This way, it’s no problem if you lay off all your workers to replace them with robots. In fact that’s great! Because now these people have a UBI, which frees them up to go find (or make) other work. Meanwhile the factory owner’s taxes should be going up, since his wealth is going up since he doesn’t have to pay all the workers, unless he’s still spending that money to further invest in things, which is also great.

The biggest problem really is people just hoarding wealth. If they are spending or investing it, then that’s not a problem.

Re: Amazon grows to over 750k robots, replacing 100k humans

#57

Post by naveen99 »

WillAdams wrote: post #49
throwaway48476 wrote: post #7

But will the robots be given piss bottles?

When I worked in an Amazon Warehouse, while a bathroom break was considered time-off-task, it wasn't a big deal to use the bathroom (or take some other break) whenever one wished. https://old.reddit.com/r/EDC/comments/dmnuts/53mamazon_fulfi... Basically, it was just a gym membership which I got paid for (and couldn't skip out on beyond what my available time off facilitated).

Maybe jobs that require moving around should be split into 2 hr shifts, and then people with sedentary jobs can moonlight for getting in their cardio, instead of paying a gym, or walking pointlessly.

Re: Amazon grows to over 750k robots, replacing 100k humans

#58

Post by Nimitz14 »

seper8 wrote: post #39
VHRanger wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We've been saying that for a long time. [Keynes predicted we'd be working 15 hour weeks by now]( https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ecca.12439 ) The thing is, people don't actually want to tradeoff their labor time for leisure time all that well. They value consumption too much. There are plenty of 15 hour jobs out there. You can get one right now! But you'd need to have a smaller appartment, an older c…

How detached from reality are you that you think people can make ends meet while working 15 hours a week?

Some people do do that. Try stepping outside of your bubble.

Re: Amazon grows to over 750k robots, replacing 100k humans

#59

Post by simonw »

techdmn wrote: post #20

About 20 years ago I was a programmer at a manufacturing company. I worked on a project to automate part of materials requirements planning. The woman who was in charge of it was spending about 20 hours per week wrangling Excel spreadsheets to figure out what materials they needed. It was all based on data we had: inventory, orders, etc. A few weeks later, and with a fair amount of her help, I'd automated the whole t…

I have been contributing to open source software for more than 20 years. My contributions have always been to help save other developers time.

How does the impact from that on jobs differ from the impact had by AI tools like LLMs or robotic automation?

It certainly /feels/ different, but I'm having a little bit of trouble explaining why.

Re: Amazon grows to over 750k robots, replacing 100k humans

#60

Post by JumpCrisscross »

exitb wrote: post #54
air7 wrote: post #52

It's clear that technological development creates a shift in jobs, i.e some jobs are lost, but new ones are created as a result. Whether the total #jobs increases or decreases is debatable. The issue that I see addressed less often is that the new jobs require by definition, a higher skill set. (You wouldn't displace 100 manual labor workers with a machine that requires 105 workers to maintain). So by definition, the…

Jobs are a byproduct of capital owners needing labor to sell things and services with a profit margin, so they can buy the good stuff. I’d argue that once the capital owners possess the technology that brings the cost of labor near zero, they will have no need for an economy at all, not to mention other people - unless it’s something more akin to a zoo.

> once the capital owners possess the technology that brings the cost of labor near zero

Most Americans are capital owners. You’re describing a world in which most Americans live in a utopia.

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