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Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

nytimes.com

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Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#71

Post by usrusr »

guappa wrote: post #42
eigenspace wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Presumably they were just giving an example. The huge spike in German energy costs absolutely did push manufacturers to find ways to be more energy efficient in a very similar way it pushed regular consumers to also be more conscious of their energy use.

This usually means closing shop and opening in a company where energy is cheaper and the government lets you pollute as much as you want.

That happens, but it's far from the whole picture. When energy is cheap you grow a lot of low hanging fruit savings not taken that suddenly become worthwhile when prices rise. Market economy is ruthless about optimisation, and when a change from a wasteful process to a less wasteful process is even the tiniest bit more expensive to perform than just paying for the extra energy, then market economy dictates that it's not done.

Artificially increasing energy price can actually make an economy more competitive in the log run, when at one point in the future energy price will rise anyways. Even if we did not have any CO2 disposal problem, the era of fossil fuels would still end some day. Perhaps not even that far in the future, because imagine how much faster consumption would have risen in absence of any CO2 considerations.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#72

Post by pastage »

puszczyk wrote: post #51
Rinzler89 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I am driving an electric car in Germany now and I built a new home Most people in Germany can't afford to buy an apartment let alone build a new house and you're taking as if your situation si representative for the average German. Just because you're wealthy enough to afford a new EV and to build a new modern house, doesn't eman Germany has no problems. You're proving the point that ecology is a tax on the poor, a…

> Most people in Germany can't afford to buy an apartment let alone build a new house and you're taking as if your situation si representative for the average German. - 2.84 million people in Germany were able to afford a new car in 2023 [0] - 1.25 million dwellings were constructed in 10y 2011-2021 [1] - The homeownership rate in Germany is very low compared to other countries but still around 50% [2] While parent's…

80% of new cars are bought by companies or in leasing agreements in Sweden, most people buy used cars. Doesn't matter that much for you point, but it does affect what people can buy.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#73

Post by conjecTech »

nradov wrote: post #61
skrebbel wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A country’s energy production is driven mostly by demand. Your argument is “Germans use less energy, therefore it’s going badly”. I think this is a very outdated worldview, equating energy consumption with growth. There’s been lots of technology development across the board that lets people have the same comfort, or businesses the same production, with lower energy consumption. I don't think you can just assume that…

Has anyone figured out how to reduce the energy demand for refining aluminum or manufacturing ammonium nitrate? Efficiency gains in things like lighting, heating, and ground transport are nice but those only go so far. Heavy industry will always require enormous energy inputs.

Smelting recycled aluminum uses only about 3% of the energy as creating it from raw ore. So yes, recycling allows us to do that more efficiently.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#74

Post by smallmancontrov »

eigenspace wrote: post #52
smallmancontrov wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably a bit, but there is only so much juice to be squeezed out of the efficiency stone and it's hard to squeeze. It takes time and money and wherever the math penciled out comfortably it already happened. If drops in energy consumption happen quickly, deeply, or on a budget then it's probably demand destruction, not efficiency gain.

Check the numbers. Germany's economic output didn't shrink nearly as much as its energy usage did. For highly energy-intensive, low-value-added sectors like producing fertilizer and other chemicals, yes I agree, but in a lot of other sectors there are huge efficiency gains to be made that were never pursued because it wasn't worth it. If you have an old, inefficient appliance (e.g. an incandescent lightbulb) and elec…

> Germany's economic output didn't shrink nearly as much as its energy usage did.

So the demand destruction happened in the most energy intensive and lowest value-added sectors, which make up less than 100% of the economy. That's what I would expect, it's not a contradiction. If a hawk eats the slowest lizard, the lizard population gets faster -- but not because any individual lizard got faster.

I hope your conclusion is correct, but your reasoning around the alternative hypothesis isn't.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#75

Post by orwin »

Rinzler89 wrote: post #54
puszczyk wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Most people in Germany can't afford to buy an apartment let alone build a new house and you're taking as if your situation si representative for the average German. - 2.84 million people in Germany were able to afford a new car in 2023 [0] - 1.25 million dwellings were constructed in 10y 2011-2021 [1] - The homeownership rate in Germany is very low compared to other countries but still around 50% [2] While parent's…

>Parent commented on their energy usage change over the years, not on wealth or problems. Where does you comment come from? Because policies on being eco-friendly is a matter of wealth. Wealthy countries and wealthy people are less effective by switching off fossil fuel dependency and can afford to be green without major sacrifices to their finances or their lifestyle. Poorer countries and people are hit the hardest.

One of my friend who work at a call center (clearly not wealthy) changed her main transportation vehicle to an electric bike ~6 month ago (just before winter, she's crazy), andshe told me last weekend that this was a net positive in every aspect, on her mood, on her routine (she has to be mindful of the weather), on her money, and on her fitness. She also go out more, since she go through the city center/harbor when biking to her job, and it's easier to stop at our bar (weirdly the bike parking infrastructure is way behind the bike lane infrastructure in our city, which makes parking with bike almost as bad as parking with a car nowadays).

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#76

Post by pfdietz »

nradov wrote: post #61
skrebbel wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A country’s energy production is driven mostly by demand. Your argument is “Germans use less energy, therefore it’s going badly”. I think this is a very outdated worldview, equating energy consumption with growth. There’s been lots of technology development across the board that lets people have the same comfort, or businesses the same production, with lower energy consumption. I don't think you can just assume that…

Has anyone figured out how to reduce the energy demand for refining aluminum or manufacturing ammonium nitrate? Efficiency gains in things like lighting, heating, and ground transport are nice but those only go so far. Heavy industry will always require enormous energy inputs.

Those are things that will be done where energy is cheaper. For example, making ammonia in Europe makes little sense when natural gas is so much more expensive there than in the US or the Mideast.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#77

Post by Archelaos »

roenxi wrote: post #5

Germany's energy production is below 1970s levels and their per capita figures are in a grim state [0]. As with much of Europe, it makes for worrying reading. It would be extremely impressive if they can remain a manufacturing leader through this. If there is less energy, someone will have to use less energy. As far as I can tell that means either compromising living standards or giving up some heavy manufacturing. I…

This reasoning is a too simple. It does not take the increase of energy effiency into account. On the contrary, these figures are proof of enormous success in this respect.

As of 2022, the German production industry (excl. construction) had a share of 23.5% of GDP[1]. For the US it was only 11% in 2023.[2] I would not argue that one is better than the other. It first of all demonstrates a remarkable difference between the two economies.

Another one is the legacy of the German reunification. If one wants to assess the performace of the German economy in the last 35 years, one should take into account that a lot of investments had been made by the German state to bring up the infrastructure of the Eastern part (about 25% of the population) to a Western European standard. Eastern Germany is in a much better shape now than any other Eastern European region. And this investment is just starting to generate returns.

[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/295519/germany-share-of-...

[2] https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-u-s-gdp-by-indu...

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#78

Post by Rinzler89 »

mmarq wrote: post #69
Rinzler89 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I am driving an electric car in Germany now and I built a new home Most people in Germany can't afford to buy an apartment let alone build a new house and you're taking as if your situation si representative for the average German. Just because you're wealthy enough to afford a new EV and to build a new modern house, doesn't eman Germany has no problems. You're proving the point that ecology is a tax on the poor, a…

> Most people in Germany can't afford to buy an apartment Most people in Germany don’t buy the apartments they live in, because renting in Germany gives you more or less the same rights as owning a leasehold flat in the UK. If you really want to buy a flat, tax-wise it is more convenient to rent it out and rent another one to live in. In many cities there are rent control mechanisms that make renting extremely cheape…

Owning gives you the advantage of not flushing away a third of your income down the drain and instead owning something that's yours by the time you retire instead of paying your landlord's lease and then retiring in poverty as you won't be able to afford rent on your pension.

Have you seen new rent prices right now? It's definitely not "extremely cheap". It's only extremely cheap for those in grandfathered contracts.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#79

Post by pfdietz »

panick21_ wrote: post #37
roenxi wrote: post #5

Germany's energy production is below 1970s levels and their per capita figures are in a grim state [0]. As with much of Europe, it makes for worrying reading. It would be extremely impressive if they can remain a manufacturing leader through this. If there is less energy, someone will have to use less energy. As far as I can tell that means either compromising living standards or giving up some heavy manufacturing. I…

They should have built nuclear plants instead of ripping them down.

This wouldn't have helped replace fossil fuels when competing with cheaper energy elsewhere.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#80

Post by thelastgallon »

roenxi wrote: post #5

Germany's energy production is below 1970s levels and their per capita figures are in a grim state [0]. As with much of Europe, it makes for worrying reading. It would be extremely impressive if they can remain a manufacturing leader through this. If there is less energy, someone will have to use less energy. As far as I can tell that means either compromising living standards or giving up some heavy manufacturing. I…

> Germany's energy production is below 1970s levels and their per capita figures are in a grim state

Two thirds of energy from fossil fuels is wasted[1,2]. Renewables don't have wasted heat. Germany has been going green for a while, energy production does not give us a full picture.

From: https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/electrification-en... "This is shown in the chart below. It plots global final energy demand today2 compared to a ‘post-transition’ energy system where suitable sectors are electrified, and the rest is fuelled by hydrogen.

Electricity demand does increase – from 110 to 189 EJ, but total energy demand drops from 416 to 247 exajoules (EJ)."

[1]https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/ [2] https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/10/energy-loss-is-si...

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