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Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

nytimes.com

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Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#41

Post by smallmancontrov »

eigenspace wrote: post #36
throwaway220033 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Congrats being an exemplary citizen but how does your electric car and cargo bike play role in Germany's manufacturing?

Presumably they were just giving an example. The huge spike in German energy costs absolutely did push manufacturers to find ways to be more energy efficient in a very similar way it pushed regular consumers to also be more conscious of their energy use.

Probably a bit, but there is only so much juice to be squeezed out of the efficiency stone and it's hard to squeeze. It takes time and money and wherever the math penciled out comfortably it already happened. If drops in energy consumption happen quickly, deeply, or on a budget then it's probably demand destruction, not efficiency gain.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#42

Post by guappa »

eigenspace wrote: post #36
throwaway220033 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Congrats being an exemplary citizen but how does your electric car and cargo bike play role in Germany's manufacturing?

Presumably they were just giving an example. The huge spike in German energy costs absolutely did push manufacturers to find ways to be more energy efficient in a very similar way it pushed regular consumers to also be more conscious of their energy use.

This usually means closing shop and opening in a company where energy is cheaper and the government lets you pollute as much as you want.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#43

Post by PurpleRamen »

roenxi wrote: post #5

Germany's energy production is below 1970s levels and their per capita figures are in a grim state [0]. As with much of Europe, it makes for worrying reading. It would be extremely impressive if they can remain a manufacturing leader through this. If there is less energy, someone will have to use less energy. As far as I can tell that means either compromising living standards or giving up some heavy manufacturing. I…

> Germany's energy production is below 1970s levels and their per capita figures are in a grim state [0].

Usage and harvesting has become significant more efficient in the last decades. And the changing climate demands for less consumption in certain areas. Outsourcing of lower levels of production has likely removed a significant amount of consumption too.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#44

Post by SonicTheSith »

Rinzler89 wrote: post #33
dependsontheq wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It really makes no sense to look at per capita figures this way. I am driving an electric car in Germany now and I built a new home with better insulation and I have LED lights. My per capita figures went way down, I am also taking my cargo bike in the city everywhere, so my per capita figures went down again. There's a very relevant question about the viability of energy intensive industries in Germany, but even tha…

> I am driving an electric car in Germany now and I built a new home Most people in Germany can't afford to buy an apartment let alone build a new house and you're taking as if your situation si representative for the average German. Just because you're wealthy enough to afford a new EV and to build a new modern house, doesn't eman Germany has no problems. You're proving the point that ecology is a tax on the poor, a…

Even older homes, compared to the average US home is highly insulated.

I live in an Apartment building from 1964, got doubled sided windows, and during the winter I do not need to turn on any heating on 98% of the days. And the quality of housing there is no difference between owning and renting....

Now even the worst insulated homes, are not that far off. Sure there are some very very bad apartments for rent, but those are in the minority.

sure not many can afford an EV, but there is also a large part of the population does not own a car at all, because of public transit which is a way better reduction in the energy requirements per person. There are even a lot of people that own a car but go to work using public transit.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#45

Post by guappa »

lenerdenator wrote: post #21
roenxi wrote: post #5

Germany's energy production is below 1970s levels and their per capita figures are in a grim state [0]. As with much of Europe, it makes for worrying reading. It would be extremely impressive if they can remain a manufacturing leader through this. If there is less energy, someone will have to use less energy. As far as I can tell that means either compromising living standards or giving up some heavy manufacturing. I…

> German politicians should have taken their energy security more seriously back in the 2010s. Energy security AND national security. It was insane to build an economy on natural gas from a country with a long history of imperialism and autocracy, but Germans did it anyways. To be fair, the US did much the same with China with regards to manufacturing. The US was begging its NATO allies across the Atlantic to have a…

The USA is not in a position to criticize… All of the computers are made abroad. I doubt banning Huawei will solve anything, if a foreign power has decided to inject malicious instructions into the hardware.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#46

Post by sofixa »

lenerdenator wrote: post #21
roenxi wrote: post #5

Germany's energy production is below 1970s levels and their per capita figures are in a grim state [0]. As with much of Europe, it makes for worrying reading. It would be extremely impressive if they can remain a manufacturing leader through this. If there is less energy, someone will have to use less energy. As far as I can tell that means either compromising living standards or giving up some heavy manufacturing. I…

> German politicians should have taken their energy security more seriously back in the 2010s. Energy security AND national security. It was insane to build an economy on natural gas from a country with a long history of imperialism and autocracy, but Germans did it anyways. To be fair, the US did much the same with China with regards to manufacturing. The US was begging its NATO allies across the Atlantic to have a…

> Energy security AND national security. It was insane to build an economy on natural gas from a country with a long history of imperialism and autocracy, but Germans did it anyways

This is hilarious because absolutely the same argument could be applied to most of Europe getting closely integrated economically with Germany through organisations such as the European Coal and Steel Community, European Economic Area, European Union. Germany is a nation with a long history of imperialism and autocracy, why did they do it? Was France stupid to risk depending on a country that invaded them thrice in the last century?

The general hope was that economic integration will lead to closer relations and liberalisation in Russia (like it did in most of Eastern Europe). It sadly didn't happen, but it wasn't that out of the question.

> The US was begging its NATO allies across the Atlantic to have a more skeptical view of Russia for most of the 90s and 00s, not just 10s, and concerns were brushed off as the ramblings of unsophisticated cowboys

Yes, because the US was doing this even when Russia was on its best behaviour, so it really really looked like nobody in the US had remembered to update the "who to be scared of" instructions. Now they have and they won't fucking shut up about China, which is annoying, same as it was back when it was about Russia.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#47

Post by SonicTheSith »

kennethwolters wrote: post #32
dependsontheq wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It really makes no sense to look at per capita figures this way. I am driving an electric car in Germany now and I built a new home with better insulation and I have LED lights. My per capita figures went way down, I am also taking my cargo bike in the city everywhere, so my per capita figures went down again. There's a very relevant question about the viability of energy intensive industries in Germany, but even tha…

I think the main point was that it is bad that Germany produces less energy over the decades. And that manufacturing in Germany might disappear as a consequence, which would be bad for Germany.

The thing is, we got an european energy market...

just because Germany produces less does not mean there is less energy available...

would be the same as saying that since california does not produce enough energy on its own, its industries are doomed...

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#48

Post by Rinzler89 »

SonicTheSith wrote: post #44
Rinzler89 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I am driving an electric car in Germany now and I built a new home Most people in Germany can't afford to buy an apartment let alone build a new house and you're taking as if your situation si representative for the average German. Just because you're wealthy enough to afford a new EV and to build a new modern house, doesn't eman Germany has no problems. You're proving the point that ecology is a tax on the poor, a…

Even older homes, compared to the average US home is highly insulated. I live in an Apartment building from 1964, got doubled sided windows, and during the winter I do not need to turn on any heating on 98% of the days. And the quality of housing there is no difference between owning and renting.... Now even the worst insulated homes, are not that far off. Sure there are some very very bad apartments for rent, but th…

>Even older homes, compared to the average US home is highly insulated.

Why are you comparing apples to oranges? Germans don't care what it's like in America since it doesn't lower their energy bills.

America can afford to be wasteful with energy, since it's energy independent, has much cheaper energy than Germany, including oil, gas, and nuclear, and has higher incomes. Germany doesn't. Cheap Russian gas is gone and their nuclear also so of course their energy is much more expensive to the point it affects industry and consumers more than in the US.

>but there is also a large part of the population does not own a car at al

Passenger car ownership has reached record highs in Germany. Outside of big dense cities with great public transport like Berlin where car owners are in the minority, the majority of people own a car statistically.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#49

Post by holgerschurig »

roenxi wrote: post #5

Germany's energy production is below 1970s levels and their per capita figures are in a grim state [0]. As with much of Europe, it makes for worrying reading. It would be extremely impressive if they can remain a manufacturing leader through this. If there is less energy, someone will have to use less energy. As far as I can tell that means either compromising living standards or giving up some heavy manufacturing. I…

> and their per capita figures are in a grim state

- and Germany is one of the european countries with okayish inflation rate, most other european countries are far worse https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate%20-...

- and it's by now economic-wise at position #3 of the world ranking, now even before Japan (which has twice the amount of inhabitants). If you look up Germany on a real globe, you'll notice how tiny it actually is

- the unemployment rate is quite low (especially given that people like you call the econimic sitation a "grim state") https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1224/umfrage/... --- it's actually lower than in the years then people Germany "the locomotive of europe"

- the stock index "DAX" for german stock company is at an all-time high https://www.finanzen.net/index/dax

So really, the worrying thing here is that people tend to think binary. Either Germany is super-strong, even too strong for it's neighbors. Or it is too weak, so that people actually worry. In my book, both views are extreme and don't replicate reality.

> It would be extremely impressive if they can remain a manufacturing leader through this

There is no indication that this will change. Examples: Germany's battery production has doubled in the last year. And there is no end in sight --- https://www.produktion.de/technik/co2-neutrale-industrie/bat...

For the solar industry, I identify two reasons of the decline:

- first, the "high" of the german solar industry was based on subsidies. That meant that the companies build plants ... but they didn't really optimize the costs. Once this large scale subsidies were reduced, the industry wasn't competitive

- second, the EU is blind on subsidies done in China. Over there, they have a weird conglomerate of socialism and capitalism. Basically the companies, even when privately owned, are still under control of the chines communist party. And the party decides that "this industry is vital, we push it so squelch abroad competition". They do this e.g. by heavy state investments. The EU turns a blind eye here, they don't ask for tariffs that equalize the market situation for the various competitors. Similarly, market access is asynchronous. If an abroad company wants to make a plant there, they have to accept a Chinese partner --- which will do industry espionage. Whereas Chinese companies buying or making plants in Europe (or USA etc) aren't required to have a local partner.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#50

Post by iammjm »

kennethwolters wrote: post #8

This is a classic story where Germans are amazing at doing the R&D on something but are squeezed so hard while scaling, that technologically less sophisticated competitors take over and dominate the market. Imagine what German engineering could push into the market if it weren't for this self-flagellation. Maybe it is time again for German engineers and scientists to emigrate to greener pastures.

Part of the problem is the conservatives blocking the investments because they believe any debt is super bad
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