Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

nytimes.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

51–60 of 135 posts

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#51

Post by puszczyk »

Rinzler89 wrote: post #33
dependsontheq wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It really makes no sense to look at per capita figures this way. I am driving an electric car in Germany now and I built a new home with better insulation and I have LED lights. My per capita figures went way down, I am also taking my cargo bike in the city everywhere, so my per capita figures went down again. There's a very relevant question about the viability of energy intensive industries in Germany, but even tha…

> I am driving an electric car in Germany now and I built a new home Most people in Germany can't afford to buy an apartment let alone build a new house and you're taking as if your situation si representative for the average German. Just because you're wealthy enough to afford a new EV and to build a new modern house, doesn't eman Germany has no problems. You're proving the point that ecology is a tax on the poor, a…

> Most people in Germany can't afford to buy an apartment let alone build a new house and you're taking as if your situation si representative for the average German.

- 2.84 million people in Germany were able to afford a new car in 2023 [0] - 1.25 million dwellings were constructed in 10y 2011-2021 [1] - The homeownership rate in Germany is very low compared to other countries but still around 50% [2]

While parent's situation is likely above the median, it doesn't mean it is not representative.

> Just because you're wealthy enough to afford a new EV and to build a new modern house, doesn't eman Germany has no problems.

Parent commented on their energy usage change over the years, not on wealth or problems. Where does you comment come from?

Also, what's your point?

[0]: https://www.statista.com/statistics/587730/new-car-registrat... [1]: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Society-Environment/Housin... [2]: https://www.statista.com/statistics/246355/home-ownership-ra...

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#52

Post by eigenspace »

smallmancontrov wrote: post #41
eigenspace wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Presumably they were just giving an example. The huge spike in German energy costs absolutely did push manufacturers to find ways to be more energy efficient in a very similar way it pushed regular consumers to also be more conscious of their energy use.

Probably a bit, but there is only so much juice to be squeezed out of the efficiency stone and it's hard to squeeze. It takes time and money and wherever the math penciled out comfortably it already happened. If drops in energy consumption happen quickly, deeply, or on a budget then it's probably demand destruction, not efficiency gain.

Check the numbers. Germany's economic output didn't shrink nearly as much as its energy usage did. For highly energy-intensive, low-value-added sectors like producing fertilizer and other chemicals, yes I agree, but in a lot of other sectors there are huge efficiency gains to be made that were never pursued because it wasn't worth it.

If you have an old, inefficient appliance (e.g. an incandescent lightbulb) and electricity is cheap, then it makes perfect economic sense to just keep operating the appliance and only replace it with a newer more efficient model once it actually breaks down. If electricity prices suddenly triple (which they did for a brief time in Germany), suddenly it starts making a lot of sense to start moving up the replacement date for those older less efficient appliances.

Don't get me wrong, the energy shock was indeed quite economically harmful to Germany, but saying that pure demand destruction is the only thing that explains a drop in electricity usage is just wrong.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#53

Post by jddj »

faeriechangling wrote: post #39
jddj wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Without speaking to whether or not it's valid conjecture, it's become necessary to treat any Germany is dying material with a little extra skepticism due to it being used as a polemic talking point about what happens when you go all in on renewables, etc.

It’s also probable per capita energy usage will decline no matter what we do because affordable fossil fuel stocks are due to collapse before the population does. Increasing per capita energy usage as a policy goal seems profoundly unwise to me, even without accounting for global warming, and if we do it becomes even less wise.

I don't know how much, in Germany's case, but some fraction of energy usage is wasted.

We saw European customers start paying attention to wasted consumption almost overnight when electricity prices hit the news and some of those changes have persisted for now.

That's without considering efficiency improvements. Both would drive down per capita without implying reduced output

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#54

Post by Rinzler89 »

puszczyk wrote: post #51
Rinzler89 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I am driving an electric car in Germany now and I built a new home Most people in Germany can't afford to buy an apartment let alone build a new house and you're taking as if your situation si representative for the average German. Just because you're wealthy enough to afford a new EV and to build a new modern house, doesn't eman Germany has no problems. You're proving the point that ecology is a tax on the poor, a…

> Most people in Germany can't afford to buy an apartment let alone build a new house and you're taking as if your situation si representative for the average German. - 2.84 million people in Germany were able to afford a new car in 2023 [0] - 1.25 million dwellings were constructed in 10y 2011-2021 [1] - The homeownership rate in Germany is very low compared to other countries but still around 50% [2] While parent's…

>Parent commented on their energy usage change over the years, not on wealth or problems. Where does you comment come from?

Because policies on being eco-friendly is a matter of wealth. Wealthy countries and wealthy people are less effective by switching off fossil fuel dependency and can afford to be green without major sacrifices to their finances or their lifestyle. Poorer countries and people are hit the hardest.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#55

Post by nradov »

faeriechangling wrote: post #39
jddj wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Without speaking to whether or not it's valid conjecture, it's become necessary to treat any Germany is dying material with a little extra skepticism due to it being used as a polemic talking point about what happens when you go all in on renewables, etc.

It’s also probable per capita energy usage will decline no matter what we do because affordable fossil fuel stocks are due to collapse before the population does. Increasing per capita energy usage as a policy goal seems profoundly unwise to me, even without accounting for global warming, and if we do it becomes even less wise.

Throughout human history, increases in per capita energy consumption have been directly coupled with increases in living standards. Perhaps we will see some decoupling between those metrics, but I doubt it.

And while there are good environmental reasons to reduce fossil fuel use we are in no danger of running out of affordable stocks. Alarmists have been predicting "peak oil" for decades but the extraction industry keeps improving their technology.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#56

Post by holgerschurig »

roenxi wrote: post #5

Germany's energy production is below 1970s levels and their per capita figures are in a grim state [0]. As with much of Europe, it makes for worrying reading. It would be extremely impressive if they can remain a manufacturing leader through this. If there is less energy, someone will have to use less energy. As far as I can tell that means either compromising living standards or giving up some heavy manufacturing. I…

> German politicians should have taken their energy security more seriously back in the 2010s

Well, any country.

Did you know that Poland imported most of their fossil fuels from Russia also?

Or, that today, Bulgaria still imports all (that is, 100% !!!) oil from Russia?

People like to blame Germany, and they point to North Stream. Few people looked at a map of oil and gas pipelines of Europe ... noticing that MOST of them are in eastern- and southern europe. All of europe depended on cheap russian fossil energy, not just Germany.

Map of oil & gas pipelines, centered on central and western europe:

https://theodora.com/pipelines/europe_oil_gas_and_products_p...

Only gas pipelines, but showing eastern europe much better. Note that the amount of pipelines in Germany seems to be higher ... but also notice that a good part of them run from the northsea towards the industrial areas. The pipeline system was never designed to be run solely by Russian fossil fuel, unlike the ones in eastern europe countries.

http://www.mappery.com/maps/Europe-Proposed-Natural-Gas-Pipe...

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#57

Post by jamil7 »

> Before China came to dominate the solar panel industry, Germany led the way. It was the world’s largest producer of solar panels, with several start-ups clustered in the former East Germany, until about a decade ago when China ramped up production and undercut just about everyone on price

It was also around a decade ago that the conservative government in Germany basically killed the solar industry.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#58

Post by majoe »

roenxi wrote: post #5

Germany's energy production is below 1970s levels and their per capita figures are in a grim state [0]. As with much of Europe, it makes for worrying reading. It would be extremely impressive if they can remain a manufacturing leader through this. If there is less energy, someone will have to use less energy. As far as I can tell that means either compromising living standards or giving up some heavy manufacturing. I…

To add to what others already commented. The EU has been setting energy efficiency targets for itself for several decades now. In the most recent update to that target "EU countries will be required to achieve an average annual energy savings rate of 1.49% from 2024 to 2030" [0].

So it's not that surprising, that Germany's energy production is sinking, it is required to do so.

[0]: https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/energy-efficiency/energy-...

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#59

Post by wewxjfq »

roenxi wrote: post #5

Germany's energy production is below 1970s levels and their per capita figures are in a grim state [0]. As with much of Europe, it makes for worrying reading. It would be extremely impressive if they can remain a manufacturing leader through this. If there is less energy, someone will have to use less energy. As far as I can tell that means either compromising living standards or giving up some heavy manufacturing. I…

The 1970s had several energy crises and Western countries went from wasteful energy consumption to energy conservation in an effort to strengthen their energy security.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#60

Post by Gravityloss »

jamil7 wrote: post #57

> Before China came to dominate the solar panel industry, Germany led the way. It was the world’s largest producer of solar panels, with several start-ups clustered in the former East Germany, until about a decade ago when China ramped up production and undercut just about everyone on price It was also around a decade ago that the conservative government in Germany basically killed the solar industry.

I have seen comments that it was a German industry to export solar panel factories. Those technologies of course move forward and I assume nowadays China does its own development.
Post reply on HN