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Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

nytimes.com

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Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#21

Post by lenerdenator »

roenxi wrote: post #5

Germany's energy production is below 1970s levels and their per capita figures are in a grim state [0]. As with much of Europe, it makes for worrying reading. It would be extremely impressive if they can remain a manufacturing leader through this. If there is less energy, someone will have to use less energy. As far as I can tell that means either compromising living standards or giving up some heavy manufacturing. I…

> German politicians should have taken their energy security more seriously back in the 2010s.

Energy security AND national security. It was insane to build an economy on natural gas from a country with a long history of imperialism and autocracy, but Germans did it anyways. To be fair, the US did much the same with China with regards to manufacturing.

The US was begging its NATO allies across the Atlantic to have a more skeptical view of Russia for most of the 90s and 00s, not just 10s, and concerns were brushed off as the ramblings of unsophisticated cowboys. I remember talking to Germans in January 2022 who still thought that the Russians wouldn't invade Ukraine.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#22

Post by jddj »

_Microft wrote: post #10
roenxi wrote: post #5

Germany's energy production is below 1970s levels and their per capita figures are in a grim state [0]. As with much of Europe, it makes for worrying reading. It would be extremely impressive if they can remain a manufacturing leader through this. If there is less energy, someone will have to use less energy. As far as I can tell that means either compromising living standards or giving up some heavy manufacturing. I…

Add a few other countries to the list and see how their curves look almost the same as Germany's... (The situation is not much different on the other graphs) https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/per-capita-energy-use?tab... Edit: Here's the same (semi-randomly chosen) set of countries, applied to the same article (see parents [0]-link) in full: https://ourworldindata.org/energy/country/germany?country=DE...

Without speaking to whether or not it's valid conjecture, it's become necessary to treat any Germany is dying material with a little extra skepticism due to it being used as a polemic talking point about what happens when you go all in on renewables, etc.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#23

Post by mk89 »

roenxi wrote: post #5

Germany's energy production is below 1970s levels and their per capita figures are in a grim state [0]. As with much of Europe, it makes for worrying reading. It would be extremely impressive if they can remain a manufacturing leader through this. If there is less energy, someone will have to use less energy. As far as I can tell that means either compromising living standards or giving up some heavy manufacturing. I…

The energy use per capita can also indicate that people use less energy because of more careful consumption, modern appliances etc. I wouldn't see it as "wow, there is no electricity in Germany!!!".

There are some policies applied here since years such as the mandatory use of LED lights ( do they still sell non-led? Can't remember to be honest), etc. In the last 2 years alone it was crazy the amount of renovations in terms of eco-friendly measurements in terms of electricity/gas (things like deutsche bahn changing the bulbs to use LEDs, not a small company I mean). Etc.

On the contrary, I see it as a positive thing: you can have a good modern lifestyle with less energy consumption.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#24

Post by nradov »

roenxi wrote: post #5

Germany's energy production is below 1970s levels and their per capita figures are in a grim state [0]. As with much of Europe, it makes for worrying reading. It would be extremely impressive if they can remain a manufacturing leader through this. If there is less energy, someone will have to use less energy. As far as I can tell that means either compromising living standards or giving up some heavy manufacturing. I…

It's not just energy, but availability of cheap natural gas as a feedstock for the chemicals industry. That had been a key input for a large fraction of German heavy industry. Those sectors are now shrinking in Germany and expanding in other countries which have more gas.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/germany-energy-trans...

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#25

Post by JumpCrisscross »

achates wrote: post #12
_Microft wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Add a few other countries to the list and see how their curves look almost the same as Germany's... (The situation is not much different on the other graphs) https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/per-capita-energy-use?tab... Edit: Here's the same (semi-randomly chosen) set of countries, applied to the same article (see parents [0]-link) in full: https://ourworldindata.org/energy/country/germany?country=DE...

The US has also lost its lead in manufacturing during the same time period.

> US has also lost its lead in manufacturing during the same time period

On a relative basis, yes. In absolute terms we are close to our pre-financial crisis peak [1].

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PRMNTO01USQ661N

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#26

Post by throwaway220033 »

dependsontheq wrote: post #15
roenxi wrote: post #5

Germany's energy production is below 1970s levels and their per capita figures are in a grim state [0]. As with much of Europe, it makes for worrying reading. It would be extremely impressive if they can remain a manufacturing leader through this. If there is less energy, someone will have to use less energy. As far as I can tell that means either compromising living standards or giving up some heavy manufacturing. I…

It really makes no sense to look at per capita figures this way. I am driving an electric car in Germany now and I built a new home with better insulation and I have LED lights. My per capita figures went way down, I am also taking my cargo bike in the city everywhere, so my per capita figures went down again. There's a very relevant question about the viability of energy intensive industries in Germany, but even tha…

Congrats being an exemplary citizen but how does your electric car and cargo bike play role in Germany's manufacturing?

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#27

Post by Neil44 »

hcfman wrote: post #2

I still don't see this as being a valid reason for disavantaging the planet. Like they did in the EU when the Belgiam politicial managed to get a tax imposed to make solar panels more expensive from Chain. One would expect Germanies business to be thriving now. But to make solar panels artificially more expensive for any reason at all is extreme folly for the planet if anyone cares about that.

Because the 'just buy everything from china' strategy is risky and shortsighted. If you have zero local manufacturing capability you are under china's power.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#28

Post by cinntaile »

jddj wrote: post #22
_Microft wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Add a few other countries to the list and see how their curves look almost the same as Germany's... (The situation is not much different on the other graphs) https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/per-capita-energy-use?tab... Edit: Here's the same (semi-randomly chosen) set of countries, applied to the same article (see parents [0]-link) in full: https://ourworldindata.org/energy/country/germany?country=DE...

Without speaking to whether or not it's valid conjecture, it's become necessary to treat any Germany is dying material with a little extra skepticism due to it being used as a polemic talking point about what happens when you go all in on renewables, etc.

It serves as a good signal, it makes it easy to know who you can simply ignore.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#29

Post by mk89 »

lenerdenator wrote: post #21
roenxi wrote: post #5

Germany's energy production is below 1970s levels and their per capita figures are in a grim state [0]. As with much of Europe, it makes for worrying reading. It would be extremely impressive if they can remain a manufacturing leader through this. If there is less energy, someone will have to use less energy. As far as I can tell that means either compromising living standards or giving up some heavy manufacturing. I…

> German politicians should have taken their energy security more seriously back in the 2010s. Energy security AND national security. It was insane to build an economy on natural gas from a country with a long history of imperialism and autocracy, but Germans did it anyways. To be fair, the US did much the same with China with regards to manufacturing. The US was begging its NATO allies across the Atlantic to have a…

To be even more fair, US is still buying uranium from Russia...

Anyway, that's how it is. The german economy profited quite well from the cheap gas. It was actually a strong decision to drop it, as the economy has a lot of heavy industry that apparently requires gas/oil. We will see how it goes in the next 5-10 years.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#30

Post by skrebbel »

roenxi wrote: post #5

Germany's energy production is below 1970s levels and their per capita figures are in a grim state [0]. As with much of Europe, it makes for worrying reading. It would be extremely impressive if they can remain a manufacturing leader through this. If there is less energy, someone will have to use less energy. As far as I can tell that means either compromising living standards or giving up some heavy manufacturing. I…

A country’s energy production is driven mostly by demand. Your argument is “Germans use less energy, therefore it’s going badly”. I think this is a very outdated worldview, equating energy consumption with growth.

There’s been lots of technology development across the board that lets people have the same comfort, or businesses the same production, with lower energy consumption. I don't think you can just assume that those are a rounding error.

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