Live data from Hacker News

Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)

electrek.co

61–70 of 73 posts

Re: Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)

#61
post #5

So will car manufacturers lower the price of electric cars or will they just pocket the difference?

Markets open to competition from BYD will see massive price drops.

Or governments will impose more import taxes to counter Chinese government sponsored price dumping.

Re: Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)

#62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You skipped the complex heat pump system needed to regulate battery pack temperatures (and used for cabin temps as well). BMW i4,i5,i7,iX built in mid to late 2023 use an outsourced system that widely failed in cold temps. Tesla has a famously ingenious simpler but efficient custom in house design.

This kind of comment is perplexing to me. I'm always really confused why people try to claim heat pumps are complicated because they're not really (especially compared to many of the systems in ICE cars). Most cars have even already contained a heat pump for many decades (an air conditioner is exactly the same, just moving heat the opposite direction. It literally takes one extra valve to make it bi-directional). The…

The complexity and ingenuity in the Tesla heat pump system is the octovalve, not the heat pump. 8 different places to source/sink heat, with different set points. Keep the battery, motor, interior each at different optimal temperatures with a single heat pump.

Re: Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)

#63
post #35

As soon as that happens we will start to see the road tax somehow added on to our daily driving cost and the savings made by using electricity will be greatly reduced due to this tax making EV's just marginally better for cost. But we need to pave the roads somehow so I do expect this to happen and am okay with it.

I tried pointing this out in an ev thread and got downvoted. The expense of driving is really maintaining the roads. Sounds like you’ve actually looked at the price components of gas and understand why they’re so outrageous. My personal prediction is all those carbon taxes on gas transfer over to evs and get renamed to something else.

Electric cars already pay more in taxes and fees in 36 states than gasoline cars do.

https://www.atlasevhub.com/data_story/ev-drivers-in-36-state...

Re: Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)

#64
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

openpilot is an open source advanced driver assistance system that works on 250+ car models of Toyota, Hyundai, Honda, and many other brands https://www.comma.ai/openpilot

Can I run their software on Tesla?

There are examples of this, yes [0]. The phrase "run . . . on Tesla" might have different meanings. OpenPilot is not installed directly on the Tesla hardware (as far as I'm aware). OpenPilot runs on separate hardware that communicates over the car's network, typically CAN bus [1]. An analogy might be attaching USB devices to a laptop, which has its own video, sound, keyboard, and pointer; but for which a user might desire some other feedback and control method.

0. https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/say-hello-to-an-fsd-...

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CAN_bus

Re: Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)

#65
post #55
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One-pedal mode exists on many EVs, wherein: A person can drive around (and come to a complete stop) without ever touching the brake pedal. If that isn't brake by wire, then what is?

that's assisted brakes. -by-wire means there is a control with no physical connection to . for example, older tesla cars can steer themselves, but the steering wheel still connects to the front wheels mechanically. The newer cybertruck has a steer-by-wire. The wheels are turned side to side by motors, but the steering wheel is not mechanically hooked to it, it's just an electronic controller.

It sounds more like brake-by-wire alongside a regular brake pedal.

Re: Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)

#66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This kind of comment is perplexing to me. I'm always really confused why people try to claim heat pumps are complicated because they're not really (especially compared to many of the systems in ICE cars). Most cars have even already contained a heat pump for many decades (an air conditioner is exactly the same, just moving heat the opposite direction. It literally takes one extra valve to make it bi-directional). The…

The complexity and ingenuity in the Tesla heat pump system is the octovalve, not the heat pump. 8 different places to source/sink heat, with different set points. Keep the battery, motor, interior each at different optimal temperatures with a single heat pump.

Yep. the non octovalve complex of separate valves and tubes between is where the BMW outsourced design failed.

Re: Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)

#67

I know most people don’t believe this, but it is likely that electric cars have a good chance of becoming far cheaper than ICE cars over the coming 5-10 years. EVs are complex, but in ways that are much more subject to economies of scale. For example, much of their value is in the software, which replicates for nearly zero marginal cost. Electric motor assembly is highly automatable and a fraction of the cost of asse…

I'm in the US and I don't see any current manufacturer lowering their price over time. They'll either have higher margins or they'll just add more features to raise the price. Average car price in 2002 was ~$19k. Adjusted for inflation is ~$33k. Average car price in 2024 is $48k. If a company was run in a more sane way where they want to provide cars at a reasonable price where the company can pay it's employees a fa…

I'm curious whether the increasing popularity of SUVs is skewing the average cost upward. There appear to be numerous sedans available in the market priced between the mid-$20,000s and low $30,000s, so the average figure of $48,000 seems somewhat inflated.

Re: Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)

#68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm in the US and I don't see any current manufacturer lowering their price over time. They'll either have higher margins or they'll just add more features to raise the price. Average car price in 2002 was ~$19k. Adjusted for inflation is ~$33k. Average car price in 2024 is $48k. If a company was run in a more sane way where they want to provide cars at a reasonable price where the company can pay it's employees a fa…

US vehicle margins are in steep decline, and competition is fierce. Sorry but your comment is in opposition to reality. Any company who could do what you say, produce good cars cheaply, would be an instant hit.

I'm not disagreeing with what you're saying but your comment is the one that's not in reality. Yours is a hypothetical since it's not happening, and maybe not possible.

Re: Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)

#69
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm in the US and I don't see any current manufacturer lowering their price over time. They'll either have higher margins or they'll just add more features to raise the price. Average car price in 2002 was ~$19k. Adjusted for inflation is ~$33k. Average car price in 2024 is $48k. If a company was run in a more sane way where they want to provide cars at a reasonable price where the company can pay it's employees a fa…

> I'm in the US and I don't see any current manufacturer lowering their price over time. Have you checked Tesla prices over the last 12 months?

No, but after having checked it looks like prices have dropped but also go up and down so word is still out if they keep dropping on scale or if it's just stock price shenanigans.

https://www.skills.ai/tesla-car-prices-analysis/

Re: Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)

#70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm in the US and I don't see any current manufacturer lowering their price over time. They'll either have higher margins or they'll just add more features to raise the price. Average car price in 2002 was ~$19k. Adjusted for inflation is ~$33k. Average car price in 2024 is $48k. If a company was run in a more sane way where they want to provide cars at a reasonable price where the company can pay it's employees a fa…

I'm curious whether the increasing popularity of SUVs is skewing the average cost upward. There appear to be numerous sedans available in the market priced between the mid-$20,000s and low $30,000s, so the average figure of $48,000 seems somewhat inflated.

That's a good point. Could also be because of EVs being much higher priced?
Post reply on HN