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Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)

electrek.co

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Re: Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)

#31

Post by hackerlight »

andrewmcwatters wrote: post #29
hefferbub wrote: post #16

I know most people don’t believe this, but it is likely that electric cars have a good chance of becoming far cheaper than ICE cars over the coming 5-10 years. EVs are complex, but in ways that are much more subject to economies of scale. For example, much of their value is in the software, which replicates for nearly zero marginal cost. Electric motor assembly is highly automatable and a fraction of the cost of asse…

> For example, much of their value is in the software, which replicates for nearly zero marginal cost. People have been saying this for decades now and conveniently forget that replacing CD cases with Internet downloads doesn't eliminate the fact that software engineering is expensive in itself. Crazy how TurboTax isn't $5 or Tesla FSD doesn't come standard. So much for zero marginal cost.

Still, the cost per unit will decrease as the number of units increases, which was the point.

Re: Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)

#34

Post by hackerlight »

PaulKeeble wrote: post #20

This year is looking pretty interesting for batteries. We have the Li-on potentially dropping to $100 a KWH, that will probably also mean LifePO4 will probably come down to below $100, maybe $80 and then the introduction of Sodium Ion this year which is meant to get down to $40 a KWH. So far Sodium Ion isn't delivering on that price drop, while the cars are all cheap but not yet really available the actual cells for…

Has anyone projected levelized cost of energy (renewables & storage) with these assumptions around storage costs plugged in?

Re: Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)

#35

Post by 14 »

As soon as that happens we will start to see the road tax somehow added on to our daily driving cost and the savings made by using electricity will be greatly reduced due to this tax making EV's just marginally better for cost. But we need to pave the roads somehow so I do expect this to happen and am okay with it.

Re: Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)

#36

Post by andrewmcwatters »

hackerlight wrote: post #31
andrewmcwatters wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For example, much of their value is in the software, which replicates for nearly zero marginal cost. People have been saying this for decades now and conveniently forget that replacing CD cases with Internet downloads doesn't eliminate the fact that software engineering is expensive in itself. Crazy how TurboTax isn't $5 or Tesla FSD doesn't come standard. So much for zero marginal cost.

Still, the cost per unit will decrease as the number of units increases, which was the point.

You can say the same thing about any product mass produced.

Re: Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)

#37

Post by refulgentis »

hackerlight wrote: post #31
andrewmcwatters wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For example, much of their value is in the software, which replicates for nearly zero marginal cost. People have been saying this for decades now and conveniently forget that replacing CD cases with Internet downloads doesn't eliminate the fact that software engineering is expensive in itself. Crazy how TurboTax isn't $5 or Tesla FSD doesn't come standard. So much for zero marginal cost.

Still, the cost per unit will decrease as the number of units increases, which was the point.

There isn't really a reason to expect a significant effect, in practice, Tesla COGS/unit plateaued a few 100K ago. It's a bit too abstract and high-level.

Batteries specifically does make sense, ex. Model X has 100 kWh battery. if I price out 100 kWh at $200 right now (high) and its $100 a decade from now, about $20K.

"Software" is hand-waving.

Electric motors being easier does make sense.

Re: Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)

#38

Post by ssl-3 »

pests wrote: post #25
beached_whale wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I want the year 2010 car experience with some of the EV benefits. So electric motor/battery/charging/steer and break by wire/classic dials for speed/classic climate control controls/classic signalling and lighting controls/... Maybe Carplay/Android Auto, but no tracking or operating controls that are touch screens. Also, a way to disable the display with a button.

I don't think anything is brake by wire, even that Lexus has a failsafe mode that ultimately is a direct physical connection. No saving parts there yet.

One-pedal mode exists on many EVs, wherein: A person can drive around (and come to a complete stop) without ever touching the brake pedal.

If that isn't brake by wire, then what is?

Re: Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)

#39

Post by refulgentis »

hackerlight wrote: post #34
PaulKeeble wrote: post #20

This year is looking pretty interesting for batteries. We have the Li-on potentially dropping to $100 a KWH, that will probably also mean LifePO4 will probably come down to below $100, maybe $80 and then the introduction of Sodium Ion this year which is meant to get down to $40 a KWH. So far Sodium Ion isn't delivering on that price drop, while the cars are all cheap but not yet really available the actual cells for…

Has anyone projected levelized cost of energy (renewables & storage) with these assumptions around storage costs plugged in?

I'm sure _someone_ has, there's a lot of people and spreadsheets out there. :)

Re: Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)

#40

Post by dzhiurgis »

andrewmcwatters wrote: post #29
hefferbub wrote: post #16

I know most people don’t believe this, but it is likely that electric cars have a good chance of becoming far cheaper than ICE cars over the coming 5-10 years. EVs are complex, but in ways that are much more subject to economies of scale. For example, much of their value is in the software, which replicates for nearly zero marginal cost. Electric motor assembly is highly automatable and a fraction of the cost of asse…

> For example, much of their value is in the software, which replicates for nearly zero marginal cost. People have been saying this for decades now and conveniently forget that replacing CD cases with Internet downloads doesn't eliminate the fact that software engineering is expensive in itself. Crazy how TurboTax isn't $5 or Tesla FSD doesn't come standard. So much for zero marginal cost.

Both of your examples are kind of monopolies

Is there any car software that’s “open”?

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