I mean, I would also love to see a server rack battery at $99 per kwh, but of a different chemistry, LiFePO4, I wouldn't trust having any other type of lithium battery at home.
Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)
11–20 of 73 posts
Re: Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)
#12So will car manufacturers lower the price of electric cars or will they just pocket the difference?
there's enough competition in the EV sector for margins to remain fairly low. o saw a chart once. Tesla is the only one with big margins, i remember.
Margins aren't just low, many times they're negative! Rivian is losing something like 30% of the sales price each car. Tesla's margins used to be some of the best in the entire auto industry at like 25%, but are slimming down to 17% now.
Re: Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)
#13What’s never explained here is the why. Is the market for the raw materials cheaper because there is a decrease in demand or an increase in supply of raw materials in the market? Articles that hand wave it as “due to inflation” are a bit frustrating.
I mean, there clearly isn’t a decrease in demand; electric car sales globally continue to increase. LFP batteries getting more common might be one factor; they have lower materials cost than conventional lithium ion batteries.
Re: Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)
#14What’s never explained here is the why. Is the market for the raw materials cheaper because there is a decrease in demand or an increase in supply of raw materials in the market? Articles that hand wave it as “due to inflation” are a bit frustrating.
I think there's been a big scaleup of capacity that's coming on-line exactly as BEVs are declining in popularity.
Correction: There is a big scaleup of capacity that's coming online exactly as BEVs are growing in popularity slower than many previous forecasts (hence lots of press about some carmakers having to scale back BEV production, while still moving more BEVs than last year). That is a US-centric statement. BEV demand is still quite explosive in China and Europe.
https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/articles/fotw-1329-febr...
Re: Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)
#15What’s never explained here is the why. Is the market for the raw materials cheaper because there is a decrease in demand or an increase in supply of raw materials in the market? Articles that hand wave it as “due to inflation” are a bit frustrating.
Initially raw materials were anticipated to be hard to come by, competive forward contracts put up prices as "shortages were forecast" and mining companies went hell for leather to open new lithium (and other elements required) prospects ...
Recently (last six months) it has become clear that more raw prospects were opened than actual demand existed for (glut of future supply), as a result a number of 'fresh' lithium mines have been recently shuttered.
In the post mining concentrate processing game ground has been broken on several processing plants that take mined concentrates and produce usuable raw minerals - Tesla in Texas, for example, now has a pipelined spodumene processing plant and adjoining battery manufacturing facility that will soon be completed.
Much of this flux from expensive to cheaper comes about from the interplay of forward contracts - it takes 18 months and more to bring new mines to production, to bring processing plants to completion, etc.
What's behind the drastic downturn in nickel and lithium prices, and what does it mean?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-26/examining-the-drastic...
Re: Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)
#16I know most people don’t believe this, but it is likely that electric cars have a good chance of becoming far cheaper than ICE cars over the coming 5-10 years.
EVs are complex, but in ways that are much more subject to economies of scale.
For example, much of their value is in the software, which replicates for nearly zero marginal cost. Electric motor assembly is highly automatable and a fraction of the cost of assembling engines. There are no emission control systems, fuel systems, exhaust systems.
That leaves battery materials and construction, and these are dropping fast. Goldman Sachs just predicted pack-level prices will be below $100 KWh by 2025 and continue dropping by 11% per year throughout the decade.
In fact, BYD already sells a perfectly-reasonable EV in China for around $11,000 US equivalent.
There will, of course, always be premium priced EVs in the market, but I believe the lower bound of the market will be much lower than the Corollas, Tercels and Honda Fits of today.
Re: Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)
#17I know most people don’t believe this, but it is likely that electric cars have a good chance of becoming far cheaper than ICE cars over the coming 5-10 years. EVs are complex, but in ways that are much more subject to economies of scale. For example, much of their value is in the software, which replicates for nearly zero marginal cost. Electric motor assembly is highly automatable and a fraction of the cost of asse…
I'm a little afraid "economies of scale" will turn into a steering wheel one or two pedals and an ipad, no other controls.
Re: Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)
#18I know most people don’t believe this, but it is likely that electric cars have a good chance of becoming far cheaper than ICE cars over the coming 5-10 years. EVs are complex, but in ways that are much more subject to economies of scale. For example, much of their value is in the software, which replicates for nearly zero marginal cost. Electric motor assembly is highly automatable and a fraction of the cost of asse…
I'm a little afraid "economies of scale" will turn into a steering wheel one or two pedals and an ipad, no other controls.
I really hope automakers don't start embracing touchscreens even more. Tactile feedback / muscle memory is important for safer operation. At least Mazda seems to get that[1], if only others would get over their minimalism obsession. Would embrace regulations requiring physical controls for most common tasks.
[1]: https://www.motorauthority.com/news/1121372_why-mazda-is-pur...
Re: Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)
#19Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think there's been a big scaleup of capacity that's coming on-line exactly as BEVs are declining in popularity.
Correction: There is a big scaleup of capacity that's coming online exactly as BEVs are growing in popularity slower than many previous forecasts (hence lots of press about some carmakers having to scale back BEV production, while still moving more BEVs than last year). That is a US-centric statement. BEV demand is still quite explosive in China and Europe. https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/articles/fotw-1329-febr…
> BEVs are growing in popularity slower than many previous forecasts
I've spent a fair amount of time looking for such a forecast that was actually more aggressive than the real popularity.
Your own link only shows a rather big increase in EV sales in the US, not a decrease, and it doesn't show any missed forecasts.
There was definitely a flurry of bad mass media articles about how the traditional car makers were scaling back their plans. But the facts in these articles were either extremely stilted and biased, or the facts in the articles directly contradicted the headlines.
For whatever reason, the car majors decided they wanted to tamp down on EVs in the media, and editors came through in spades with deceptive articles.
Re: Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)
#20This year is looking pretty interesting for batteries. We have the Li-on potentially dropping to $100 a KWH, that will probably also mean LifePO4 will probably come down to below $100, maybe $80 and then the introduction of Sodium Ion this year which is meant to get down to $40 a KWH.
So far Sodium Ion isn't delivering on that price drop, while the cars are all cheap but not yet really available the actual cells for sale on aliexpress and alibaba are all a lot more expensive than LifePO4 at the moment. The 13450 cells at 10Ah instead of the 15Ah for LifePO4 and at the moment are also 5x the price. Its just gouged early pricing currently but it should bring the price of home storage and car batteries down less than half of Li-on and LifePO4 but with a lower density.
Interesting year for batteries and EVs, lots of EVs cheaper than ICE vehicles coming out this year as a result.