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Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)

electrek.co

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Re: Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)

#41

Post by SnorkelTan »

14 wrote: post #35

As soon as that happens we will start to see the road tax somehow added on to our daily driving cost and the savings made by using electricity will be greatly reduced due to this tax making EV's just marginally better for cost. But we need to pave the roads somehow so I do expect this to happen and am okay with it.

I tried pointing this out in an ev thread and got downvoted. The expense of driving is really maintaining the roads. Sounds like you’ve actually looked at the price components of gas and understand why they’re so outrageous.

My personal prediction is all those carbon taxes on gas transfer over to evs and get renamed to something else.

Re: Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)

#42

Post by doctor_eval »

andrewmcwatters wrote: post #29
hefferbub wrote: post #16

I know most people don’t believe this, but it is likely that electric cars have a good chance of becoming far cheaper than ICE cars over the coming 5-10 years. EVs are complex, but in ways that are much more subject to economies of scale. For example, much of their value is in the software, which replicates for nearly zero marginal cost. Electric motor assembly is highly automatable and a fraction of the cost of asse…

> For example, much of their value is in the software, which replicates for nearly zero marginal cost. People have been saying this for decades now and conveniently forget that replacing CD cases with Internet downloads doesn't eliminate the fact that software engineering is expensive in itself. Crazy how TurboTax isn't $5 or Tesla FSD doesn't come standard. So much for zero marginal cost.

ICEs have software too, including multiple units to manage the various ICE systems that an EV doesn’t need.

Re: Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)

#43

Post by silvestrov »

andrewmcwatters wrote: post #29
hefferbub wrote: post #16

I know most people don’t believe this, but it is likely that electric cars have a good chance of becoming far cheaper than ICE cars over the coming 5-10 years. EVs are complex, but in ways that are much more subject to economies of scale. For example, much of their value is in the software, which replicates for nearly zero marginal cost. Electric motor assembly is highly automatable and a fraction of the cost of asse…

> For example, much of their value is in the software, which replicates for nearly zero marginal cost. People have been saying this for decades now and conveniently forget that replacing CD cases with Internet downloads doesn't eliminate the fact that software engineering is expensive in itself. Crazy how TurboTax isn't $5 or Tesla FSD doesn't come standard. So much for zero marginal cost.

You forget that CDs were much more expensive than LPs even when CDs were cheaper to produce and distribute.

The music companies simply got too greedy and now their market has imploded and most people only pay for Spotify.

We might get a rerun of asian producers dominating the car market and making a panic in USA car makers.

Re: Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)

#44

Post by stubish »

izzydata wrote: post #5

So will car manufacturers lower the price of electric cars or will they just pocket the difference?

Someone will grab the low end, currently served by cheap ICE cars and the second hand market. Premium and prestige brands will of course continue to charge premium and prestige prices, because that is their market.

Re: Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)

#45

Post by jjtheblunt »

hefferbub wrote: post #16

I know most people don’t believe this, but it is likely that electric cars have a good chance of becoming far cheaper than ICE cars over the coming 5-10 years. EVs are complex, but in ways that are much more subject to economies of scale. For example, much of their value is in the software, which replicates for nearly zero marginal cost. Electric motor assembly is highly automatable and a fraction of the cost of asse…

You skipped the complex heat pump system needed to regulate battery pack temperatures (and used for cabin temps as well).

BMW i4,i5,i7,iX built in mid to late 2023 use an outsourced system that widely failed in cold temps. Tesla has a famously ingenious simpler but efficient custom in house design.

Re: Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)

#46

Post by stubish »

ranger_danger wrote: post #28

Don't worry, prices will be back up soon enough: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39705926

Manufacturers continuing to use low cost imported parts instead of high cost US manufactured parts will cause prices to increase?

Re: Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)

#47

Post by vitorgrs »

lancesells wrote: post #22
hefferbub wrote: post #16

I know most people don’t believe this, but it is likely that electric cars have a good chance of becoming far cheaper than ICE cars over the coming 5-10 years. EVs are complex, but in ways that are much more subject to economies of scale. For example, much of their value is in the software, which replicates for nearly zero marginal cost. Electric motor assembly is highly automatable and a fraction of the cost of asse…

I'm in the US and I don't see any current manufacturer lowering their price over time. They'll either have higher margins or they'll just add more features to raise the price. Average car price in 2002 was ~$19k. Adjusted for inflation is ~$33k. Average car price in 2024 is $48k. If a company was run in a more sane way where they want to provide cars at a reasonable price where the company can pay it's employees a fa…

That's because the U.S stops Chinese cars.

I'll give example on Brazil. Cars were ridiculous expensive lately. Then BYD came in.

There were rumors of them launching Seagul (they call Dolphin Mini here) for R$ 100k.

Renault had Kwid E-tech for R$ 142k. They had to lower TO R$ 100k. They had to cut 30% out of nowhere because of Chinese competition.

GWM and Chery is also going well here as far I know.

Re: Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)

#48

Post by ianai »

stubish wrote: post #26
lancesells wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm in the US and I don't see any current manufacturer lowering their price over time. They'll either have higher margins or they'll just add more features to raise the price. Average car price in 2002 was ~$19k. Adjusted for inflation is ~$33k. Average car price in 2024 is $48k. If a company was run in a more sane way where they want to provide cars at a reasonable price where the company can pay it's employees a fa…

Watch Australia. I feel the same way about the incumbent manufacturers and their pricing and chasing the higher end market. But BYD has come and captured a huge chunk of the EV market, and that is before releasing their low cost vehicles.

They could really only do that as long as zero interest rates and relative wages permitted. Frankly I think they made luxury EVs to justify the battery costs early in the production.

The automotive industry is known for bad margins. Interest rates go up, willingness to pay for large ticket items goes down. We won’t see anything like 0 percent rates for possibly 100 years.

One interesting outcome: near shoring of production drives local labor wages up for the long, permanent term. Maybe more in India/Mexico than the US, but still significant. And better for all than the past.

Re: Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)

#49

Post by WheatMillington »

lancesells wrote: post #22
hefferbub wrote: post #16

I know most people don’t believe this, but it is likely that electric cars have a good chance of becoming far cheaper than ICE cars over the coming 5-10 years. EVs are complex, but in ways that are much more subject to economies of scale. For example, much of their value is in the software, which replicates for nearly zero marginal cost. Electric motor assembly is highly automatable and a fraction of the cost of asse…

I'm in the US and I don't see any current manufacturer lowering their price over time. They'll either have higher margins or they'll just add more features to raise the price. Average car price in 2002 was ~$19k. Adjusted for inflation is ~$33k. Average car price in 2024 is $48k. If a company was run in a more sane way where they want to provide cars at a reasonable price where the company can pay it's employees a fa…

US vehicle margins are in steep decline, and competition is fierce. Sorry but your comment is in opposition to reality. Any company who could do what you say, produce good cars cheaply, would be an instant hit.

Re: Electric car battery prices are going back down faster than expected (2023)

#50

Post by plantwallshoe »

14 wrote: post #35

As soon as that happens we will start to see the road tax somehow added on to our daily driving cost and the savings made by using electricity will be greatly reduced due to this tax making EV's just marginally better for cost. But we need to pave the roads somehow so I do expect this to happen and am okay with it.

Marginal improvement? The gas tax is my state is relatively high at $.50/gal. If I have to pay that back directly to the state we’re still looking at like $12 vs $70 to charge a battery vs fill a gas tank. On top of that take away most of the engine maintenance costs and you’re coming out way ahead.
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