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OpenAI and Elon Musk

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961–970 of 1001 posts

Re: OpenAI and Elon Musk

#961

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a classic case of "once a metric becomes a target, it ceases to be a good metric" To clarify, Google defines the metrics by which pages are ranked in their search results, and since everyone want to be at the top of Google's search results, those metrics immediately become targets for everyone else. It's quite clear to me that the metrics Google have introduced over the year have been meant to improve the qualit…

In a bit broader sense this situation is created by "enshitification", term coined by Cory Doctorow. Google itself, as a platform, has an incentive to rank higher sites that produce more ad spend. Googles has no incentive to rank "good" (by whatever definition) sites high, that do not spend money on ads themselves or do not contain ad space.

I think they do have at least some incentive to rank good results highly. Why use a search engine if it's no good at finding relevant stuff?

And if no one is using the search engine, who's gonna see all those ads?

Of course, they do have other incentives too, some of which are directly conflicting with high quality search results, as you point out.

I suppose one could argue that their near-monopoly in the search business has allowed them to be somewhat negligent on the quality of search, but now that there are a few competitors at least somewhat worthy of the name, one can hope high quality results will be a higher priority.

Anyway, I'm holding out hope someone will one day manage to train a LLM to distinguish between quality content and SEO bullshit, and then put that to use in a search engine.

I'm not well versed enough in the current status of LLM's to make a prediction on how hard that will be, but my impression is that we're a fair ways off from any LLM being able to do that well enough to be valuable.

I'd really love to be proven wrong on this one, if you're reading this and have some relevant experience, consider yourself challenged! (feel free to rephrase this last bit in your head to whatever motivates you the most)

Re: OpenAI and Elon Musk

#962
post #347

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I pay cents for GPT4. Please I urge everyone to stop paying this ridiculous $20 monthly fee if you just occasionally use chatGPT.

Well, on that note: how do you use GPT4, and how do you pay cents for it?

I use the API + playground which is essentially the chat interface. The API charges per-token and is then cheap. Unless you're a heavy user, it's tough to get to even a few dollars. Just don't use GPT4 and paste oodles of text, and you'll be fine.

Re: OpenAI and Elon Musk

#963

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LLMs aren't improving at things they're unable to do at all. An example being reasoning.

LLMs can reason. You can verify this empirically by asking questions which require reasoning to e.g. GPT-4.

There is evidence that they actually can't reason:

https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.00871

https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.13638

https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.09247

https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.18654

https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.01809

Re: OpenAI and Elon Musk

#965
post #716

Regardless of who is right here, I think the enormous egos at play make OpenAI the last company I’d want to develop AGI. First Sam vs. the board, now Elon vs. everyone … it’s pretty clear this company is not in any way being run for the greater good. It’s all ego and money with some good science trapped underneath.

Who runs a company “for the greater good”?

Surely, anyone taking on and enduring the pain of running a company does so for egoistic reasons.

Your implicit assumption is that altruism exists. In the limit, every living being is egoistic. Anything you do is ultimately for egoistic reasons - even if you do it “for others” at first sight, it ultimately benefits you in some way, even only to make you feel better.

A common misconception is that “egoism is bad”. Egoism doesn’t have to be bad. If the goals align it’s a net benefit for both sides. For example, a child might seek care, while parents seek happiness. Both are egoistic, but both benefit from each other.

Re: OpenAI and Elon Musk

#966
post #633

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why could it not be 15 years for the cultural stuff and 10 years worth of paperwork process, I can imagine an LLM cutting that process in half if it involved hiring and training staff, or waiting for staff to become free from other work to build said paperwork. Out of everything they said in that email, the 5.5 years isn't something I'd pick on given, as you noted, the crazy timelines we're talking about to even be a…

Because these are made up numbers. No one knows how long it takes to change culture. The paperwork stuff is not like filling in a tax return, it's actually creating laws that fit into the Albanian legal system but implement EU legislation, and then passing those laws. It's defining new economic measures, getting those numbers, and then formulating legislation to improve them, and then actually implementing that legis…

Surely everyone sensible knows an estimate when they see one? All estimates are made up numbers friend, how much flour you use in bread is a made up number too, how long you cook an egg, how fast should a speed limit be set...sure, based on some form of realty, but all estimated are made up numbers. So lets go to that "some form of reality" we derived that made up number form: https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/albania-to-sp... - Seems reasonable, no?

Picking on a number based on it's "made upness" is a fool's errand, pick on the assumptions of it's basis in reality.

Re: OpenAI and Elon Musk

#967
post #966

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because these are made up numbers. No one knows how long it takes to change culture. The paperwork stuff is not like filling in a tax return, it's actually creating laws that fit into the Albanian legal system but implement EU legislation, and then passing those laws. It's defining new economic measures, getting those numbers, and then formulating legislation to improve them, and then actually implementing that legis…

Surely everyone sensible knows an estimate when they see one? All estimates are made up numbers friend, how much flour you use in bread is a made up number too, how long you cook an egg, how fast should a speed limit be set...sure, based on some form of realty, but all estimated are made up numbers. So lets go to that "some form of reality" we derived that made up number form: https://www.euractiv.com/section/politic…

"All models are wrong", but some models are more wrong than others. My estimate for how much flour I'm going to put in the bread is going to be way, way more accurate than your estimate of how many years ChatGPT shaved off Albanian EU process.

I just can't get over the absurdity of even attempting to estimate - in 0.1 decimal years - how many years tool X shaves off of a totally non quantifiable complex real world process.

And I can't get over the absurdity of seeing multiple people here defending this bullshit.

Re: OpenAI and Elon Musk

#968
post #966

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Surely everyone sensible knows an estimate when they see one? All estimates are made up numbers friend, how much flour you use in bread is a made up number too, how long you cook an egg, how fast should a speed limit be set...sure, based on some form of realty, but all estimated are made up numbers. So lets go to that "some form of reality" we derived that made up number form: https://www.euractiv.com/section/politic…

"All models are wrong", but some models are more wrong than others. My estimate for how much flour I'm going to put in the bread is going to be way, way more accurate than your estimate of how many years ChatGPT shaved off Albanian EU process. I just can't get over the absurdity of even attempting to estimate - in 0.1 decimal years - how many years tool X shaves off of a totally non quantifiable complex real world pr…

That's fair!! I accept it.

I'd hazard a guess that all the people here, people like me, "defending this bullshit" - are probably professionally estimators - I am anyway, so I suppose I personally take particular offense to picking on estimates. However, I will never fight that some estimates are superior to others, that is indeed a fact. A good conversation regardless, and isn't that why we're all here? Have a great day Atte. :)

Re: OpenAI and Elon Musk

#969
post #882

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does “train AGI” even mean dude

It means to run the back-prop algorithm to train neural networks to solve the problem(s) of AGI. Dude.

No it’s a scapegoat to justify doing whatever and using a meme word so that sci-fi fans will accept that whatever. The fact you’re eating it up here is pure cringe, grow up. These people took a non-profit with an egalitarian mission and reversed course once they saw they could make fuck you money. The “AGI” excuse is one only the immature are buying. Dude.

Re: OpenAI and Elon Musk

#970
post #889

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unless the problem-in-question is Adjusted Gross Income, I don't think you're talking about a well-defined issue in the first place. That's kinda the problem; even half-definitions like "meets or exceeds human performance in all tasks" doesn't specify what those tasks are or what human performance represents. In other words, targeting "AGI" is a ill-defined goalpost that you can move anywhere you want, and shareholde…

GOOD GRIEF. You're right, AGI is not well defined. But it is perfectly well defined for the purposes of this conversation. Working in this space (however you want to say it) costs a lot of money. Everyone knows this. You nitpicking definitions does not change that.

No you missed the point in that the definition being vague, and an implication of magical tooling, was my point when I asked what that even means. By saying this they can now right off any criticism and people like you clearly eat it up.
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