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Alexei Navalny has died

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Re: Alexei Navalny has died

#951
post #38

People calling for the US to do more against Russia, be careful what you wish for. You have no idea how close the US is to a draft. The US has been woefully low at filling military recruiting quotas. Keep in mind both presidents during WWI and WWII campaigned to keep us out of those wars. Any major conflict like that will most certainly require a draft. Better keep your saber rattling to a minimum. Though the percent…

I don't know much about the US but I assumed you don't have draft since the Vietnam war? And this is why USA army has to actually produce cool ads as opposed to Russian army who just takes people. Are you suspecting that the law would be changed to enable draft? Or maybe I'm confusing draft and conscription, are those different?

>I don't know much about the US but I assumed you don't have draft since the Vietnam war? And this is why USA army has to actually produce cool ads as opposed to Russian army who just takes people.

You are correct. Conscription and the draft are essentially the same. I believe conscription is when you enter military service regardless of wartime, while the draft is explicitly to fill ranks. I could be wrong on that though.

>Are you suspecting that the law would be changed to enable draft?

Yes, if we get into a large scale war without the ability to recruit enough volunteers, most certainly. Currently our recruiting numbers are way down. The US has had a draft/conscription throughout most of its history. Current times since 1973 are an anomaly.

Also, the law is already in place. Every male citizen, when they turn 18 must register with the Selective Service, which is responsible for the draft.

However, conscription remains in place on a contingency basis; all male U.S. citizens, regardless of where they live, and male immigrants, whether documented or undocumented, residing within the United States, who are 18 through 25 are required to register with the Selective Service System.[2][3] United States federal law also continues to provide for the compulsory conscription of men between the ages of 17 and 44 who are, or who have made a declaration of intention to become, U.S. citizens, and additionally certain women, for militia service pursuant to Article I, Section 8 of the United States Constitution and 10 U.S. Code § 246.[4][5][6]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conscription_in_the_United_Sta...

In fact, reinstitution the draft is required by law:

A national emergency, exceeding the Department of Defense’s capability to recruit and retain its total force strength, requires Congress to amend the Military Selective Service Act to authorize the President to induct personnel into the Armed Forces.

https://www.sss.gov/about/return-to-draft

The term for a person who pushes for war without any intention of serving themselves is called a Chickenhawk. I'm just reminding all the people who are pushing for escalation with Russia that if war happens, they will likely be drafted and aren't just sending the mostly poor kids to fight their war. To those people I say, be careful what you wish for.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chickenhawk_(politics)

Re: Alexei Navalny has died

#952

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, I support funding Ukraine 100% for that very reason, but consider what happens when Ukraine runs out of troops. Russia has a 3:1 advantage. https://ifstudies.org/blog/the-demography-of-war-ukraine-vs-...

Consider what happens when the Taliban runs out of troops. The United States has a 28:1 advantage.

>Consider what happens when the Taliban runs out of troops. The United States has a 28:1 advantage.

The US conquered and held Afghanistan for 20 years and we could have done it for another 20+ years, we just lost the political will to do so. I'm in total agreement with getting out of Afghanistan, as ugly as it was.

Re: Alexei Navalny has died

#953
post #542

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>the depleted Russian military They aren't depleted. They've suffered 300K casualties, they have 24,700,000 left of fighting age. Also keep in mind Russia has no qualms about putting women in front line combat roles. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrain... Also, Iran seems like they want to get involved. They've been selling Russia arms during the conflict. They have about 17 million people of…

> they have 24,700,000 left of fighting age Without equipment, logistics and ammo to support it it's a dead weight. Also, it's very interesting that you omitted Gulf War, which would be the most similar conflict in terms of power dynamics. 4th by strength military in the world in war against large coalition of countries that is led by USA.

>Without equipment, logistics and ammo to support it it's a dead weight.

Russia is an industrial country. They managed to build more tanks than anybody in WWII and this was while being invaded.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_industry_in_World_War_I...

>Also, it's very interesting that you omitted Gulf War, which would be the most similar conflict in terms of power dynamics.

Most of the Iraqi soldiers surrendered as soon as they saw coalition forces. Only the Republican Guard remained to fight and they were only around 75K. I doubt the Russians will surrender en masse like the Iraqi regular army did.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iraqis-surrendering-in-hordes

Re: Alexei Navalny has died

#954

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The upcoming 2024 election cycle will be one for the history books, regardless of outcome. And that outcome can be incredibly bad. I said it before, if Trump gets a second term, he will have a third. And then democracy as we know it in the Western world will be dead.

> I said it before, if Trump gets a second term, he will have a third. And then democracy as we know it in the Western world will be dead. It’s not so simple. The Democratic party strategy has been to use hypothetical situations like this to justify (to the public) the arrests, ballot disqualification, deplatforming, and any other unprecedented means to hinder the chances of Trump winning in a fair election. They alr…

>> Rules for thee, not for me.

And you were sooooo close... A pitty, really...

Re: Alexei Navalny has died

#955

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are more oppositional figures, they’re simply barred from entry because it’s not a real democracy. Russia is not gaining noteworthy traction. Avdiivka is a tiny pointless place aside from the fact that Russia is willing to impale itself at horrible odds to achieve any victory it can for optics.

>> Avdiivka is a tiny pointless place "Both sides regard Avdiivka as key to Russia's aim of securing full control of the two eastern "Donbas" provinces - Donetsk and Luhansk. These are among the four Ukrainian regions Russia says it has annexed but does not have full control of. Avdiivka is seen as a gateway to Donetsk city, whose residential areas Russian officials say have been shelled by Ukrainian forces, sometime…

Go read any actual war analysis. It is not a strategically important place. Donetsk City is not realistically a significant target in the foreseeable future.

Russia cares immensely about optics because Putin has demanded a military victory in time for the march elections. This has been publicly reported on since at least October.

Re: Alexei Navalny has died

#956
post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting statement. Sources please.

If I had insight into confidential information, I would be busy commuting between my real estate in Spain, Switzerland, and Dubai, instead of arguing with you.

Without sources, it's simply slander.

Re: Alexei Navalny has died

#957
post #833

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Avdiivka is a tiny fraction of all of Ukraine, but it's still noteworthy that Russia is making significant progress there, and pushing in at other points on the whole front. Ukraine's lines aren't at imminent risk of collapsing, but they have a pretty serious shortage of artillery shells and other equipment, and it's taking a toll. If the U.S. were still supplying Ukraine they'd be in a much better place.

It’s not that noteworthy though. Russia cannot sustain the war effort at this cost and this pace for the entirety of Ukraine. It’s a really small place with minor strategic value. Incessant meat waves do eventually work buts it’s not a winning strategy. “Sustain” is a really funky term that’s hard to define. Like, they can keep refurbing tanks. They can keep funneling out meat. But they can’t replace the ships. They…

[dead]

Re: Alexei Navalny has died

#958
post #545

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is a paper tiger. They are fated to be weak due to demographics. They’re now beating Japan in the race to become the world’s largest retirement home.

They still have a pretty large economy and are building up militarily. Even so they seem less belligerent than the Russians.

At the moment. What matters more is how the coming decade unfolds.

Re: Alexei Navalny has died

#959

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Putin has cancer and Father Time is undefeated. There’s reason for much optimism in the world.

In the early 2000's it was rumored in the west that Putin's health was poor. In 2008 the Pentagon authored a study that claimed that Putin had Asperger’s disease. In 2010 there were more rumors about his bad health after being photographed with a black eye. In 2012, more rumors after he postponed a visit to Japan. In 2014 "sources" reported that he had cancer of the spinal cord. Other "sources" denied that report, an…

He’s 71, that’s the meaning of my Father Time is undefeated comment. And I’ve seen the videos of his hands shaking and having to hold onto tables at summits. I do think there is something to the cancer rumors. Either way, no dictator lives forever!

Re: Alexei Navalny has died

#960

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Invading a well-armed Europe is almost impossible.” Funny, the world had the same thought in 1936.

War is fundamentally different now than it was at the beginning of WW2. A nuclear superpower cannot be invaded. You can poke the bear A LOT, but basically everyone recognizes that a ground invasion is crossing a red line. That's the purpose of NATO. In exchange for giving up some autonomy to the US (letting the USA build military bases in your territory, not acting overtly against our interests), and paying us for ou…

“War is fundamentally different now than it was at the beginning of WW2. A nuclear superpower cannot be invaded.”

You are right on the former, incorrect on the latter. Invasion looks different now that warfare has changed. You might have been invaded and not even know it. When was the last time you looked at your ssh logs?

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