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Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

forbes.com

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Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#311

Post by airstrike »

givemeethekeys wrote: post #283
yCombLinks wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The forward PE is 31 for AMD, and Nvidia is at 33. Apple's forward PE is 26. The market prices are based on future expectations. Nvidia is expected to increase earnings by something like 3x, and AMD by 10X

How does one find information on forward P/E? Are there historical forward P/E charts to get some context on whether the current prices are expensive / in-line with how tech is valued over the past ten.. twenty years? Thanks!

Generally, any forward metric is the consensus (mean) of analyst estimates, unless you have your own model for what you think it will be (in which case you probably are still callibrating it around the street's view)

Since you aren't going to have an account with every broker to get their research, instead you'd sign up for one of Capital IQ, FactSet or Bloomberg which aggrgate the info for you and are listed here in increasing order of price and quality

Banks would have the chart you're looking for but they're fairly easy to recreate if you have the data. (Source: I worked in M&A for nearly a decade in such banks)

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#312

Post by hatenberg »

TillE wrote: post #204
dave_sullivan wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm personally not a fan of NVIDIA's drivers or the reliability of their hardware. As compared to AMD or Intel? I wish there was real competition to Nvidia but there isn't. I'm not a fan of their defacto monopoly but they do have the best product on the market and their competition has been asleep for 10 years. AMD and Intel barely knew what deep learning was 10 years ago (and certainly did not appreciate the oppor…

Ten years ago, Intel was the leader in chip fabrication technology. Things can change fast. Intel has already been making good low-end GPUs (with lousy but rapidly-improving drivers). If they're smart, they'll keep at it.

Intel wasted the last decade because they elected a shareholder optimizing CEO who chose to prioritize shareholder payouts and attempts at controllig the ecosystem rather than pushing it forward over investments.

Now they're completely outclassed by TSMC and have to partner with UMC to compete.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#313

Post by Valakas_ »

wbsun wrote: post #70
MuffinFlavored wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Somehow I wish it weren't true because I hate monopolies in any markets. If you peel the layers back... isn't the real monopoly ASML?

I am always wondering why ASML hasn’t got any antitrust lawsuits for their monopoly.

It's not ASML's fault that 20 years ago when Martin van den Brink (CTO) went full steam to develop EUV everyone laughed at him saying EUV would be impossible to achieve. Their monopoly is well deserved. Other companies have a few years to catch up for full fault of their own.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#314

Post by dns_snek »

eastbound wrote: post #233
acchow wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Big tech and AI startups would buy all the 4090's in existence if they had NVLink. You would not be able to find one for gaming without a multiple x markup

So we’re deeply hampering our AI startups, limiting their growth and possibilities by jacking up the prices x10, to reserve some silicium only for gamers which could perfectly be used for AI? Maybe gamers can wait and the next technological leap should have priority?

I'd say it would be mutually beneficial if AI startups just skipped the part where they produce nothing of value despite having access to every resource, and skip ahead to the part where they go out of business.

Your AI startup has a 0.1% chance of becoming successful (going by SV definition of success, as yet another rent-seeking, privacy-abusing SaaS) while millions of gamers have a 99.9% chance of enriching their lives with entertainment. Statistically that's just the reality of this situation if you insist on being utilitarian.

We keep the GPUs, Nvidia keeps a diverse customer base, and you don't have to waste years of your life doing self-important busywork. Deal?

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#315

Post by mizzack »

jumploops wrote: post #45

The crypto bubble (circa 2017/2018 [0]) looks like an ant hill compared to the recent Gen AI-based gains! $68/share in August 2018 would be $722/share today. [0] https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/08/22/the-cryptocurrency...

There was also a 4:1 split in there. So, $68 -> $2888.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#316

Post by FirmwareBurner »

iraqmtpizza wrote: post #309
FirmwareBurner wrote: post #306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then offshore offices would be more and larger. You can't really stop capital flight by banning migration. Corporations are more mobile than workers.

Nope. H-1Bs allow bringing in people from a dozen countries and having them together in an American office. Moving the company to a worse tax and legal environment with worse latency and worse food and weather and entertainment and prestige doesn't mean those workers will all leave their home countries and move there instead. Nor would the locals necessarily even allow that. EDIT: bro, you're the one that said corpor…

Who said about moving the company? If you open another office offshore yoiu don't move the company. The HQ still stays in the US.

>EDIT: bro, you're the one that said corporations are mobile, not me

I say it and you misunderstand it. Mobile as they can open an office in any country, not move the HQ alltogethere.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#317

Post by whaleofatw2022 »

philistine wrote: post #222
namlem wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah exactly. AMD has other markets to compete in. Their desktop, laptop, and handheld offerings are incredible right now. I assume they are also going to replace Nvidia for the Switch 2.

Nope. Nintendo is sticking with Nvidia. I'll eat my hat if they don't.

It would be just a little surprising, since so far they have a pretty bad track record with 3rd parties.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#319

Post by Fyrezerk »

eru wrote: post #134
ein0p wrote: post #91

As much as I’d like to say it’s overpriced, its only potential competitor, AMD, is even more overpriced with an eye watering P/E of 324 as of right now, three times that of NVIDIA. Such numbers are stark raving insanity for hardware companies. For comparison, Apple, fully in possession of the world’s most valuable brand, and a gigantic money printer powered by a loyal, billion+ user strong customer base, and a deep p…

Feel free to short sell both?

Is this the only reply you can come up with in this post? Maybe some people want to have legitimate discussions on valuations.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#320

Post by relativ575 »

hatenberg wrote: post #312
TillE wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ten years ago, Intel was the leader in chip fabrication technology. Things can change fast. Intel has already been making good low-end GPUs (with lousy but rapidly-improving drivers). If they're smart, they'll keep at it.

Intel wasted the last decade because they elected a shareholder optimizing CEO who chose to prioritize shareholder payouts and attempts at controllig the ecosystem rather than pushing it forward over investments. Now they're completely outclassed by TSMC and have to partner with UMC to compete.

The point is that thing can change. Intel was king a decade ago. TSMC is on the summit at the moment. Intel can be back in a few years if their plan works out:

https://www.xda-developers.com/intel-roadmap-2025-explainer/

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